量化原油投資手冊（一）供需篇

1、目錄一、需求端分析一、需求端分析............................................................................................................................................................................3（一）經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣分析......................

2、..........................................................3（二）原油需求分析................................................................................4二、供給端分析二、供給端分析.........................................................

3、...................................................................................................................6（一）原油產(chǎn)量分析................................................................................6（二）產(chǎn)能分析.......

4、.............................................................................7（三）上游勘探鉆井等活動(dòng)..........................................................................8三、庫存分析三、庫存分析...........................................

5、...................................................................................................................................1111（一）OECD庫存............................................................................

6、.......11（二）美國庫存...................................................................................13（三）浮倉.......................................................................................15四、天氣四、天氣.................

7、.....................................................................................................................................................................1616五、結(jié)語五、結(jié)語...........................................

8、...........................................................................................................................................1616六、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示六、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.................................................................

9、.............................................................................................................1717七、附錄七、附錄...................................................................................................

10、...................................................................................1818分析）。按照數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)際發(fā)布時(shí)間做調(diào)整，將指標(biāo)與油價(jià)作為對比（油價(jià)采用WTI首行合約CL1后文如無特別說明均按此約定）。圖3：美國：美國CLIVSGDP10415010210010098509609419951119971119991120011120031120051

11、1200711Date200911201111201311201511201711201911資料來源：OECDBloomberg（二）原油需求分析首先采用國際能源署原油需求預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)（取最近季度預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)）。圖4：原油需求及變動(dòng)：原油需求及變動(dòng)410032190018023704199611199811200011200211200411200611200811201011201211201411201611201811202011Dat

12、e431502110001502304199611199811200011200211200411200611200811201011201211201411201611201811202011Date資料來源：IEABloomberg全球原油需求從1996年1月的72.6mb（millionbarrelsperday)）增長到2019年4月100.4mdd，增長了38%。采用IEA全球原油需求變動(dòng)作為作為原油的變量，凈值結(jié)果見下圖。圖