羅賓斯管理學(xué)ppt(英文9版)management-6

1、© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Decision-Making: The Essence of the Manager’s Job,Chapter6,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–2,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow this Learn

2、ing Outline as you read and study this chapter.,The Decision-Making ProcessDefine decision and decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.The Manager as Decision MakerDiscuss the

3、assumptions of rational decision making.Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment.Explain intuitive decision making.Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.,©

4、 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–3,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,The Manager as Decision Maker (cont’d)Contrast the three deci

5、sion-making conditions.Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches.Describe the four decision making styles.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases managers may exhibit.Describe how manager can

6、 deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases.Explain the managerial decision-making model.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–4,L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this

7、Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,Decision Making for Today’s WorldExplain how managers can make effective decisions in today’s world.List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process.

8、Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–5,Decision Making,DecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making ProcessIde

9、ntifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the dec

10、ision’s effectiveness.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–6,Exhibit 6–1The Decision-Making Process,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–7,Step 1: Identifying the Problem,ProblemA

11、 discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the

12、 authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–8,Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria,Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant

13、) to resolving the problem.Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm),Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria,

14、Decision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights

15、 reserved.,6–9,Exhibit 6–2Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–10,Step 4: Developing Alternatives,Identifying viable alternativesAlternatives a

16、re listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.,Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives,Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknessesAn alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues

17、identified in steps 2 and 3.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–11,Exhibit 6–3Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–12,S

18、tep 6: Selecting an Alternative,Choosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.,Step 7: Implementing the Alternative,Putting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decisi

19、on to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–13,Exhibit 6–4Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,,,© 2007 Pre

20、ntice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–14,Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness,The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the

21、chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–15,Exhibit 6–5Decisions in the Management Functions,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rig

22、hts reserved.,6–16,Making Decisions,RationalityManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.H

23、ave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.Have a clear and specific goalWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal i

24、nterests.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–17,Exhibit 6–6Assumptions of Rationality,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–18,Making Decisions (cont’d),Bounded RationalityManager

25、s make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfice—choose the firs

26、t alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Influence on decision makingEscalation of commit

27、ment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–19,The Role of Intuition,Intuitive decision makingMaking decision

28、s on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–20,Exhibit 6–7What is Intuition?,,,Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Myst

29、ery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 91–99.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–21,Types of Problems and Decisions,Structured ProblemsInvolve goals

30、 that clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete.Programmed DecisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine appr

31、oach.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–22,Types of Programmed Decisions,PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a m

32、anager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–23,Policy,

33、 Procedure, and Rule Examples,PolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit pu

34、rchases are refunded for cash.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–24,Problems and Decisions (cont’d),Unstructured ProblemsProblems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or in

35、complete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed DecisionsDecisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserve

36、d.,6–25,Exhibit 6–8Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–26,Decision-Making Conditions,CertaintyA situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision

37、because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.RiskA situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.,©

38、2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–27,Exhibit 6–9Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift,,,ExpectedExpected×Probability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy sno

39、wfall $850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5= 362,500Light snowfall 350,0000.2= 70,000 $687,500,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–28,Decision-Making Condi

40、tions,UncertaintyLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”.Maximax: the optim

41、istic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

42、 rights reserved.,6–29,Exhibit 6–10Payoff Matrix,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–30,Exhibit 6–11Regret Matrix,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–31,Decision-Making Styles,

43、Dimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinkingRational, orderly, and consistentIntuitive, creative, and uniqueTolerance for ambiguityLow tolerance: require consistency and orderHigh tolerance: multiple though

44、ts simultaneously,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–32,Decision-Making Styles (cont’d),Types of Decision MakersDirectiveUse minimal information and consider few alternatives.AnalyticMake careful

45、decisions in unique situations.ConceptualMaintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions.BehavioralAvoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.,© 200

46、7 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–33,Exhibit 6–12Decision-Making Matrix,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–34,Exhibit 6–13Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,,,© 2007 Prentice

47、 Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–35,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,HeuristicsUsing “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.Overconfidence BiasHolding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s pe

48、rformance.Immediate Gratification BiasChoosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–36,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (c

49、ont’d),Anchoring EffectFixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.Selective Perception BiasSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions.Confir

50、mation BiasSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–37,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d),Framing Bias

51、Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability BiasLosing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation BiasDrawing analogies a

52、nd seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness BiasCreating unfounded meaning out of random events.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–38,Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d),Sunk C

53、osts ErrorsForgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving BiasTaking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.Hindsight Bia

54、sMistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–39,Exhibit 6–14Overview of Managerial Decision Mak

55、ing,,,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–40,Decision Making for Today’s World,Guidelines for making effective decisions:Understand cultural differences.Know when it’s time to call it quits.Use an e

56、ffective decision-making process.Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs)Are not tricked by their success.Defer to the experts on the front line.Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.Embrace comple

57、xity.Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–41,Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process,It focuses on what is important.It is logical and con

58、sistent.It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.It encoura

59、ges and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.,© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,6–42,Terms to Know,decisiondeci

60、sion-making processproblemdecision criteriarational decision makingbounded rationalitysatisficingescalation of commitmentintuitive decision makingstructured problemsprogrammed decisionprocedurerule,policyunst