電力設(shè)備及新能源行業(yè)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報(bào)告（2）硅片~路線之爭(zhēng)塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺仍將持續(xù)

1、電力設(shè)備及新能源深度報(bào)告光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報(bào)告（2）：硅片—路線之爭(zhēng)塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺——仍將持續(xù)目錄行業(yè)概括：技術(shù)路線分界點(diǎn)，單晶勝券已在握................................................5制造環(huán)節(jié)起點(diǎn)，技術(shù)路線分野....................................................5拉棒鑄錠成本與轉(zhuǎn)換效率拉鋸決定技術(shù)路線................

2、.......................5單晶奪取性價(jià)比優(yōu)勢(shì)，未來份額持續(xù)看漲..........................................6行業(yè)分析：供給過剩下的寡頭競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)，高毛利時(shí)代成為歷史.......................7競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局：過剩背景下的寡頭市場(chǎng)，規(guī)模壁壘初步形成..............................7第三方為主、一體化為輔的供應(yīng)格局8細(xì)分市場(chǎng)淺水難養(yǎng)蛟龍，單

3、多晶龍頭面臨激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)9供過于求將持續(xù)，成本同質(zhì)化導(dǎo)致毛利率處于低位10上游：?jiǎn)味嗑Ч枇瞎┬枨闆r迥異，多晶硅價(jià)差影響下游競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局.....................11下游：獨(dú)立大型電池廠崛起，下游議價(jià)能力有所提升..............................14新進(jìn)入者和替代品威脅不大，垂直廠商有擴(kuò)張動(dòng)力................................14結(jié)論：毛利率繼續(xù)探底下行，未來是龍頭的薄利多銷

4、時(shí)代..........................15成本解析：多晶坐困愁城，單晶步步進(jìn)逼.....................................................16長(zhǎng)晶環(huán)節(jié)成本優(yōu)勢(shì)是多晶護(hù)城河................................................16長(zhǎng)晶：?jiǎn)尉诰蛞?guī)模紅利，多晶降本空間狹小.................................

5、...17切片：金剛線革命窗口期已過，單晶切割成本略占優(yōu)..............................19效率：新技術(shù)鞏固單晶優(yōu)勢(shì)，多晶竭力縮小差距..................................21其他：?jiǎn)味嗑Ч枇喜少?gòu)價(jià)差成為再平衡砝碼......................................22小結(jié)：多晶成本優(yōu)勢(shì)喪失殆盡，市場(chǎng)份額將淪為少數(shù).....................

6、.........23定價(jià)機(jī)制：多晶硅片筑底，單晶硅片彈性大.................................................24EPC投資成本相等決定價(jià)差下限................................................25全生命周期發(fā)電量增益決定價(jià)差上限............................................27多晶是價(jià)格之錨，單晶掌握

7、定價(jià)權(quán)..............................................28其他路線：新技術(shù)潛在威脅不小，但也面臨諸多瓶頸...................................29CCZ直拉單晶：成本攤薄優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯，生產(chǎn)問題仍待解決............................29鑄錠單晶：目前成本優(yōu)勢(shì)不明顯，未來優(yōu)化空間大................................

8、31結(jié)論：?jiǎn)味嗑Х蓊~反轉(zhuǎn)，全行業(yè)低毛利局面將持續(xù).......................................32投資建議：?jiǎn)尉倬忠讯?，利?rùn)率是唯一不確定因素...................................32風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示...........................................................................................

9、...........33電力設(shè)備及新能源深度報(bào)告光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)研究系列報(bào)告（2）：硅片—路線之爭(zhēng)塵埃落定，巨頭廝殺——仍將持續(xù)圖表35：多晶鑄錠成本規(guī)模效應(yīng)相對(duì)較弱..................................................................................18圖表36：多晶鑄錠成本拆分明細(xì).........................................

10、........................................................18圖表37：?jiǎn)尉Ю舫杀静鸱置骷?xì).................................................................................................18圖表38：當(dāng)前單多晶硅錠每爐成本測(cè)算..............................

11、........................................................18圖表39：金剛線切片占比變化趨勢(shì).............................................................................................19圖表40：不同切片方式成本對(duì)比....................................

12、.............................................................19圖表41：金剛線切片與砂漿切片成本差異比較...........................................................................20圖表42：2016年隆基股份推廣金剛線切割大幅降低非硅成本..............................

13、......................20圖表43：?jiǎn)尉Ч杵衅杀静鸱?................................................................................................20圖表44：多晶硅片切片成本拆分...................................................................

14、..............................20圖表45：?jiǎn)味嗑衅€耗及非硅成本中金剛線成本差異.............................................................21圖表46：?jiǎn)尉щ姵剌^多晶電池始終保持一定的效率優(yōu)勢(shì).............................................................21圖表47：濕法黑硅技術(shù)在

15、四條黑硅路線中性價(jià)比更為突出.........................................................22圖表48：黑硅與PERC技術(shù)結(jié)合可顯著提高電池效率...............................................................22圖表49：鑄錠單晶技術(shù)能夠顯著縮小與單晶產(chǎn)品的效率差...............................

16、..........................22圖表50：?jiǎn)味嗑r(jià)差總體呈擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì)..........................................................................................23圖表51：硅料產(chǎn)出中單晶料比例變動(dòng)對(duì)單多晶料價(jià)差影響分析..................................................23圖表5

17、2：理想單多晶硅片成本底部測(cè)算......................................................................................24圖表53：10MW集中式光伏電站投資明細(xì)（萬元）...................................................................25圖表54：EPC成本相同時(shí)單多晶硅片價(jià)格計(jì)算..

18、........................................................................26圖表55：多晶硅片價(jià)格與組件功率的敏感性分析........................................................................27圖表56：?jiǎn)尉ERC組件功率變化對(duì)硅片價(jià)差影響較大........................

19、....................................27圖表57：度電成本相同時(shí)單多晶硅片價(jià)格計(jì)算...........................................................................27圖表58：價(jià)差下限到效益差區(qū)間中值的單晶硅片利潤(rùn)敏感性分析..............................................28圖表59：CC

20、Z法生長(zhǎng)原理示意圖................................................................................................29圖表60：CCZ相比傳統(tǒng)方案提高了生產(chǎn)效率..............................................................................29圖表61：CCZ和RCZ

21、拉晶工序時(shí)間對(duì)比...................................................................................30圖表62：RCZ和CCZ產(chǎn)能及晶棒尺寸對(duì)比...............................................................................30圖表63：尺寸在3040mm的顆粒硅.......

22、....................................................................................30圖表64：準(zhǔn)單晶長(zhǎng)晶流程示意圖.................................................................................................31圖表65：準(zhǔn)單晶長(zhǎng)晶流程示意圖.....

23、............................................................................................31圖表66：準(zhǔn)單晶相比普通多晶的成本增量..................................................................................32圖表67：準(zhǔn)單晶產(chǎn)品良率分析.........