房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)國(guó)家統(tǒng) 計(jì)局4月份行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤銷(xiāo)售穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)，開(kāi)發(fā)投資維持高位

1、行業(yè)研究報(bào)告房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)行業(yè)研究報(bào)告房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文最后的中國(guó)銀河證券股份公司免責(zé)聲明。1目錄目錄一、商品房銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)一、商品房銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)......................................................................................................................................................

2、.....2（一）2019年14月商品房銷(xiāo)售穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)，城市分化趨勢(shì)加深....................................................................................2二、投資、新開(kāi)工與土地市場(chǎng)二、投資、新開(kāi)工與土地市場(chǎng)...........................................................................

3、................................................................4（一）土地成交持續(xù)回落，一二線(xiàn)城市回溫苗頭初現(xiàn)...............................................................................................4（二）新開(kāi)工節(jié)奏加快，施工面積繼續(xù)走高.................

4、.............................................................................................4（三）開(kāi)發(fā)投資維持高位，建安費(fèi)用拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)顯著...................................................................................................5三、房地

5、產(chǎn)資金面三、房地產(chǎn)資金面...............................................................................................................................................................6（一）信貸環(huán)境寬松，房企資金面持續(xù)改善.............................

6、.................................................................................6四、投資建議四、投資建議..............................................................................................................................

7、.........................................7五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示......................................................................................................................................................................

8、.720762353361392019051616:56行業(yè)研究報(bào)告行業(yè)研究報(bào)告房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文最后的中國(guó)銀河證券股份公司免責(zé)聲明。3圖3：重點(diǎn)：重點(diǎn)38城新房月銷(xiāo)量情況城新房月銷(xiāo)量情況40%20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002013120134201372013102014120144201472014102015120154

9、20157201510201612016420167201610201712017420177201710201812018420187201810201912019438城套月均套同比(右)資料來(lái)源：wind，中國(guó)銀河證券研究院圖4：重點(diǎn)一二三線(xiàn)新房銷(xiāo)量累計(jì)同比重點(diǎn)一二三線(xiàn)新房銷(xiāo)量累計(jì)同比60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%20141201442014720141020151201542015

10、72015102016120164201672016102017120174201772017102018120184201872018102019120194一線(xiàn)4累計(jì)同比二線(xiàn)12累計(jì)同比三線(xiàn)20累計(jì)同比資料來(lái)源：wind，中國(guó)銀河證券研究院圖5：重點(diǎn)城市庫(kù)存及狹義去化周期：重點(diǎn)城市庫(kù)存及狹義去化周期0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.000200000400000600000800000100

11、000012000002013120135201392014120145201492015120155201592016120165201692017120175201792018120185201892019115城庫(kù)存套15城狹義去化周期月(右)資料來(lái)源：wind，中國(guó)銀河證券研究院圖6：一二三線(xiàn)城市狹義去化周期：一二三線(xiàn)城市狹義去化周期月0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0020131201352013

12、920141201452014920151201552015920161201652016920171201752017920181201852018920191一線(xiàn)4二線(xiàn)6三線(xiàn)5資料來(lái)源：wind，中國(guó)銀河證券研究院圖7：重點(diǎn)城市狹義去化周期：重點(diǎn)城市狹義去化周期月3.14.45.15.87.07.28.28.69.211.913.113.514.215.619.419.619.721.525.827.933.036.60510152