房地產(chǎn)外文翻譯--全球金融危機(jī)下的中國房地產(chǎn)（英文）

1、 1257The Real Estate of China under the Global Financial Crisis CUI Xuezhu1 WANG Yaowu2 Abstract: Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the Chinese economic is falling into a disappointing season and also its rea

2、l estate market has already shown a depressing situation. In order to expand the domestic demand, ten pieces of plan was announced by the government on November 11th 2008. It presents the restructure of the macro-econo

3、mic policy and at the same time, the real estate policy is just in the core position, which is dominant of the whole economic situation. In this paper, the roots of financial crisis are simply analyzed firstly, and the

4、n it shows the operation and development of the real estate market in China. By describing the present situation, it puts forward some corresponding policy to prevent the real estate bubble and some other possible fina

5、ncial risks, which could make the real estate industry maintain a sustained, rapid and sound development. Key words: financial crisis, national real estate, real estate finance, developing mode. 1. INTRODUCTION On August

6、 2007, the U.S. sub-loan crisis flared up, and both the U.S. Dow Jones and NASDAQ fell sharply, which also caused strong global stock market turbulence. The crisis is not only give a heavy blow to the U.S. economy, bu

7、t also spread rapidly to the Europe and the Asian financial markets, which perform a financial crisis in the world no less than a “butterfly effect”. The impact continues now and under this circumstance, we have to ha

8、ve lessons from the U.S. sub-loan crisis to ensure the stability of the national real estate market development. 2. THE ROOTS OF FIANANCIAL CRISIS The high price level, the expansion of personal housing mortgage loan

9、and the high interest based on the excess liquidity can be seen as the main reason of this financial crisis in American. Although it originates from the real estate market and the housing mortgage loan market, the cri

10、sis has already spread to the stock market through the bond market, which had an effect on American economic and even the global financial system. The actual case in America shows that the expansion of the subprime m

11、ortgage is a necessary cause of the crisis. Because of the continued declined of long term interest by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board from 1998 to 2008, as shown in Table 1, the financial institutions has eased the te

12、rms of real estate mortgage loan, like the Zero-Yuan first payment and the completely bank financing. In this way, the total mortgage loan expanded and the amount of the subprime mortgage also increased. The people wh

13、o get the loan by poor credit became more and more (Wang 2009). Seen from the quantity, the subprime mortgage circulation of the United States is 17.811billion dollars in 1995, accounting for 5.6% of the entire loan m

14、arket share. Until 2006, the circulation reached 447.963 billion dollars, accounting for the overall market over the same period, which increased by 25 times compared with 1995. During the period from 2004 to 2006, it

15、 maintained a three- year growth rate of 20%. 1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Construction and Real Estate, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China; 150001; PH (86) 451- 89268938; Email: cuixuezhu_598@163.com 2

16、Professor, Department of Construction and Real Estate, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China; 150001; PH (86) 451- 86414008; Email: ywwanghit@vip.163.com Table 1: The Average Lending Rate from 1998 to 2008 in th

17、e U.S. Year 1-year adjustable-rate (%) 15-year fixed-rate (%) 30-year fixed-rate (%) 1988 7.94 10.15 10.45 1990 8.29 9.91 10.19 1992 5.62 8.07 8.51 1994 5.40 8.01 8.49 1996 5.84 7.58 8.03 1998 5.75 6.

18、72 7.06 2000 7.12 7.89 8.21 2002 4.89 6.11 6.65 2005 4.77 5.54 11.11 2007 6.04 6.25 6.58 2008 5.64 5.89 6.43 Source: HSH Association of the U.S. Seen from the structure, the proportion of high-quality mo

19、rtgage loans has continuously declined and on the contrary, that of the subprime mortgage has increased slowly. The self-expansion of subprime mortgage has caused the accumulation of risks and when the macro-economic

20、depressed and many borrowers unable to repay, the risk will be highlighted because of the fracture of capital chain for the subprime mortgage (Wang and Gao 2008). In general, the rapid development of the real estate i

21、ndustry can be seen as a symbol of prosperity. For the United States, the long-term prosperity of the real estate industry made the people feels their properties are continuously increased and then accelerate the con

22、sumption, stimulate the economic growth. And further more, the economic development promoted the real estate industry, which made a beneficial economic cycle. But once the chain fractured, the consequence may be devas

23、tating. Fundamentally speaking, the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States and its derivative financing crisis of the world are caused by the irrational prosperity of the real estate industry. 3. THE REAL ESTA

24、TE MARKET UNDER THE FIANANCIAL CRISIS From 1998 to 2008, the real estate market of China has already prospered for ten years. At present, facing the global financial crisis, the real estate industry of China is experi

25、encing unprecedented tensions, such as the expectancy of house purchasing has changed and most of people start to hold the “wait- and-see” attitude; the market transactions are in depression; the developers declined t

26、heir willingness to invest and the investment reduced largely. 1259estate credit were seen as a kind of good assets to develop by the commercial banks, as a result, it is easy to change or simplify some of the importa

27、nt procedure to obtain more market share. These behaviors, such as easing the loans requirements, reducing the examination steps and loosing the authenticity verify, seriously affect the security of bank assets. After

28、 years of rapid increase, the house price has already reached a high level and the real estate bubble looms. Therefore, the national commercial banks and financial institutions should learn from this setback: strict

29、examination and approval should be carried out to monitor the real estate credit, making efforts to control the real estate loans at an appropriate size, and strengthen the prevention of financial risks (Zhou 2008).

30、Second, building a multi-level mortgage market and avoiding the excessive concentration of risks. In the national real estate market, the banks have taken most of the risks as main subjects of investment. The real est

31、ate loans has accounted for a growing proportion in total bank credit, and that cause the serious losses of the banks when facing the significant decline of the real estate. Therefore, a multi-level mortgage market ca

32、n help the banks to spread the risk of excessive accumulation, and make it adapt to the market developing. But in view of the U.S. sub-loan crisis, it is just generated by the expansion of the asset securitization, an

33、d we should take a cautious approach in our mortgage business in order to prevent over-securitization. At the same time, the professional institutions concerning investment, counseling and appraisal are needed to be

34、built to improve market liquidity, spread risks and reduce systemic risk, so as to enhance market stability. Third, strengthening the credit rating assessment system as the comprehensive credit rating system is the ro

35、ot of the financial derivative innovation. Because the lack of the basic collection system of personal credit will cause the problems concerning the limitation of the risk control, the confusion in market orientation

36、 and the inadequate binding force. Therefore, a sound credit rating system is to strengthen the prevention of financial risks and effectively prevent the occurrence of the information asymmetry, so as to make the nati

37、onal real estate finance develop healthy and sustainable. Forth, making effort to achieve the global coordination of financial supervision and improve the risk warning and processing capabilities. Ties in the global

38、economy, globalization has become the reason of the crisis spreading in the face of the “integration of the global economy“, so the supervision and cooperation of the cross-border and the cross-sector are needed to be

39、 promoted. Although this crisis generated from the United States has not appeased yet, since August 2007 the currency or the banking supervisory authority of the European Union, the United States, Japan, Australia an

40、d Canada have actively intervened in the market and take measures to stabilize the market, which is worthy paying attention to and learn from for us. 4.2 The Developing Mode of the National Real Estate Market At prese

41、nt, the bubble in the national real estate market has growing greater and greater after a few years soaring. Although in 2007, the Government has seen the problems lied in the real estate industry and took a number of

42、 policies to curb the real estate speculation, which has decreased the domestic real estate bubble. However, this is not a substantive change and many residents still do not have the ability to enter the real estate m

43、arket as consumers. Facing the financial crisis in 2008, the transformation of the national real estate market is also faced with unprecedented opportunities. The government has already issued the macro- economic polic

44、ies to stimulate the domestic demand and the economy, as an effective means, the construction of the policy- related houses were put on a very important position. Therefore the real estate industry is the staring point

45、 to expand the domestic demand and it is also provides a favorable environment for the national real estate market to change from the invest-led mode to the consume-led mode. As we know, the invest-led real estate ma

46、rket is not only easy to blow big bubble in real estate market, but also can not be sustained for a long time. Despite many reasons cause the U.S. financial crisis, the bursting real estate bubble is the ultimate caus

47、e of the financial crisis. Concerning the national real estate market, different from that of the U.S., but if the government does not have enough knowledge in the drawback of the investment-led development model, onc

48、e the real estate bubble inflated, it is the same risks would happen and should not be underestimated (Meng 2009, Yang 2009). Generally speaking, the adjustment of the national real estate market policies should focu

49、s on changing the invest-led market to the consume-led market. In other words, the purpose to the policy is to ensure the livelihood of the people and the consumable of the real estate. At the same time, the governmen

50、t departments must strictly limit the real estate speculation, and the real estate investment needs should not be encouraged to keep the validity of the macro-control efforts of last few years. On the other hand, the

51、 adjusted prices also have the positive side, which will take the advantages of the adjusting opportunity to release the bubbles accumulated for a few years. Therefore, the rapid decline of the real estate price in 20

52、08 and the protection of the policy-related houses will further squeezed the huge profits in real estate industry. All that may quickly improve the development of the national real estate market, so as to make the nat

53、ional real estate market develop healthy and sustainable. 4.3 The Construction of the Policy-Related House Throughout the experience of the real estate industry all over the world, the equilibrium of supply and demand

54、is of overriding importance to stabilize the house price. For China, it is the real estate market that could fight against economic crisis, and as an entry point for expanding the domestic demand, it will play an imp

55、ortant role to be a driving force in the economic development of China. But, based on a reasonable structure of policy-related houses and a consume-led real estate market, the real estate market can assume the respons

56、ibilities that expand the domestic demand. According to the practical situation of China, to speed up the building of the housing security system is no doubt the effective means to make the national real estate indust

57、ry develop healthy. It can not only meet the needs of the low-income groups, but also can make further development of the property market, which will realize the reasonable structure and the healthy development of the

58、 national real estate market. This is a long-term work and mission, and it also needs the government to deal with in a very long time. In view of the way all over the world, the modern housing security system is not

59、simply the construction of some low-cost housing, affordable housing or price-limited housing. It is a sound coverage based on the market that concerning the whole society and the residents, in which the government ca

60、n help the residents of different income to address their housing problems to achieve the healthy development of the real estate market. 5. CONCLUSIONS With the gradual spread of this financial crisis, the low market