我國分地區(qū)乘用車市場分析及預(yù)測.pdf

1、申請上海交通大學(xué)工程碩士學(xué)位論文我國分地區(qū)乘用車市場分析及預(yù)測AnalysisFecastChinaRegionalAutoMarketing學(xué)校：上海交通大學(xué)院系：機(jī)械與動力工程學(xué)院工程領(lǐng)域：工業(yè)工程交大導(dǎo)師：胡宗武導(dǎo)師：陳振（上海大眾汽車有限公司）工程碩士：程遠(yuǎn)學(xué)號：1040242064上海交通大學(xué)機(jī)械與動力工程學(xué)院2007年5月AnalysisFecastChinaRegionalAutoMarketingAbstractFeca

2、stingvehiclemarketvolumeisacomplexwkButitisveryimptanttoeveryautomobilefacty.Marketsharetargetoutputstructuredependonmarketvolume.ThisarticledepictsthefecastmodelbyregionaldemactualityinfectionfactGettheresultofeveryregi

3、onalmarketvolumein2006.Thisarticlecarvescountrywideup5kindsbyregionaldifferenceprincipia.ThearticleconfirmsthemodelsaspectdependonthatindividualGDPretainvolumeeverykilopeoplefollowtheruleof“S“curve.“S“curvedescribethenew

4、productionnewtechnical’sincreasingprocessIndividualGDPistheimptantguidelinefconfirmingtheretainvolumeeverykilopeople.AfterconfirmsthefecastmodelIadjustthekeymodulus:TownieratioVehicleprivateratepriceindexEconomyimbalance

5、indexothermodulus.FmmaneuverabilityIpredigestthemodel.ThemostlydataisregisterdataindividualGDPdataTownieratio.ByadjustshtfactFexample:oilpriceTaxiupdateConsumecreditrenovatethemodel.AtlastIgettheresultoffecastsvolumeatev

6、eryregionalbycomparingthetruedatashowthatthemodelistrustynicety.AimatmarketfecastingmeansislessbecausechinaautomarketisindevelopingphaseThearticlediscussthenewwaythatestablishfecastmodel.Keywds:“S“curveDemfecastmodelVehi