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1、東南大學碩士學位論文基于MonteCarlo方法的地鐵系統(tǒng)可靠性仿真研究姓名：張小輝申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：載運工具運用工程指導(dǎo)教師：李旭宏20100111ABSTRCTInrecentyearsallofthebigandmediancitiesareconstructingtherailtrafficasthemainframeworkoflargetransportationmodeonebyoneinourCORnt哆111ec

2、onstructionandoperationofrailtraffichasreachedunprecedentedlevelFacingthehugenetworkofmetrolines，howtoguaranteethesafetyandoperationonscheduleofthemetrosystemisaurgentlyproblemtoberesearchdeeplyTheresearchscopeisrelative

3、tothesafetyandreliabilityareas111eforeignstudiesandexperiencearekeptprivacyanditishardtoobtainThispaperusesthespacenavigation，electronicsreliabilityanalysismethodsforreferencestosystemicanalyzingthemetrosystem’Sreliabili

4、tyFirstlythepaperdiscussedthecommonlyusedreliabilitymethodsandcomparedthecharacteristicofthedifferentmodels，SO躺theSeriesChainmodel，parallelmodel，votingmodel，mixedstockmodelsandvotingstocksmodelsThen，thethreewidelyuseddyn

5、amicreliabilityanalyzingmethodshavebeenstudied，includingthestochasticPetriNetMarkovChainmodelandtheMonteCarlosimulationmodelSecondlyfromthefivesubsystemsasvehiclesystem，powersystem，railsystem，signalsystemandcommunication

6、system，themetrosystem’ScompositionandlogicmodelshavebeenresearchedThesubsystemsstructuremodelshavebeenestablished111epaperhasdonethefunctionalanalysisofthesubsystems，andtheeffectsofthekeyequipmentsinthewholesystemhavebee

7、nmanifestedThefaultsofthemetrosystemhavebeenanalyzedindetailfromthemacroscope，andthecommonfailurehasbeenstudiedalsothefaulttreemodelhasbeenestablishedFromthemicro—scopethefailuremodeeffectandcriticalanalysishavebeendonef

8、oreachsubsystemThirdlythepapermakesgreatemphasisonthesimulationofthemetrosystem’SfaultstochasticdynamicprocessbythemethodsofMonteCarloAccordingtothatequipmentunitfailurerateobeyedthenormaldistributionandexponentdistribut

9、ion，thepapersimulatestheequipmentunit’Sfailurehappeningandlastingtime，andthealgorithmofithasbeengivenouttosolvingtheMonteCarlomethodCombinedtheanalysisofFMECAofmetrosystem，thepaperUSeSthePetrinet，reliabilityblockdiagrama

10、ndMarkovChaintoconstructthereliabilitymodelofthepowersystem，vehiclesystem，signalsystem，communicationsystemandrailsystemBywayoftheapplicationof～IATLABsoftwarethereliabilitymodelhasbeenrecededtothesimulationprogramAccordin

11、gtotheinitialparametersofsubsystems，thereliabilityresultsandconvergenceinspectionhasbeendonebytheprogram，andthemeantimebetweenfailure(MBTF)ineachfailuremodewasgivenIntheend，theconceptofsystem’SavailabilityisputforwardItl

12、inksthesystem’SreliabilitymaintenanceandavailabilityAnalyzingthemaininfluencingfactorofmetromaintenanceefficiencycombinedwiththereliabilitycomputedresults，thepapercomputedtheavailabilityofeachsubsystem，andthedifferentmai

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