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1、May23201909:00PMg@AttractiveMGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDShengZhongEQUITYANALYST85222397821ElsieShengEQUITYANALYST85239630475ChinaEducationAsiaPacificIndustryViewWhatsChangedFROMTOChinaMapleLeafEducationalSystemsLtd(1317.HK)Rat
2、ingUnderweightEqualweightBrightScholarEducationHoldingsLtd(BEDU.N)RatingEqualweightUnderweightPriceTargetUS$10.50US$9.00RYBEducationInc(RYB.N)RatingEqualweightUnderweightPriceTargetUS$8.50US$6.50ChinaEducationGroupHoldin
3、gsLtd(0839.HK)PriceTargetHK$0.00HK$14.90RatingNAOverweightYuhuaEducation(6169.HK)PriceTargetHK$0.00HK$4.10RatingNAOverweightChinaNewHigherEducationGroupLtd(2001.HK)PriceTargetHK$0.00HK$3.80RatingNAOverweightWisdomEducati
4、on(6068.HK)PriceTargetHK$0.00HK$4.10RatingNAEqualweightChinaEducationChinaEducation||AsiaPacificAsiaPacificBeiveonSchoolOperatsInitiateonCEGYuhuaatOWWepreferhighereducationwhereprogramqualityoperationslocationwillbekeydi
5、fferentiatsaregulatychangeasfprofitregistrationunfolds.WearecautiousonK12givenregulatyrisk.CEGYuhuaareourtoppicks.IndustrystructuraltrendsfavhighereducationoverK12:Webelievethehighereducationspaceismefavablefschooloperat
6、sthanK12given:(1)populationenrollmenttrends(2)privateschoolspositioningintheeducationsystem(3)upcomingregulatychanges.Compulsyeducation(Grades19)isfullyperatedweexpectthetrendsofincreasinggovernmentfiscalspendingtighterr
7、egulationtoachievemeequalityfjunieducation.ThatsaidsomeregionalopptunitiesstillexistsuchasWisdominGuangdongprovince.Fmedetailsrefertoourindustryrept.Overweighthighereducationplayers:WeinitiatecoverageofChinaEducationGrou
8、p(CEG)YuhuaEducationChinaNewHigherEducation(CNH)eachatOW.CEGisatopqualityhighereducationlistcobenefittingfromfavableschoollocationssolidschoolqualityastrongbalancesheetwhichiskeyfMithasstrongerneartomediumtermprofitgrowt
9、hasmostofitsschoolsareinGuangdongprovincewheredemishighitsvaluationisreasonable.Ourpricetargetsarebasedonprobabilityweightedscenariovalues–weapplya45%weightingtoourbearcasesfK12schooloperats.Riskscatalysts:Theexpectedrel
10、easeofofficialPrivateEducationPromotionimplementationregulationisanimptanteventfschooloperatsthoughthetimelineisstillunclear.ButwethinkhighereducationisstillinabetterpositionrelativetoK12.FhighereducationM(2)itsgearingis
11、alreadyhighat47%F18debttoequity[DE])therearestillcapexrequirementstobuildnewschools(~Rmb500600mncapexperschool)(3)givenits100%exposuretoK12weestimate~40%impacttoadjustedprofitinF20ifnotfprofitschoolsprofitdoesnotbelongto
12、shareholdersthiswouldbethehighestsuchlevelamongpeerswecover.OurpricetargetisHK$4.1whichwederivebyassigning5%50%45%probabilitiestoourBullBaseBearcaseDCFvalues.Ourbearcaseassumescompulsyeducation(Gr19)schoolscannotbeconsol
13、idatedoperationalrisk.Ourpricetargetimplies18xour2019EPSestimateaoneyearfwardPEGratioof1.0xslightlyaboveschooloperatpeersaverage17x.WeliftourratingtoEWonMapleLeafaftertherecentprice.MapleLeafhighschooltuitionfeesfell3.4%
14、YoYinF1H19highschoolenrollmentwasdown9%to7898despitetheadditionoftwonewhighschools(ShenzhenAdelaideAustralia)fromendAug2018.Preschoolprimarydleschoolenrollmentgrowthisstillhealthy(up44%in1H19)butweareconcernedaboutthehig
15、hschoolenrollmentoutlookasthenewhighschoolagepopulationinChinawillbeflatinthecomingeightyears.WehavereducedourrevenueestimatesfF1921onslowerexpansionofitstuitionfees.WeraiseouroperatingmarginfecastsinF19toreflectimproved
16、operatingefficiency.Theresultisa5%upwardrevisiontoF19adjustedprofitbuta9%downwardrevisiontoF20adjustedprofit.Giventherecentsharepricewebelievethenegativeshavelargelybeenpricedin.WereduceourpricetargettoHK$3.0whichisderiv
17、edbyassigning5%50%45%probabilitiestoourBullBaseBearcaseDCFvaluesourbearcaseassumescompulsyeducation(Gr19)schoolscannotbeconsolidatedoperationalrisk.Keyriskstoachievingourpricetargetinclude:stricterthanexpectedmelenientpo
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