中國正在重置其經(jīng)濟底層邏輯（英文）-摩根士丹利

1、M MChina Macro & Strategy China's Regulatory Reset Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It co

2、uld rebalance the share of economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more profound market impact. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanle

3、y Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a

4、single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates

5、 are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a rese

6、arch analyst account. August 1, 2021 09:00 PM GMTMMorgan Stanley Research 3MChina's Regulatory Reset New objective triggering major regulatory reset: We are at a signifi-cant moment in the history of China’s economy

7、 and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-suff

8、iciency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset. Economic implications: Under the ne

9、w governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulat

10、ory head-winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech loca

11、lization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning

12、 platform companies, progress on audit access dis-pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes. Investment implications: We expect a longer and more profoun

13、d impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim-ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the mark

14、et than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan-tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins a

15、nd revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks. Our current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val-uation discount to MSCI EM ex

16、China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials an

17、d IT. Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands cat