主動量化研究原油篇申萬宏觀量化之原油定價分析

1、請務(wù)必仔細閱讀正文之后的各項信息披露與聲明目錄1.前言.............................................................................52.原油供給以及需求分析.................................................62.1供給................................................

2、.............................................................62.1.1OPEC剩余產(chǎn)能......................................................................................62.1.2頁巖油產(chǎn)量................................................

3、.............................................92.2需求...........................................................................................................102.2.1經(jīng)濟增速...................................................

4、............................................102.2.2PMI指數(shù)...............................................................................................112.2.3EIA原油庫存.......................................................

5、.................................142.2.4RBOB汽油WTI原油價差................................................................153.宏觀因子分析..............................................................173.1美元流動性.....................

6、.........................................................................173.1.1M2GDP...............................................................................................173.1.3LIB..............................

7、......................................................................183.2美元指數(shù)..................................................................................................203.3美債實際收益率...............................

8、.......................................................223.4通脹預(yù)期..................................................................................................233.5VIX..................................................

9、...........................................................243.6信用風(fēng)險溢價...........................................................................................263.7黃金....................................................

10、.......................................................274.美國經(jīng)濟與原油漲跌分析.............................................294.1國際原油價格與因子相關(guān)性總結(jié).........................................................294.2美國經(jīng)濟周期與原油價格.............

11、........................................................304.3美國利率周期與原油價格.....................................................................335.總結(jié).........................................................................

12、...34請務(wù)必仔細閱讀正文之后的各項信息披露與聲明表7：EIA原油庫存與BRENT原油價格............................................................14表8：EIA原油庫存與BERNT原油價格歷史周期分析.......................................15表9：RBOB汽油WTI原油價差與BRENT國際原油價格.................

13、...............16表10：M2GDP與BRENT原油價格...............................................................18表11：LIB(3M)與BRENT原油價格...........................................................19表12：LIB(3M)與BRENT原油價格歷史周期分析..........

14、............................19表13：美元指數(shù)與BRENT原油價格.................................................................20表14：美元指數(shù)與BRENT原油價格歷史周期分析............................................21表15：十年期國債實際收益率與BRENT原油價格...........

15、.................................22表16：通脹預(yù)期與BRENT原油價格.................................................................23表17：通脹預(yù)期與BRENT原油價格歷史周期分析............................................24表18：VIX指數(shù)與BRENT原油價格...........

16、......................................................25表19：VIX指數(shù)與BRENT原油價格歷史周期分析..........................................26表20：信用風(fēng)險溢價與BRENT原油價格..........................................................26表21：信用風(fēng)險溢價與BREN

17、T原油價格歷史周期分析.....................................27表22：黃金與BR原油價格........................................................................28表23：黃金與BRENT原油價格歷史周期分析...................................................29表24：國際原油

18、價格與因子的相關(guān)性................................................................29表25：美國經(jīng)濟周期下國際原油價格與相關(guān)宏觀因子的相關(guān)性（部分1）.........31表26：美國經(jīng)濟周期下國際原油價格與相關(guān)宏觀因子的相關(guān)性（部分2）.........31表27：美國利率周期與原油價格..........................................