麥肯錫中國移動(dòng)總體戰(zhàn)略e文版-ppt74頁

1、CONFIDENTIAL,China’s Mobile Telecom ServicesIndustry Overview,GCO Practice Development,May 2002,This report is solely for the use of Firm personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distributi

2、on without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company.,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,1,,,ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCES,MGMs and CSS involved in the relevant studies include the followi

3、ng:,Tony Perkins (BEI)Stefan Albrecht (BEI)Chipper Boulas (HKO)Peter Kenevan (TOK)Perchow Joseph Chang (SHA)Andrew Wu (HKO)Hai Wu (BEI)Jane Xing (HK)Yi Feng (BEI)Sheng F Li (SHA)Yoshinobu Takanuki (TOK)Graeme

4、Hunter (JOH)Julia Yang (BEI)Eric Xu (BEI)Jason Liu (BEI)Shirley Chen (BEI),The series of PDs include the following:,# China Macroeconomic Environment# China’s Mobile Telecom Service Industry Overview# China’s Inter

5、net Industry Overview# China Telecom Equipment and Services Overview# China’s Mobile Handset Sector Overview# China Telecom Industry Regulatory Overview# Key Success Factors and Case Studies of MNCs Entry to China,,,

6、02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,2,KEY MESSAGES,1. China’s mobile telecom service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US$38 billion in 2005. This mar

7、ket is supported by the world’s largest subscriber base at 145 million, already comprising 15% of the world’s total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 20052. T

8、he competitive landscape for mobile services has evolved from a single regulator and operator to today’s duopoly of China Unicom and China Mobile, both of whom are unassociated with the Ministry of Information Industries

9、. A second breakup of China Telecom is expected to form two large telecom operators, China Telecom and China Netcom Group, who are likely to receive mobile licenses. A fifth telecom operator, China Railcom, also has the

10、potential of receiving a third generation license and building a mobile business. For now, China Mobile dominates the market with 82% value share and 72% subscriber share and owns much of the high value user base. Howeve

11、r churn is already high and is expected to increase with continuing pricing pressures and increased competition.3. Wireless data services are expected to grow quickly in China to a market of potentially over US$4 billi

12、on by 2005, used by 43% of all mobile users. Interest from consumer surveys have been high and operators and other players are actively building services in the market. While early WAP services have failed to catch on, S

13、MS has grown exponentially with up to 20 billion SMS messages in 2001. The early adopters will be mobile professionals and modern youth, who will require services and devices tailored to their needs. 4. Regulatory chan

14、ges loom, particularly with the accession of China to the WTO. While foreigners will be unlikely to set up MVNOs, WTO will allow greater participation of foreigners in basic and value added services, although geographic

15、limitations will exist through 2004 and Chinese players will be required to own at least 50% of telecom service ventures (51% for basic services). Regulatory risks remain, with no means to appeal regulator decisions, un

16、clear interpretation of regulation including WTO commitments, and the government’s track record of intransparent and unpredictable decision making. (See separate regulatory PD for details)AppendixPlayers profiles3G

17、technology standards choices,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,3,KEY MESSAGES,1. China’s mobile telecom service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US

18、$38 billion in 2005. This market is supported by the world’s largest subscriber base at 145 million, already comprising 15% of the world’s total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million

19、 in a high case by 2005,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,4,,,1997-2001 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH 2005,Reve

20、nues US$ Billions,CAGR vs. other industries (1997-2001)Percent,Mobile,Fixed line,Paging,CAGR30%,CAGR16%,Source: Deutsche Bank; McKinsey analysis,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,5,*Revenues do

21、 not equal the product of ARPU as subscriber figures are provided for year end, not average subscribers during a year. Detailed information on the timing of new subscriptions and churn required for the calculation of ave

22、rage subscribers during a given year is not available ** All CAGRs are calculated on the announced dataSource:Deutsche Bank; JP Morgan; MII,EXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE E

23、VOLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITION,,,,,,Mobile revenues* $ Billions,Number of subscribers – low case Millions,CAGR 30%,CAGR 16%,CAGR 83%,ARPUUS$/month,CAGR -24%,CAGR

24、 -7%,Penetration initially lowGovernment backing for increasing subscriber numbersRelatively low fixed line penetrationLow-end prepaid subscriber increase,Drivers,Decline due to increased prepaid and lower spending b

25、y late entrants Tariff reduction as competition increasesSlightly off-set by increase in data traffic in later years,,CAGR 19%,208,235,263,291,17,16,15,15,,,Announced,Effective,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Indu

26、stry 020403.ppt,6,,* 05 forecast use low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction ** Major European countries include: UK, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, SwedenSource:JP Mo

27、rgan; WEFA-WMM; MII; McKinsey analysis,,,,Japan,CHINA IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2001,US,Major European** countries,CAGR = 30%,CAGR = 14%,CAGR = 7%,Number of mobil

28、e subscribersMillions,CAGR = 13%,,China – low case*,China – high case*,,CAGR = 22%,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,7,CHINA’S MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR

29、MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001,* Afirca, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Canada**Forecast of 02-05 use the high case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reductionSource:JP Morgan; Gartner 2001;

30、 Deutsche Bank; Merrill Lynch; Piper Jaffray,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001E,207,300,482,727,965,1,178,1,393,1,633,100% =,Global mobile subscribersMillion subscribers; percent,Western Europe,US,South and Latin,Japan and Asia

31、Pacific,China**,Rest of world*,CAGR1997-2005percent,,29,18,45,28,47,45,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,1,850,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,8,CHINA’S MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY,*

32、02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reductionSource:IDC report; JP Morgan report; McKinsey analysis,Net subscriber* additionsMillions,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,–,108

33、,47,133,-9,8,-47,1,1,Annual growth Percent,1,2,3,7,9,12,13,15,16,PenetrationPercent,47.1,43.9,46.3,45.7,5.5,11.5,16.9,39.4,35.9,,,Low case,High case,Low,–,108,47,103,-9,22,5,-1,3,High,Low,High,1,2,3,7,9,12,16,19,23,02

34、PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,,CHINA’S SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 218 MILLION IMPLIES A 47% PENETRATION OF A

35、N ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF 460 MILLION BY 2005,* Low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reductionSource:JP Morgan; DRI; Asiandemographics.com; Literature search; Analyst reports; Team analysis,,,Income per

36、 capita (US$ p.a.),,,2001,Addressable marketNumber of mobile subscribersImplied penetration of the addressable market,,2005E,,345 mn145 mn42%,463 mn 218 mn*47%,China income distribution and addressable marketPerc

37、ent,1,815,1,772,China’s addressable population for mobile services is projected to increase by 8% p.a. for the next five years to 460 million in 2005The key assumptions in determining the income threshold are: Chinese

38、consumers willing to spend 5-10%% of their income on communication services – higher than the average of 3.5-4% for more developed markets as a greater portion of income is available for non-essential goods as a result o

39、f China’s relatively low living costHalf of this assumed spent on mobile services (5.5%)Unicom’s prepaid ARPU will decrease from USD 8.3 for 2001 to USD 8.1 for 2005; therefore the threshold income will drop from USD 1

40、,815 (8.3*12/5.5%) for 2001 to USD 1,772 for 2005 (8.1*12/5.5%),2005Addressable market: 35%Addressable population: 460 mn persons,2001 Addressable market: 27%Addressable population: 345 mn persons,,Percent of populat

41、ion,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,10,MOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7% IN 2000, LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTH,Source:JP Morgan; IDC report; Gartner; Literature search, EIU,100

42、%,,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,Mobile subscriber penetration in 2000Percent,Italy,Sweden,Netherlands,UK,Spain,Germany,France,US,China**,All subscribers,Data servicesubscribers,1,218,1,230,1,

43、242,1,254,1,265,1,276,1,287,1,298,1,309,1,319,As percentage of total population – low case*Millions (total population),China Urban***,* 02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction

44、 ** Penetration over total population *** Penetration over urban population.,0.6,1.0,1.9,2.9,6.6,8.9,1.1,2.0,3.9,7.1,0.4,12.0,13.4,15.0,16.4,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,11,CHINA’S RI

45、CHER PROVINCES GENERALLY HAVE MORE SUSCRIBERS AND ARE GREATER PENETRATED…,PopulationMillions,PenetrationPercent, 2000,Subscriber CAGRPercent, 1998-2000,Number of subscribersMillions,Province,Guangdong,Liaoning,Zhejia

46、ng,Jiangsu,Shandong,Fujian,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Hebei,Sichuan,Beijing,Henan,Anhui,Hubei,Hunan,Source:China Statistical yearbook, JP Morgan Report, McKinsey analysis,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.p

47、pt,12,…WHILE THE POOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR PROVINCES HAVE LESS SUBSCRIBERS AND ARE LESS PENETRATED,*Growth rate from 1999 - 2000Source:China Statistical yearbook, JP Morgan Report, McKinsey analysis,PopulationMillio

48、ns,PenetrationPercent, 2000,Subscriber CAGRPercent, 1998-2000,Number of subscribersMillions,Province,Jilin,Guangxi,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Chongqing,Shanxi,Tianjin,Inner Mongolia,Jiangxi,Gansu,Xinjiang,Hainan,Ningxia,Qinghai,T

49、ibet,Guizhou,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,13,KEY MESSAGES,2.The competitive landscape for mobile services has evolved from a single regulator and operator to today’s duopoly of China Unicom and

50、 China Mobile, both of whom are unassociated with the Ministry of Information Industries. A second breakup of China Telecom is expected to form two large telecom operators, China Telecom and China Netcom Group, who are l

51、ikely to receive mobile licenses. A fifth telecom operator, China Railcom, also has the potential of receiving a third generation license and building a mobile business. For now, China Mobile dominates the market with 82

52、% value share and 72% subscriber share and owns much of the high value user base. However churn is already high and is expected to increase with continuing pricing pressures and increased competition.,www.21ask.com 中國管

53、理資訊網(wǎng),www.21ask.com 中國管理資訊網(wǎng),02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,14,CHINA’S MOBILE OPERATOR LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED SIGNIFICANTLY, CULMINATING IN SECOND BREAKUP OF CHINA TELECOM,No mobile licenses curre

54、ntly,,Source:Literature search; EIU Pyramid; Industry reports,China Telecom,China Unicom,Became the second mobile network operator in mid 1994However, China Telecom as the sole provider of both basic and wireless telep

55、hony services made it difficult for Unicom to grow,China Unicom,China Railcom,China Unicom,Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications,Created in 1994 when former MPT separated into regulatory and operating functionsChina

56、 Telecom ownership transferred to Ministry of Finance, with regulatory functions placed in the new Ministry of Information Industries (MII),China Telecom,China Mobile (CMCC),China Telecom,China Mobile (CMCC),Under the go

57、vernment’s anti-monopoly plan, in the 1st half of 1999, China Telecom was split into 4 operating companies: CT fixed, China Mobile, CT Paging, CT SatelliteThe change became official on April 20, 2000,Prior to 1994,

58、 the MPT acted as the regulator and sole operator of telecommunicationsIn 1993, announcement was made to separate operating and regulatory functions along with the establishment of a 2nd operator,Great Wall,Established

59、in 1995 to harness PLA’s radio spectrumThe company undertakes “the CDMA project” at the direction of the government,Great Wall,Due to government commitment to separate PLA from commercial activities, Great Wall dissolve

60、d with decision to transfer CDMA assets to China Unicom made in October 2000 (transfer yet to be completed),2nd largest fixed line networkEstablished December 2000Offers limited GSM service over it’s railway network,,2

61、002 and beyond 2nd breakupand future landscape,China Netcom,Established in Sept.1999 with internet backboneLikely license winner,Jitong,Jitong,Setup in 1994 to develop data communication service,Began to offer VoIP ser

62、vicesLeading player in voice over IP,China Netcom Group,China Railcom,China Telecom broken up into North and South with CT North merging with China Netcom and Jitong to become China Netcom Group,China Telecom South cont

63、inues operation as China TelecomOperating CDMA local loop services in several cities,China Mobile unaffected by second breakup, surviving proposal to merge it with Jitong, given concerns about consequences of forced mer

64、gers for publicly listed companies,China Unicom unaffected by second breakup, surviving proposal to merge it with RailcomWhile Great Wall CDMA asset transfer has yet to be completed, Unicom will become first major opera

65、tor in the world with both CDMA and GSM services, with launch of its own CDMA network in 2002,Operator bidding for 3G license, with openness towards adopting China’s 3G standard, TD-SCDMA,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Serv

66、ice Industry 020403.ppt,15,Source:Literature search; industry interviews,Before,After CT break-up,MOST RECENT BREAK-UP OF CHINA TELECOM TO LEAD TO A LANDSCAPE OF 5 OPERATORS COMPETING ACROSS BOTH MOBILE AND FIXED,Licens

67、es,Licenses,Announcement on November 26 to merge Jitong with China Netcom and China Telecom Northern unitCompetition will increase as merged telecom giants obtain licenses for comprehensive telecom operations, includin

68、gFixed-line phoneMobile phoneInternet-related servicesOriginal plan to merge China Mobile with Jitong and China Unicom with China Railcom, met with strong dissent from the capital markets who saw this as an affront