韓城電廠市場預(yù)測與發(fā)展持續(xù)性評價(jià)研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)（保定）碩士學(xué)位論文韓城電廠市場預(yù)測與發(fā)展持續(xù)性評價(jià)研究姓名：周浩申請學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)及管理指導(dǎo)教師：牛東曉20080501華北電力大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文摘要韓城電廠的可持續(xù)發(fā)展關(guān)系到韓城經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，關(guān)系到韓城的環(huán)境保護(hù)，陜西省電力行業(yè)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此，研究韓城電廠的可持續(xù)發(fā)展意義重大。論文在充分調(diào)研韓城市電力工業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，廣泛參考國內(nèi)外可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究的成果，根據(jù)綜合評價(jià)的原理和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的內(nèi)涵，給出了燃

2、煤電廠可持續(xù)發(fā)展的定義；建立了燃煤電廠持續(xù)發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系；運(yùn)用AHP(AnalyticHierarchyProcess)對韓城電廠可持續(xù)發(fā)展進(jìn)行評價(jià)：建立了灰色預(yù)測GM(1，1)模型，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對電廠可持續(xù)發(fā)展的趨勢預(yù)測；運(yùn)用協(xié)整理論研究了陜西電力消費(fèi)與生產(chǎn)總值的關(guān)系，驗(yàn)證了電力消費(fèi)與生產(chǎn)總值增長之間存在著長期協(xié)整關(guān)系，實(shí)現(xiàn)了對陜西電力需求的趨勢預(yù)測。關(guān)鍵詞：電廠，可持續(xù)發(fā)展，層次分析法，協(xié)整，灰色模型AbstractHanchengpowe

3、rplantsustainabledevelopmentconcernstheeconomyandsociety’scoordinateddevelopment，theenvironmentprotection，andthesustainabledevelopmentofpowerindustryinShaanxiSesearchonthesustainabledevelopmentofHanchengpowerplanthasagre

4、atsignificanceInthispaper，basedontheresearchesofthecurrentsituationofpowerindustryinHancheng，referringtotheresultsofinsideandoutsideresearchesconcerned，andaccordingtothecomprehensiveassessmenttheoryandtheconnotation，thet

5、hermalpowerplantsustainabledevelopmentisdefined，andtheindexsystemissetup：ThemethodofAHPisusedtoevaluatethesustainabledeVelopmentofHanchengpowerplant：Subsequently，theGM(1，1)modelissetuptorealizetheforecastingofthepowerpla

6、ntsustainabledeyelopment：Finally，basedonco—integrationtheorytherelationbetweenelectricpowerconsumptionandeconomicgrowthinShaanxiisresearched，andthe10ng—termco—integrationbetweentherealGDP(GrossDomesticProduct)andelectric

7、consumptionisverified，whichrealizestheforecastingofpowerdemandofShaanxiKEYWORDS：powerplant’sustainabledeVelopmentaⅡalytichierarchprocessco—integration，greymodelZhouHao(TechniqueEconomyandManagement)DirectedbyprofNiuDongx