外文翻譯--貨幣政策效應(yīng)的區(qū)域差異模式

1、<p>　　中文3380字，1930單詞</p><p>　　出 處: Crone T M. A pattern of regional differences in the effects of monetary policy[J]. Business Review, 2007 (Q3): 9-19.</p><p>　　作 者: Theodore M.Crone </p

2、><p><b>　　原 文 : </b></p><p>　　A Pattern of Regional Differences in the Effects of Monetary Policy</p><p>　　Ⅰ. Introduction</p><p>　　Although there is only one

3、national monetary policy, that does not mean that monetary policy does not affect some regions oi the "country more than others. We know that business cycles differ across states and regions, and a number of studies

4、 have examined how monetary policy may affect regions differently and why. A review of these studies reveals that certain parts of the country are consistently more affected by monetary policy than others.Identifying the

5、 reasons for regional differences in t</p><p>　　Federal Reserve officials are sometimes asked how monetary policy can help solve regional economic problems. The standard answer is straightforward; There is o

6、nly one national monetary policy, and it is no designed to address purely regional issues. This does not mean, however,that monetary policy does not affect some regions of the country more than others. Business people, c

7、ivic leaders,and government officials may want to know how much their region will be affected by changes in monetary poli</p><p>　?、? BUSINESS CYCLES DIEFER ACROSS STATES AND REGIONS </p><p>　　I

8、t is widely recognised that there are differences in business cycles across states. In some cases, it is the depths of the recessions, and in others, it is the timing of recessions. Differences in cycles across multi-sta

9、te regions in the U.S. are less pronounced than differences across individual states, but they are still discernible </p><p>　　Two recent studies have used a newly developed set of coincident indexes for the

10、 50 states to define and compare state recessions. In an earlier Business Review article, I used these indexes to examine recessions at the state level based on the traditional definition of a recession ? a significant d

11、ecline in economic activity that lasts for several months. Using the same set of indexes, in a second study, economists at the St. Louis Fed applied a standard technique, known as a Markov switching m</p><p>

12、;　　Other studies have examined the issue from a different perspective. How closely are the cyclical movements in income or employment correlated across the states? In a study published in 2001, Christophe Croux and his c

13、oauthors proposed a new statistic, called a cohesion index, which measures the co-movement of regional economies over the husiness cycle. They apply the measure to personal income in the 50 states and find that while the

14、 correspondence among the states is higher than the corresponde</p><p>　　Since husiness cycles differ across states and across regions in tbe U.S.,it is natural to ask whether differential effects of monetar

15、y policy are a factor. Answering this question requires a consistent framework to measure the effect of monetary policy on the economies of states or regions. </p><p>　?、? ESTIMATING THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF

16、MONETARY POLICY </p><p>　　In recent years economists have turned to econometric models known as vector autoregression VAR models to measure tbe effects of changes in monetary policy on states and regions.A V

17、AR is a system of equations for estimating the historical relationship between a variable, sucb as personal income in a region, hy past values of that variable and by current and past values of other variables, such as t

18、he short-term interest rate targeted by the Federal Reserve the fed funds rate.Using this type of m</p><p>　　The recent studies differ somewhat in tbeir assumptions. But all of the studies include in tbeir m

19、odels three key variables: personal income in each region, the fed funds rate, and some measure ot oil prices or commodity prices in general. Some of the models add other variables to this list, such as the rate on 10-ye

20、ar Treasury bills. In each study, the regional effects of monetary policy are measured by the response over time of the region's personal Income to an unanticipated change in the ted</p><p>　　Ideally, we

21、 would like to estimate the effects of monetary policy on each of the 50 states in a single model. But VAR models are suitable only for a limited number of variables, not the 50 plus variables tbat would be required to i

22、nclude each of tbe states in the same model. Therefore, the differential effects of monetary policy have generally been estimated by region rather than by state.' And most of the studies use the eight regions defined

23、 by the Bureau ot Economic Analysis BEA.' </p><p>　?、? The Earliest Model</p><p>　　About 10 years ago in the Business Review, Gerald Carlino and Robert DeFina published the tirst ot tbe rece

24、nt articles that used a VAR model to estimate the regional effects of monetary policy. They assume that monetary policymakers can react to a shock or unanticipated change in a region's personal income growth in the s

25、ame quarter.Personal income, however, responds to changes in monetary policy only in subsequent quarters because monetary policy affects tbe economy only after some time lag. Th</p><p>　　On the basis of thes

26、e assumptions, Carlino and DeFina estimate the cumulative response of real personal income growth in each of the eight BEA regions to an unanticipated increase in the federal funds rate.'' The maximum effect in e

27、ach region of an unanticipated change in the federal funds rate occurs after two to two-and-a-half years. In three of the eight BEA regions, the cumulative effect is significantly diffetent from the national average afte

28、r a few quarters and remains significantly diffe</p><p>　　In a recent study on grouping states into regions, I found additional support for Carlino and DeFina's findings. In the 1950s the BEA grouped con

29、tiguous states into eight regions based on a number of economic and social characteristics at that time. But there was no attempt to ensure that states in the same region had similar business cycles, an important conside

30、ration for analyzing regional business cycles. I grouped contiguous states into regions based on how closely their economies moved toge</p><p>　　Using this alternative definition of regions, I replicated Car

31、Uno and DeFina's original scudy. The same basic patcerns emerged as in the original study, but the results were stronger.The effects of monetary policy were significantly different from the national average in more r

32、egions than in the original study Figure 2. The impulse responses were more precisely estimated for the alternative regions than tor the BEA regions. The states around the Great Lakes formed the most significantly affect

33、ed</p><p>　?、? SUMMARY </p><p>　　Despite their differences, studies of the regional effects of unanticipated changes in monetary policy have revealed some consistent patterns.A greater than aver

34、age effect and in most studies the greatest effect of monetary policy are felt in the states around the Great Lakes. The weakest effect is found in the energy-producing regions, especially in the Southwest. This knowledg

35、e alone is valuable to businesses and governments in those regions</p><p>　　The hope that regional differences might help explain how monetary policy is transmitted has had only limited success. Industry mix

36、 is the only explanation for regional differences that finds support in these studies. States or regions with a high concentration of industries that are traditionally sensitive to interest rates are most affected.Any ad

37、ditional effect through a credit channel that may be operating at the national level is not reflected in the regional differences. </p><p>　　A Pattern of Regional Differences in the Effects of Monetary Polic

38、y</p><p>　　出 處: Business Review作 者: Theodore M.Crone </p><p><b>　　譯 文 : </b></p><p>　　貨幣政策效應(yīng)的區(qū)域差異模式</p><p><b>　　一、引言 </b></p><p&

39、gt;　　雖然只有一個(gè)國(guó)家貨幣政策,但這并不意味著貨幣政策并不會(huì)影響該國(guó)某些地區(qū)超過(guò)其它地區(qū)。我們知道,在商業(yè)周期不同的國(guó)家和地區(qū),一些研究人員已經(jīng)探討貨幣政策如何可能影響地區(qū)的不同,以及為什么會(huì)不同。對(duì)這些研究的審查顯示,該國(guó)某些地區(qū)更是一直比其他地區(qū)所受貨幣政策的影響更大。識(shí)別貨幣政策區(qū)域差別的原因也許可以幫助我們更好地了解貨幣政策是如何通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的。在這篇文章中,西奧多?科龍綜述了到目前為止給我們帶來(lái)了哪些研究成果。 </

40、p><p>　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員有時(shí)會(huì)要求如何用貨幣政策來(lái)幫助解決區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)答案很簡(jiǎn)單,只有一個(gè)國(guó)家貨幣政策,并且它的目的不是單純的為解決地區(qū)問(wèn)題。這并不意味著,貨幣政策不會(huì)影響該國(guó)比其他一些地區(qū)多。商界人士、民間領(lǐng)袖、政府官員可能想知道,在他們的地區(qū)中有多少地區(qū)相對(duì)于全國(guó)其他地區(qū)會(huì)受到貨幣政策的影響。我們知道在商業(yè)周期不同的國(guó)家和地區(qū),過(guò)去十年中,研究人員已經(jīng)探討了何種貨幣政策可能扮演什么樣的角色,發(fā)揮的作用??

41、也就是說(shuō),貨幣政策如何影響不同的地區(qū),以及為什么會(huì)影響。對(duì)這些研究的審查顯示,該國(guó)某些地區(qū)始終比其他地區(qū)更易受貨幣政策的影響。到目前為止,這些分歧唯一令人信服的解釋是,這個(gè)地區(qū)有不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)組合。但由于其他原因,很可能將持續(xù)下去。識(shí)別貨幣政策對(duì)區(qū)域差異影響的原因,可能有助于我們更好的理解貨幣政策是如何通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行波動(dòng)變化的。本文將回顧到目前為止研究給我們帶來(lái)哪些研究成果。 </p><p>　　二、商業(yè)周期在不同國(guó)

42、家和地區(qū)有所不同 </p><p>　　人們普遍認(rèn)為,在全州有商業(yè)周期的差異。在某些情況下,它是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的深淵,,而在其他時(shí)候,它是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時(shí)機(jī)。在全美國(guó)多數(shù)地州區(qū)域,商業(yè)周期的差異相對(duì)個(gè)別國(guó)家要不太明顯,但他們?nèi)匀豢梢员娴贸觥?</p><p>　　最近的兩項(xiàng)研究使用了新開(kāi)發(fā)的一套50個(gè)州同步指標(biāo)的定義,來(lái)定義國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的衰退狀態(tài)。在早期的商業(yè)評(píng)論文章中,我用這些指標(biāo)依據(jù)傳統(tǒng)定義來(lái)研究地

43、州級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退??經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)持續(xù)數(shù)月顯著下降。第二項(xiàng)研究中使用同一套索引,在圣路易斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家采用的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)技術(shù),作為著名的馬爾科夫轉(zhuǎn)換模型,以確定每個(gè)國(guó)家商業(yè)周期的不同階段。這兩篇文章發(fā)現(xiàn),50個(gè)州都經(jīng)歷了從其人數(shù),時(shí)間和嚴(yán)重程度上不同的商業(yè)周期。 </p><p>　　其他的研究也從不同的角度探討了這個(gè)問(wèn)題?？缰輩^(qū)域如何密切地在收入或就業(yè)方面做周期性運(yùn)動(dòng)?在2001年發(fā)表的一項(xiàng)研究中,克里斯托夫和他的合作

44、者提出了一種新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),稱(chēng)為凝聚力指數(shù),用來(lái)測(cè)量商業(yè)周期區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)動(dòng)。他們適用于測(cè)量50個(gè)州的個(gè)人收入,并且發(fā)現(xiàn),各州之間的書(shū)信往來(lái)比歐洲國(guó)家之間的相對(duì)要高,但并非十全十美。在2004年的文章中,杰拉德?卡利諾和羅伯特?德菲納用可供使用的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出了38個(gè)國(guó)家中8個(gè)主要產(chǎn)業(yè)群體的就業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)值是相同的。它的價(jià)值將預(yù)示著整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量完全相關(guān)。因此,對(duì)于一個(gè)行業(yè)的凝聚力指數(shù),每季度隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)周期在全州地區(qū)的循環(huán)比例來(lái)增長(zhǎng)或降低就

45、業(yè)。研究期間,制造業(yè)中采礦的凝聚力測(cè)量范圍從0.82到0.44。因此,地州主要產(chǎn)業(yè)在整個(gè)商業(yè)周期中有不同狀態(tài)。多國(guó)區(qū)域間的收入和就業(yè)共同運(yùn)動(dòng)趨勢(shì)要強(qiáng)于地州間的共同運(yùn)動(dòng),但同樣不是十全十美。事實(shí)上,一些國(guó)家共同來(lái)消除一些商業(yè)周期的個(gè)別特征,但仍舊消除不了它們。 </p><p>　　由于商業(yè)周期在美國(guó)跨區(qū)域的狀態(tài)不同,人們自然會(huì)問(wèn),貨幣政策不同的影響是否是同一個(gè)因素引起的。回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題需要一個(gè)在統(tǒng)一的框架下,來(lái)衡量

46、貨幣政策對(duì)國(guó)家或地區(qū)影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)效果。 </p><p>　　三、估算貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng) </p><p>　　近年來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向以向量自回歸模型這種計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模式來(lái)測(cè)量貨幣政策在國(guó)家和地區(qū)的影響變化。向量自回歸模型是用來(lái)估算變量之間關(guān)系的一個(gè)方程組,例如一個(gè)地區(qū)的個(gè)人收入,要估算這個(gè)變量的過(guò)去值和當(dāng)前值以及與過(guò)去值其他變量的關(guān)系,又如由美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)確定的短期利率(即聯(lián)邦基金利率)。用這種類(lèi)型的

47、模型,我們可以估算出聯(lián)邦基金未預(yù)料到的變化對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)收益率的影響。這種效應(yīng)被稱(chēng)為脈沖響應(yīng)。當(dāng)然,這些估計(jì)的不同將由哪些變量被包含于模型中,并且做出了什么假設(shè)而定。例如,貨幣政策的變化在當(dāng)期或者只在以后的階段對(duì)收入有影響?一個(gè)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)溢出直接沖擊了其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體? </p><p>　　最近的研究中有不同的假設(shè)。但是所有的研究都包括他們模型中的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵變量:各個(gè)區(qū)域的個(gè)人收入、聯(lián)邦基金利率、石油價(jià)格或者一

48、般商品價(jià)格的測(cè)量。其中一些模型還添加了其他變量,例如10年期的國(guó)庫(kù)券利率。在每個(gè)研究中,貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)是基于區(qū)域個(gè)人收入對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率意想不到的變化所作出的反應(yīng)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的。該模型對(duì)聯(lián)邦基金利率意外變化所造成的對(duì)個(gè)人收入的影響,至少存在一個(gè)季度的差距。 </p><p>　　最理想的情況是,我們?cè)敢庥靡粋€(gè)模型區(qū)估計(jì)50個(gè)州貨幣政策所產(chǎn)生的各自效果。但向量自回歸模型僅僅適用于有限的變量,而不是需將每個(gè)地州的變量都包

49、括在同一個(gè)模型里。因此,貨幣政策的差別效應(yīng)通常是由地區(qū)估計(jì)而不是國(guó)家。并且大多數(shù)研究都會(huì)利用這8個(gè)由經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局定義的區(qū)域。 </p><p><b>　　四、最早的模型 </b></p><p>　　大約10年前在商業(yè)評(píng)論中,杰拉德?卡利諾和羅伯特?德菲納出版了近代的第一篇文章,利用了向量自回歸模型來(lái)估計(jì)貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)。他們假設(shè)貨幣政策制定者能夠在同一季度對(duì)一個(gè)沖

50、擊或一個(gè)地區(qū)意想不到的人均收入增長(zhǎng)作出反應(yīng)。然而,在貨幣政策中個(gè)人收入反應(yīng)的變化僅僅是在以后的季度中,因?yàn)樨泿耪邔?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響要經(jīng)過(guò)一段時(shí)間的滯后。作者還認(rèn)為,在以后一段時(shí)間,任何一個(gè)地區(qū)人均收入的變化也將會(huì)波及到其他地區(qū)。因此,會(huì)有一個(gè)不斷地跨區(qū)域效果。 </p><p>　　在這些假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上,克林和迪菲納估計(jì)了這8個(gè)地區(qū)在聯(lián)邦基金率意外增加的情況下,每個(gè)區(qū)域環(huán)境中真實(shí)個(gè)人收入增長(zhǎng)的累積反應(yīng)。每個(gè)地區(qū)聯(lián)邦基金

51、利率意外的變化引起的最大的反應(yīng)發(fā)生在兩年到兩年半之后。八分之三的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局區(qū)域,在數(shù)個(gè)季度后累積效應(yīng)顯著,不同于全國(guó)平均水平,并且通過(guò)20個(gè)季度,遺跡顯著不同。圖一顯示了這三個(gè)地區(qū)的累積反應(yīng)。在美國(guó)五大湖地區(qū),貨幣政策變化對(duì)個(gè)人收入的影響要明顯高于全國(guó)平均水平。在西南地區(qū)和洛基山脈地區(qū),影響明顯要低于全國(guó)平均水平。這個(gè)模式在一定程度上重現(xiàn)了大多數(shù)對(duì)貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)研究的其他研究。 </p><p>　　在國(guó)家

52、地區(qū)分類(lèi)的最近研究中,我發(fā)現(xiàn)了卡利諾和德菲納調(diào)查結(jié)果中額外的支持。在20世紀(jì)50年代,8個(gè)地區(qū)中經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局以當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)特征為基礎(chǔ),來(lái)進(jìn)行相鄰地區(qū)的分類(lèi)。但是沒(méi)有試圖保證美國(guó)在同一地區(qū)有相似的商業(yè)周期,缺少一個(gè)對(duì)分析區(qū)域商業(yè)周期的重要考慮。我是以如何通過(guò)商業(yè)周期密切地與他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)融合在一起的基礎(chǔ)上,來(lái)進(jìn)行相鄰國(guó)家區(qū)域的分類(lèi)。(參閱美國(guó)各地區(qū)可供選擇術(shù)語(yǔ))事實(shí)證明,過(guò)去四分之一世紀(jì),在一些國(guó)家的商業(yè)周期中更緊密地與相鄰經(jīng)濟(jì)分析區(qū)域結(jié)盟

53、,而不是與自己的區(qū)域。盡管這些不同區(qū)域地州的重新組合是基于商業(yè)周期中一項(xiàng)單純統(tǒng)計(jì)測(cè)量的相似之處,一些商業(yè)周期的重組是顯而易見(jiàn)的。例如,大多數(shù)觀察家不會(huì)質(zhì)疑說(shuō),在非常接近美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局西南地區(qū)??德克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州??的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局東南地區(qū),路易斯安那州是盛產(chǎn)石油經(jīng)濟(jì)的地區(qū),其在東南地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體要超于其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。 </p><p>　　用地區(qū)中這樣一種定義,我復(fù)制了卡利諾和德菲納的原始研究。以相同的

54、基本模式作為早期的研究,但是結(jié)果更加顯著。貨幣政策對(duì)全國(guó)平均水平的效果在大多數(shù)地區(qū)比原始研究更加顯著。在大多數(shù)地區(qū)的脈沖響應(yīng)比美國(guó)分析局地區(qū)估計(jì)的更加精確。美國(guó)五大湖地區(qū)周?chē)膰?guó)家形成了最為顯著地影響區(qū)域,就如同早期的研究。但是西方也受到比美國(guó)平均水平更加顯著的影響。能源帶是在反響中受影響最少的地區(qū)。在克林和迪菲納的研究中,這個(gè)地區(qū)包含美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析區(qū)域西南部和洛基山脈地區(qū)九個(gè)國(guó)家中的六個(gè)。在我復(fù)制的克林和迪菲納的研究中,中東地區(qū)也受到低

55、于全國(guó)平均水平的影響。 </p><p><b>　　五、總結(jié) </b></p><p>　　盡管存在分歧,但對(duì)貨幣政策意外變化的區(qū)域效應(yīng)的研究,已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些一致的模式。在大多數(shù)研究中,貨幣政策的影響大于平均影響,且最大作用是在美國(guó)五大湖地區(qū)附近的幾個(gè)州。最弱的影響是在能源生產(chǎn)地區(qū),特別是在西南地區(qū)。這個(gè)單獨(dú)的學(xué)科在那些地區(qū)對(duì)企業(yè)和政府是有價(jià)值的。 </p&g