瑞銀-中國(guó)-宏觀策略-中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)展望數(shù)說(shuō)中國(guó)（2018年5月）-2018.5.25-26頁(yè)_第1頁(yè)
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1、economicsThisrepthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLimited.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE23.??GlobalResearch25May2018ChinaEconomicPerspectivesChinabytheNumbers(May2018)OurguidetoChinesemonthlydataWhat

2、thenumbersarewhattheymeantheoutlookgoingfward:What’snew?Aprilrealactivitydataheldupbutweaknesselsewhereimpliesmoderationisunderway.Industrialproductionsurprisedontheupsidewitha7%yyjumpexptssawabroadbasedreboundrealestate

3、investmentstayedstrong.ResumptionofactivitiesafteralatestartinMarch(postNPC)resumptionofproductioninChinasindustrialNthafterthecleanaircampaignsendfirmermanufacturingactivitiesallhelped.ButFAIgrowthslidtoaYTDlowpropertys

4、alesfellbackintocontractionretailsalescooledinfrastructureFAIstayedweak.?Somesignsofpreemptivepolicyfinetuninghavebeensentgivenglobaltradegrowthuncertainties(e.g.AprilsRRRcutPolitburolanguageshift)butnolargescaleeasingha

5、sbeenannounced.?ChinatheUSissuedajointstatementonMay19on“aconsensustotakeeffectivemeasurestosubstantiallyreduceUSgoodstradedeficitwithChina“butnospecificamountwasmentioned.ChinapledgedtorampupitsUSgoodservicepurchasesinc

6、luding“meaningfulincrease“inagricultureenergyexptswithdetailstobewkedoutlater.USofficialsareduetovisitChinanexttofinalizea“framewk“.Whatsnext?BigscaletradewarseeminglyavertedfnowbutfundamentaldifferencesremainincludingCh

7、inasindustrialpolicy“MadeinChina2025“.FnowweseetheRMBstillpivotingonUSDmovements.InthelongruntradedealsmayquickenthedeclineofChinascurrentaccountsurplusaddingdepreciationpressureontheRMB.Recentevents(e.g.ZTE)haveledtocon

8、cernsonhowtheglobaltechsupplychainmaybedisrupted.Suchuncertaintymayleadtolongtermshiftsintrade&investmentpatterns.?MedownwardpressurecominginH2mainlyfromweakeningpropertyinfrastructureactivitiesremainsintactwithmevisible

9、growthpressuresemerginginH2.AmanufacturingFAIrevivalresilientconsumptionfirmexptsshouldoffersomeoffsetbutwseningtradefrictionsweakerthanexpectedglobalgrowthmeandownsidetraderiskhasrisen.?WhatcouldseesupptHouseholdconsump

10、tionmanufacturingemergingindustriesinvestmentwouldrankhighaspriitysupptareas.WhatspecificeasingpolicymeasuresareusedwillbedatadependentbutifgrowthslowsnotablyrecentlytightenedPPP&infrastructurerelatedfinancingmayease.Pro

11、pertyeasingisunlikelybutanymoaryeasingsignalmaybolstermarketsentiment.Westillseeuptoanother200bpRRRcutsthisyearsloweroverallcreditgrowthelevatedbutrangeboundmarketrates.EconomicsChinaDonnaKwokEconomistdonna.kwok@85237123

12、160NingZhangEconomistning.zhang@85229718135JenniferZhongAssociatejennifera.zhong@861058328324LanChenCFAEconomistS1460516090001lan.chen@862138668802TaoWangEconomistwang.tao@85229717525ChinaEconomicPerspectives25May2018??2

13、Figure1:Aprils7%yyIPreboundsawbroadbasedsuppt…Figure2:…asdidAprilsstrongerthanexpectedexptsSource:CEICUBSestimatestis3mmabasisSource:CEICUBSestimatestis3mmabasisFigure3:Propertyinvestmentstayedstrongbutsalescontinuedtosl

14、ideinAprilFigure4:Sharplyslower“other“investmenttookYTDFAIdownto7%yySource:CEICUBSestimatesSource:CEICUBSestimatesFigure5:HouseholdconsumptionwouldrankhighasapriityareaifmeeasingisneededFigure6:Risingconcernsonhowtradefr

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