世界需求和競爭力對出口和經(jīng)濟增長的影響外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文3450字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯原文</p><p>　　外文題目：Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth </p&g

2、t;<p>　　出 處：Growth and Change (Vol.25,Winter 1994,pp.3-24) </p><p>　　作 者： JESSIE POON </p><p><b>　　原 文：</b></p><p&

3、gt;　　Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　The role of exports in economic growth has been much debated since the 1950s. Two v

4、iewpoints characterize the development literature on the relationship between exports and economic growth. The first considers that economic growth is a consequence of favorable internal and supply-related factors. Expor

5、ts promote growth because they stimulate the efficient use of these factors for economic production and enable a country or region to remain competitme (Bhagwati 1988; Kravis 1973; Riedel 1987). </p><p>　　

6、One outcome of the polarization of the literature is that regions trying to develop are confronted with development models which often assume dualistic forms. For example "inward" versus "outward" tra

7、de orientation, or, "export" versus "import" substitution strategies.' Broadly, these dualisms are circum- scribed in what has come to be known as the "export optimism-export pessi- mism&quo

8、t; debate(Bhagwati 1988). The need to collapse the export optimism-export pessimism dualism for a more integrative</p><p>　　This paper examines the relationship between export growth and economic growth with

9、in an integrative framework. It argues that developing countries (abbreviated to LDCs) are rather differentiated in their economic structures so that the relationship between exports and economic growth is likely to var

10、y. Thus, it is unlikely that the above relationship may be fully explained by one viewpoint. Two variables, world demand and competitiveness, capturing demand-oriented as well supply-oriented expl</p><p>　　

11、The paper is organized as follows: the next section documents the theoritical and empirical underpinnings of export optimism as well as export pessimism , and their resulting polarized positions . The model for investiga

12、ting integration is introduced next, followed by a discussion of the data and results. The paper ends with a summary of the findings and their implications. </p><p>　　The Exports-growth Debate</p>&l

13、t;p>　　The question as to whether economic growth may be rapidly promoted through exports is characterized by two schools of thought: </p><p>　　Export optimism. Export optimists consider trade to be an eng

14、ine of growth and place much confidence in the role of prices to allocate resources efficiently. Countries or regions that are able to compete in their exports enhance their economic growth because this increases product

15、ivity and specialization, and improves efficiency through better resource allocation. Drawing on the principles of classical comparative advantage as well as vent-for-surplus and staple theories (see for example Myint&

16、lt;/p><p>　　Exports help to overcome a country or region's limited market and provide an outlet for the surplus products that are not consumed domestically. Idle or surplus resources are absorbed into expor

17、tables which have the effect of stimulating economic growth (Myint 1958). Engaging in export producUOn therefore ensures greater capacity utilization through economies of scale {Balassa 1985). It has also been maintain

18、ed that economies that are oriented towards exports produce a higher level of industri</p><p>　　Export optimists support their position by drawing extensively from econometric studies relating economic gro

19、wth to some indices of export performance under implicit assumptions of favorable supply conditions. Several of these studies concluded that economic performance is highly correlated to export growth (Balassa 1978; 1985;

20、 Dodaro 1993; Emery 1967; Feder 1982; Fosu 1990; Kavoussi 1984; Maizels 1968; Michalopoulos and Jay 1973; Rana 1988; Syron and Walsh 1968; Tyler 1981). The meteoric ri</p><p>　　Export pessimism. Export pe

21、ssimists put less faith in the market, arguing that the ability of developing countries to export is constrained by the external market. They maintain that the hnk between exports and growth (abbreviated to exports-growt

22、h) weakened considerably during the oil crisis years of the 1970s due to a contraction in demand especially for LDC exports. Thus, trade enhances growth only when the external demand is favorable. Export pessimists advo

23、cate more inward-oriented strate</p><p>　　One of the earliest researchers to highlight the influence of the external environment on trade performance was Nurkse (1961). Contrasting trade patterns between the

24、 nineteenth and twentieth centuries, he argued that economic growth in the industrialized core had not resulted in a proportionate increase in demand for LDC exports. Echoing the same sentiments two decades later, Lewis

25、(1980) points out that since most of the exports of developing countries are destined for markets in developed coun</p><p>　　The above is characteristic of dependency writings such as those of Cardoso and Fa

26、letto (1979). In this case, structural differences between a developed and developing region are seen to determine their asymmetrical trading relationship. Some empirical support for the position of the export pessimists

27、 is provided by studies on the role of external demand on the export performances of developing countries (e.g. Kavoussi 1985; Singer and Gray 1988). These reports indicate that export earnings decl</p><p>　

28、　The role of the external demand assumes even greater significance when the rise of global protectionism is considered. The continued absorptive capacity of the international market for the exports of developing countrie

29、s in the face of global reswcturing is questioned by Cline (1982) for example. Cline concluded that if several developing countries were to follow in the footsteps of the exportoriented Asian NICs, it would provoke a wid

30、espread protectionist response from the developed countries. </p><p>　　An integrative perspective. The debate between export optimists and pessimists have adopted rather polarized views so that policy recom

31、mendations have also been conflicting. The dualistic framework of the export promolion/outward-orientation versus import substitution/inward orientation models reflects this. The empincal literature has also not provide

32、d a clear resolution of the debate. For instance in investigating the exports-growth relationship, Balassa (1985) reports a higher parametric va</p><p>　　An important source of the conflict between the expor

33、t optimists and the export pessimists is the degree of openness which is deemed to be desirable during the process of economic development. Import substitution regimes tend to be characterized by high levels of protectio

34、n for its producers (e.g. quantitafive restrictions or tariffs on imports) in order to avoid the vagaries of external demand. Export optimists support a higher degree of openness because it enables a country or region t

35、o find </p><p>　　However, Streeten (1982) argues that the process of national production is often a mix of the two strategies. Bruton (1989) has pointed out that mdustrialization through import substitution

36、is credited with building up the capital goods sector as well as technological maturity. Import substitution is thought to pave the way for successful export performance because a body of knowledge is acquired over time

37、by targeting production towards the domestic market before exposing the products to an int</p><p>　　Frank, Kim, and Westphal's (1975) study of the highly export-oriented South Korea estimated that import

38、 substitution and export expansion both contributed positively to the growth of manufactured output between the 1950s and 1960s. The creation of comparative advantage in the petrochemical industry by the Korean governmen

39、t is a good example of the import substitution of intermediate products. This provided the basis for newer phases of Korean industrial growth and exports in the late 1970s. Gwyn</p><p>　　The integration of i

40、mport substitution and export promotion in regional or national production appears therefore to be crucial in the development process. Balassa's (1981) theory of the stages-of-development is especially relevant here

41、as economic progress is conceived in several stages: an "easy" stage of import substitution engaging in the replacement of the imports of nondurable consumer goods. During this period, external economies are ge

42、nerated in the form of labor training and entrepreneur</p><p>　　Integrating import substitution and induced growth is influenced by both country's competitiveness. Ho's (1984) export promotion impli

43、es that trade-induced growth is influenced by both the the levels of external demand and a study of LDCs' exports for instance showed that the gains from trade for the NICs is associated with their abilities to maint

44、ain their export competitiveness globally. Where external demand has been poor, the more successful performers have been able to keep or even increas</p><p>　　This paper therefore argues for a convergence of

45、 the perspectives underlying the export optimism-export pessimism schism. From the paper's viewpoint, the contribution of exports to economic growth is affected by both external demand as well as a country or region&

46、#39;s competitiveness. </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　世界需求和競爭力對出口和經(jīng)濟增長的影響</p><p><b>　　導(dǎo)言</b></p><p>　　出口對經(jīng)濟增長的作用在20世紀(jì)50年代以來一直被爭論。出口與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系的

47、發(fā)展文獻有兩個代表性觀點。第一種觀點認為，經(jīng)濟增長是內(nèi)部和供應(yīng)相關(guān)的有利因素的結(jié)果。出口促進增長，因為它們刺激經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)因素的有效使用，使一個國家或地區(qū)保持競爭力（巴格瓦蒂1988年；卡拉維斯1973年；里德爾1987年）。在第二觀點里，出口帶動經(jīng)濟增長的成功是說基于一個經(jīng)濟繁榮的核心區(qū)域的有利貿(mào)易環(huán)境。這種需求為導(dǎo)向的觀點表明，預(yù)計核心地域的 出口比需求不會擴大地太快（例如劉易斯1980年；納科斯1961年；普里比1962年）。兩者觀點

48、的不同點在于出口和經(jīng)濟增長之間關(guān)系的確定和聯(lián)系機制給出的權(quán)重。</p><p>　　文獻兩極分化的一個結(jié)果是，地區(qū)試圖發(fā)展往往采用二元形式發(fā)展模型。例如“走進來”與“走出去”貿(mào)易方向，或“出口”與“進口”替代戰(zhàn)略。從廣義上講，這些二元論被已經(jīng)稱為“出口樂觀與出口悲觀”的爭論限制（巴格瓦蒂1988年）。因為綜合觀點瓦解“出口樂觀與出口悲觀”二元論的需要已經(jīng)被斯特（1982年）提高。越來越多的文獻也表明，兩個觀點綜合

49、的優(yōu)點值得仔細看看（如Gereffi,1989）。</p><p>　　本文在一個綜合框架內(nèi)探討出口增長與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系。它認為，發(fā)展中國家（簡稱LDCs）在經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)方面有相當(dāng)區(qū)別的，因此出口增長和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系可能會有所不同。因此，不太可能由一個觀點完整地解釋上述關(guān)系。兩個變量，世界需求和競爭力，鎖定需求為導(dǎo)向以及供給為導(dǎo)向的解釋的出口增長與收入增長的關(guān)系的機制首先建立。這兩個變量納入了出口增長模式還有

50、前述研究關(guān)系的影響。分析的主要單位是發(fā)展中國家，雖然這項研究也關(guān)系到區(qū)域發(fā)展。特別是發(fā)展中國家可能被設(shè)想為區(qū)域單位，除了許多在前面控制經(jīng)濟增長的國家級做的決定。</p><p>　　本文結(jié)構(gòu)如下：下一部分是出口悲觀以及出口樂觀的理論和實證基礎(chǔ)，和它們所帶來的兩級分化的立場。該模型一體化的綜合是，通過對數(shù)據(jù)和結(jié)果的討論介紹下面部分。本文最后以調(diào)查和他們的意義總結(jié)結(jié)尾。</p><p><

51、;b>　　出口增長爭論</b></p><p>　　經(jīng)濟增長是否會通過出口快速增長這個問題被兩所學(xué)校的想法所描述：</p><p><b>　?。ㄒ唬?、出口樂觀</b></p><p>　　樂觀主義者認為出口貿(mào)易成為經(jīng)濟增長的發(fā)動機，價格的作用很大，國家或地區(qū)有能力在出口競爭，提高他們的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，因為這可以增加生產(chǎn)力和促進專業(yè)

52、化，并通過有效地分配資源更好地提高資源配置的效率。古典的繪圖以比較優(yōu)勢的原則，及通風(fēng)的過剩和主食的理論（例如見敏1958年，北美1955年，1961年），出口樂觀者指出潛在收益的出現(xiàn)是由于貿(mào)易的結(jié)果。出口樂觀解釋出口和經(jīng)濟增長與供給方面各因素之間的聯(lián)系如自然資源、企業(yè)家素質(zhì)和熟練地勞動力。貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的作用在于擴大勞動力和資金供給，而技術(shù)進步提高生產(chǎn)率（里德爾，1987年）。在促進出口等已普及的前提下，實施外向型貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略，使經(jīng)濟快速增

53、長和發(fā)展。</p><p>　　出口有助于克服一個國家或地區(qū)的有限市場，并提供一個剩余未供國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品出口。閑置或多余的資源吸收到出口商品有刺激經(jīng)濟增長（敏，1958年）的影響。從事出口生產(chǎn)，因此確保通過規(guī)模經(jīng)濟（巴拉薩，1985年）更大的產(chǎn)能利用率。也有人認為，經(jīng)濟體對出口產(chǎn)生的工業(yè)水平（聯(lián)合拉美經(jīng)委會、工發(fā)組織工業(yè)發(fā)展導(dǎo)向部門，1986年）生成更高，因為國際消費模式曝光優(yōu)質(zhì)的產(chǎn)品。其他令人信服的理由，包括由發(fā)展中

54、國家需要賺取外匯，以資助工業(yè)化的進口，以及豐富的勞動力的部署，以便它使就業(yè)和工資增長（克魯格曼，1988年）。</p><p>　　在出口樂觀者的支持下，借鑒與提供的有利條件，出口業(yè)績指標(biāo)計量隱含的體現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟增長是經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究的一些廣泛的立場。這些研究的結(jié)論是，經(jīng)濟增長表現(xiàn)與出口增長密切相關(guān)的（巴拉薩，1985年等）。在迅速崛起的亞洲新興工業(yè)化國家也已經(jīng)與他們的“大量出口”發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略（巴拉薩，1988年；休斯，198

55、9年；克魯格曼，1985年；里德爾，1988年）。所有這些計劃，經(jīng)過世界銀行（1987年，1993年）批準(zhǔn)，作為發(fā)展中國家的主要發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略來促進出口。</p><p><b>　?。ǘ?、出口悲觀</b></p><p>　　出口悲觀主義者對投放市場信心不足，認為發(fā)展中國家的出口能力受到外部市場的制約。他們認為，出口和經(jīng)濟增長之間的聯(lián)系（簡稱出口增長），在最不發(fā)達市場，

56、尤其是出口需求萎縮的石油危機相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重，在20世紀(jì)70年代削弱了。因而，加強貿(mào)易增長只有當(dāng)外部需求大時是有利的。出口悲觀主義者主張更多內(nèi)向性的戰(zhàn)略，即進口替代作為主要的發(fā)展模式。進口替代被認為是有利的，因為它減少了一個國家的脆弱性及國際（普雷維什，1968年）經(jīng)濟危機。</p><p>　　最早研究者之一（納克斯，1961年）研究貿(mào)易外部環(huán)境影響。對比與19世紀(jì)和20世紀(jì)的貿(mào)易模式，他認為在工業(yè)化為核心的經(jīng)濟增長并

57、沒有使最不發(fā)達國家出口產(chǎn)品的需求相應(yīng)增加。同樣的觀點對應(yīng)二十年后，劉易斯（1980年）指出，由于 發(fā)展中國家的出口產(chǎn)品大多是以發(fā)達國家市場為目的地，這產(chǎn)生了不利影響，時工業(yè)化國家自70年代中期的經(jīng)濟放緩。因此國家的出口表現(xiàn)依賴于工業(yè)化的核心地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟條件。</p><p>　　以上的特點是依賴著作，如卡多佐和法萊特（1979年）的項目。在這種情況下，發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家地區(qū)之間被視為不對稱的結(jié)構(gòu)性差異的貿(mào)易關(guān)系。

58、一些出口的悲觀論者的立場的經(jīng)驗指出 ，在對發(fā)展中國家的出口實績的外部需求的作用研究中（如凱沃西，1985年等）。這些報告表明，當(dāng)外部需求的水平下降時，出口收入大幅減少。</p><p>　　當(dāng)外部需求得更大時，對全球貿(mào)易保護主義上升考慮，繼續(xù)在國際市場擴大吸收能力，在全球結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整面臨著危機，對發(fā)展中國家的出口產(chǎn)品更是提出質(zhì)疑（克萊恩，1982年）。克萊恩認為，如果一些發(fā)展中國家要追隨的腳步出口為導(dǎo)向的亞洲新型工業(yè)

59、化國家，這會引起從發(fā)達國家普遍的保護主義反應(yīng)。這使發(fā)展中國家發(fā)展的能力對貿(mào)易進一步限制。</p><p>　?。ㄈ⒁粋€綜合性的觀點</p><p>　　出口樂觀主義者和悲觀主義者之間的辯論通過了相當(dāng)大的分歧意見，是政策的建議也反應(yīng)不一。在出口推廣的二元論框架、外向型方向與進口替代、內(nèi)向型模式反映了這一點。實證文獻也沒有提供一個明確的決議進行辯論。對于調(diào)查的出口與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系，巴拉

60、薩（1985年）報告，在1973年的石油危機期間，存在一個較高的產(chǎn)品出口參數(shù)值。沃（1988年）的研究與巴拉薩的結(jié)論相抵觸，出口進行后，石油危機對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生積極的影響較少。</p><p>　　一個出口樂觀主義者和出口悲觀者之間沖突的重要原因是開放程度，認為在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進程是可取的。進口替代制度往往受保護其生產(chǎn)的高層次這一特點（例如數(shù)量限制或進口關(guān)稅），以避免外部需求波動的影響。出口樂觀主義者支持開放程度較高，因

61、為它使一個國家或地區(qū)找到其相對優(yōu)勢，從而避免高成本，低效率的活動，使其更具有競爭力。</p><p>　　然而，斯特（1982）認為國家生產(chǎn)過程往往是兩個戰(zhàn)略組合。布魯頓（1989）指出，通過進口替代工業(yè)化與建設(shè)，資本貨物部門達到技術(shù)成熟。進口替代被認為是成功鋪平道路的出口表現(xiàn)方式，因為一個知識體系，是隨著時間的推移，在收購對象面向國內(nèi)市場是產(chǎn)品之前，通常先向國際客戶生產(chǎn)。這也符合幼稚產(chǎn)業(yè)在經(jīng)濟學(xué)文獻中有一個行業(yè)

62、首先向內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟，直到足夠的成熟，再顯現(xiàn)在外部需求和競爭的保護理論。</p><p>　　弗蘭克等人（1975）的高度外向型的韓國研究估計，進口替代和擴大出口在50年代和60年代之間對生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)量增長都作了積極貢獻。比較優(yōu)勢的石化行業(yè)創(chuàng)造韓國政府是一個中間產(chǎn)品進口替代很好的例子。這是70年代末韓國工業(yè)增長和出口的新階段的基礎(chǔ)。格瓦特（1990）指出，在韓國繁榮工業(yè)增長已經(jīng)平均國內(nèi)需求和出口市場的分布。臺灣（聯(lián)合

63、拉美經(jīng)委會、工發(fā)組織工業(yè)發(fā)展部，1986年）也提出了類似的看法。</p><p>　　因此，進口替代和出口在區(qū)域或國家促進生產(chǎn)一體化看來是在發(fā)展進程中的關(guān)鍵。巴拉薩（1981）理論及圣人的發(fā)展，尤其是與此有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟進步是幾個圣人的設(shè)想：一個“方便”進口的非耐久消費品的進口替代從事替代圣人。在此期間，外部經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了勞動培訓(xùn)和創(chuàng)業(yè)的形式。促進腸胃未來作為生產(chǎn)者的途徑，以克服其國內(nèi)市場規(guī)模有限，合乎邏輯的步驟。隨著工業(yè)

64、生產(chǎn)過程的深入，更多的資本置換密集型中間產(chǎn)品的追求是促進出口的另一階段。因此，促進出口之前往往是進口替代階段。</p><p>　　集成進口替代和出口促進意味著貿(mào)易引起的增長是受到了外部需求和一個國家的競爭力水平的影響。例如，最不發(fā)達的國家出口的研究表明，從新型工業(yè)化國家貿(mào)易的收益與他們的能力相關(guān)，以維持其全球出口競爭力。如果外部需求一直不佳，較成功的人能夠保持甚至提高了多元化的出口市場份額或圍繞的保護主義措施（