摩根士丹利-石油與天然氣行業(yè)-全球上游資本支出消費周期提前-20180918-36頁

1、MMOilServicesDrilling&EquipmentGlobalUpstreamCapex:SpendingUpcycleAheadMganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcould

2、affecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendoft

3、hisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbyare

4、searchanalystaccount.Theglobalupstreamenergyindustryisundergoingasubstantialinvestmentreboundasconfidenceinasustainablecyclicalrecoverybuilds.Wethinkthestageissetfamultiyearspendingupcycletoreinvigatetheglobaloilgasprodu

5、ctionbase.September18201808:16PMGMTMMOilServicesDrilling&EquipmentGlobalUpstreamCapex:SpendingUpcycleAheadTheglobalupstreamenergyindustryisundergoingasubstantialinvestmentreboundasconfidenceinasustainablecyclicalrecovery

6、builds.Wethinkthestageissetfamultiyearspendingupcycletoreinvigatetheglobaloilgasproductionbase.BuildingonourEuropeanOilsteamsnotefromearlierthismonth(Oil&Gas:PreparefaNewCapexCycle)wehavebroadenedourcapexanalysistotheglo

7、balupstreamindustry.Ourconclusion:Wethinkaglobalspendingupcycleisunderway.Todateglobalinvestmenthasrisenamodest~5%vs.the2016troughbutweseethisrising~15%to2020~30%to2022.Imptantly2020lookstobethefirstyeartheindustrywillex

8、periencematerialsynchronizedcapexgrowthsincebefethedownturn.WhatsnewhereIncollabationwithMganStanleysGlobalEnergyequitycommodityanalystsusingdatafromRystadEnergywehaveconductedatopdownbottomupanalysisofwhatislikelytobesp

9、entacrossthewldoverthenextseveralyears.MganStanleysanalystcoverageextendsacrossnearlyallofthemajoilfieldmarketsfromtheUnitedStatestoCanadaBrazilWestAfricatheNthSeaRussiaChinaAustraliaamongothers.Keyoutofconsensusthemeswe

10、rewatchingoverthenextyear:lThereturnoftheEUmajsdrivinganoffsherevival:Weseeaboveconsensuscapexfromthismeoffshefocusedgroupaheadwhichcoulddrive2019offshegreenfieldprojectsanctioningtothehighestlevelsince2013.MganStanleydo

11、esseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.AsaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchas

12、onlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassocia

13、tedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.lAboveconsensusglobalLNGsanctioning:Constructivemarketsignalsar

14、elikelytodriveFIDsinNthAmericaQatarWestAfricain2019.ThemostsurprisingfinvestswethinkisthepotentialfAsiaPacificFIDstoreemergewithpotential2020FIDsbeingtelegraphedoverthenextyear.lLarger2019disruptioninUScapexthanexpectedb

15、utamerobust2020reboundthanstocksimply:“Capitaldiscipline“byUSE&Psdoesntmean“flatcapex“—wethinkthemarketisunderestimatingthepotentialmagnitudeof2020growthasproductioncashflowsrise.TopGlobalPicksfRisingCapex:2019shouldbeay

16、earofmaterialbackloggrowthatengineering&constructionequipmentcompanies—welikeTechnipFMC(FTI.N)BakerHughesaGECo.(BHGE.N)tooutperfm.Meanwhilehigheroffshefielddevelopmentimpliesaneedfmeproductionunits—positivefSembcpMarine(