瑞銀-2019-2020全球經濟展望（宏觀）

1、 Global Research Global Economic Perspectives Global Economic Outlook 2019-2020 The end of “l(fā)ow for longer“ The aggregate global output gap closed in Q2 this year, median unemployment is at the lowest level since 19

2、80, wage pressures in many developed markets are approaching post- GFC highs (and in Japan at two-decade highs), labour shortages in several European countries with high unemployment seem as acute as in Germany (3½

3、% unemployment), and 72% of countries already have headline inflation running above the central bank's target—a share greater than during the 2003-2007 boom years. Economically, the global economy does not look li

4、ke a patient in need of more monetary life support. But the evidence of being “l(fā)ate cycle“ is at best mixed We assessed 120 prior “l(fā)ate cycle“ episodes for 40 countries, and found that on several dimensions the behavi

5、our of the data over the last four quarters in the US, Eurozone and Japan is completely incongruous with any of the recessions that took place since 1980. Employment growth in Japan, house price and productivity growth

6、 in the US, core inflation in Europe, and various aspects of consumption and investment behaviour are not consistent with being near a business cycle peak. The central banks are thus understandably cautious. Despite c

7、ore inflation in DM expected to be back above 2% by end 2019, on par with pre- crisis levels, central banks are expected to lift their policy rates to only half of 2008/2009 levels by end 2020 and still be below neutral

8、. And our now-casting models suggest the global economy is skidding We launch our global now-cast in this report and show how the deterioration in global 'hard' and 'soft' data is the most severe since

9、 the Eurozone crisis. We view the softness as transitory and we project consumption and investment to re-accelerate in 2020. But the knock to confidence this year is notable: 'survey' implied growth globally ha

10、s fallen from 4.9% to 3.5% YTD. Where do we deviate from 2019 consensus? We are significantly below consensus growth forecasts in 2019 for a large number of countries, including recession-hit Turkey (-160bp below con

11、sensus) and Argentina (200bp), several of the Asian economies (-80bp in Thailand and Malaysia), and also the Eurozone (- 20bp). We are significantly above consensus on Japan (+70bp next year on growth and a similar mag

12、nitude on inflation) and Brazil (+70bp on growth). We remain more cautious on the US near term than most, because of tariff concerns, but are more constructive post- 2020. The fiscal cliff is more like a gentle hill—we&

13、#39;ve raised potential growth to 2¼% in 2020 and believe the Fed, after a pause, resumes hiking in 2021. What can go right? The biggest upside risks to our forecast are (i) trade tensions de-escalating; (ii) tra

14、de diversion effects being stronger than we think (we show for several Asian economies how market share gains could outweigh value chain disruption); and (iii) the US growth acceleration being more structural. What c

15、an go wrong? The biggest downside risks are (i) central banks falling behind the curve if inflation surprises to the upside (on just a 50bp deviation from our inflation baseline we would see policy rates 70bp higher i

16、n DM); (ii) the US fiscal cliff being steeper than we project; (iii) US-China tariffs getting extended to all goods (we modelled the implications of USD/CNY potentially moving to 8.0); (iv) European peripheral debt str

17、ess intensifying on Italian debt concerns; (v) Brexit (we've estimated the global cost of a 'hard' Brexit at roughly half of the US/China trade tensions); and (iv) oil prices being significantly above/belo

18、w our baseline, which has a large (transitory) effect on policy rates in EM. www.ubs.com/economics 7 November 2018 Economics Global Arend Kapteyn Economist arend.kapteyn@ubs.com +44-20-7567 0531 Seth Carpenter Eco

19、nomist seth.carpenter@ubs.com +1-212-713 4173 Reinhard Cluse Economist reinhard.cluse@ubs.com +44-20-7568 6722 Rafael De La Fuente Economist rafael.delafuente@ubs.com +1-203-719 7127 Gyorgy Kovacs Economist gyorgy.kova

20、cs@ubs.com +44-20-7568 7563 Pierre Lafourcade Economist pierre.lafourcade@ubs.com +1-203-719 8921 James Malcolm Economist james.malcolm@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6214 Edward Teather Economist edward.teather@ubs.com +65-6495 5

21、965 George Tharenou Economist george.tharenou@ubs.com +61-2-9324 3520 Tony Volpon Economist tony.volpon@ubs.com +55-11-2767 6337 Tao Wang Economist wang.tao@ubs.com +852-2971 7525 obal Economic Perspectives Global Econ