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1、investmentresearchThisrepthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAustraliaLtd.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE34.TherecommendationsinthisreptarebasedonUBSsproprietaryquantitativemodels.Theserecommendationsaremad

2、eindependentlyoftherecommendationsofUBSsfundamentalequityresearchanalysts.UBSdoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffectth

3、eobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.??GlobalResearch7September2018TheFutureofActiveManagementHowdoestechnologicaldisruptionaffectactivemanagersStructurally

4、lowergrowth:TechnologicaldisruptioniseverywhereWehaveenteredawldofstructurallylowerglobalgrowth.Increasinglyweexpecttoseecompaniesfocusonproductivityenhancingtechnologyinaneffttooutperfmcompetits.Techdisruptiondrivesoppt

5、unitiesfactivemanagersTechdisruptiondrivesdispersionofreturnscreatingopptunitiesfactivemanagersbothacrosswithinsects.Howevervalueislikelytostruggleinawldofgreaterdispersionwhilstqualitygrowthmomentumarelikelytoperfmwell.

6、WhichsectsarelikelytobedisruptedTheobviousansweristhetechnologyconsumersects.Howeverwehighlightanovelprocessfidentifyingtheeconomicimpactacrosssectscountries.HowdoweidentifydisruptivestocksWedrawonthewkofZweigLynchOShaug

7、hnessytocreateamodelthatidentifiescompaniesthatarelikelytobedisruptswithintheirsects.OverallthemodeloutperfmstheWldmarketby6.3%perannumwith7.3%trackingerr.Pleaseseetheattachedmodelfalistofpotentialdisrupts.Figure1:Perfma

8、nceoftheFundamentalGrowthmodellongonlyexcessreturns(DJWld(allcountry))Source:FactsetUBSQuant0%50%100%150%200%250%300%199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018TotalreturnEquitiesGlobalQuantitativePaulWinterAnalystp

9、aulj.winter@61293242080OliverAntrobusCFAAnalystoliver.antrobus@61392426467BhanuBawejaStrategistbhanu.baweja@442075686833LukeBrownCFAAnalystluke.brown@61293243620JosieGerkenPhDAnalystjosephine.gerken@442075683560DavidJess

10、opAnalystdavid.jessop@442075679882ClaireJonesCFAAnalystclairec.jones@442075681873NathanLukAssociateAnalystnathan.luk@61293243496PieterStoltzCFAAnalystpieter.stoltz@61293243779GegeTharenouEconomistgege.tharenou@6129324352

11、0ShanleWuPhDAnalystshanle.wu@85229717513TheFutureofActiveManagement7September2018??3ExecutivesummaryThereisnoquestionweareinawldofstructurallylowergrowth.Drivenprimarilybydemographicheadwindsthatareunlikelytoabatefanothe

12、rtenyears.Asaconsequencecompaniesareturningtoproductivityenhancingtechnologiesinaneffttodisrupttheircompetits.Thisisnotnewwehavebeenherebefeasusualwhilsthistydoesntrepeatitcertainlyrhymes.TheFirstIndustrialRevolutionwhic

13、hbeganinBritaininthelate1700smovedlabouroutofweaverscottagesintocottonmills.Thefactywasbn.TheSecondIndustrialRevolutionoccurredintheearly1900swithHenryFdintroducingtheassemblylinetothewldsobegananeraofmassproduction.TheT

14、hirdIndustrialRevolutionranfromtheearly1980sthroughtothestartofthiscenturywasfacilitatedbytechnology.Theriseofcomputingtheinterdrovetradeinservicesaswellasincreasedcapitallabourmobility.TodaytheFourthIndustrialRevolution

15、isuponus.Anumberoftechnologiesareconvergingsuchasartificialintelligencemachinelearningsmartmaterialsprecisionroboticscloudbasedservicesinaneffttodeliverarangeofhighlycustomisedproductsservices.AsaconsequencetheFourthIndu

16、strialRevolutionlookssettodrivemasscustomisation.Thisislikelytodriveasignificantincreaseinwealthconcentrationastechnologyreplacesroutinejobs.Asaconsequenceofthesetechnologiescompaniestodayareabletocreatesignificantlygrea

17、tervaluefromlowercapitalbasesthaneverbefe.WecanobservethisgloballyhoweveritismostprevalentthusfarintheUSEuropeintheConsumerIndustrialsFinancialsHealthcaresects.Thisdispersionofreturnscreatesopptunitiesfactivemanagers.Fir

18、stlyasdisruptionoccursdispersionofreturnsislikelytoincrease.Howevervalueislikelytostruggleinawldofgreaterdispersionwhilstqualitygrowthmomentumarelikelytoperfmwell.WhichsectsshouldwefocusoninthefutureWehighlightauniquepro

19、cessfthinkingabouttheeconomicimpactacrosssectscountriesusingWldInputOutputTables.ThishighlightsAccommodationFoodServiceRetailLTransptRealEstateassectsripefdisruption.Thedevelopedmarketssttowearahigherlevelofeconomicimpac

20、tthantheemergingmarkets.HowdoweidentifydisruptivestocksWedrawonthewkofMartinZweigPeterLynchJamesOShaughnessytocreateamodelthatidentifiescompaniesthatarelikelytobedisruptswithintheirsects.OverallthemodeloutperfmstheWldmar

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