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1、<p> 字數(shù):英文2455單詞,13710字符;中文3827漢字</p><p> 出處:Marcin Sitek.The Risk Involved in Implementation of Innovations in the Real Estate Market[R].Institute of Economic Research Working Papers.No.159/2017</
2、p><p><b> 外文文獻: </b></p><p> The Risk Involved in Implementation of Innovations in the Real Estate Market</p><p><b> Abstract </b></p><p> Rese
3、arch background: In this paper a short overview of the types of innovations and their innovative forms of investing in the real estate market, such as reverse mortgage, flipping, building for rent, system condo and crowd
4、funding was presented.</p><p> Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to present risk factors in innovative activities in the real estate market and evaluation of their activity in this market. The
5、 study proposed the hypothesis that a specific level of development in the real estate market corresponds to a certain level of investment risk reflected by the rate of return.</p><p> Methodology/methods:
6、The questionnaire survey in the local real estate market participants (investors, employees in enterprises that provide services for the real estate market, external appraisers, real estate brokers and counsellors) was c
7、onducted for the purposes of evaluation of risk factors in the investment innovative activities.</p><p> Findings: Analysis of the results of questionnaire survey supported the following thesis:</p>
8、<p> -as an effect of a strong inflow of capital and disturbed balance between demand and supply, return rates represent the reaction to the previous market behaviours,</p><p> -decline in the rates o
9、f return points to the increase in the investment risk in the real estate market.</p><p> It was found that the particularly high contribution to the risk level is from market risk, which is little transpar
10、ent in Poland and is characterized by high variability of the conditions of operation.</p><p> Keywords: risk; investment risk; innovations; risk management</p><p> Introduction</p><
11、;p> In the contemporary economy, innovative activity represents a prerequisite for improved competitiveness of enterprises and effective meeting the needs of recipients of products and services. Therefore innovativen
12、ess can be considered as a key success driver that determines competitive advantage of enterprises in the market (?witalski, 2005; Pud?o, 2012; Hult et al., 2004; Calanton et al., 2002; Jin et al., 2004; Ropor et al., 20
13、06).</p><p> The characteristic feature of the innovative processes is a relatively high risk level (Jonek-Kowalska, 2011), which is often viewed as one of its basic barriers. A high level of the innovative
14、 risk is generated by substantial expenditure on research and development and high degree of failure involved in implementation.</p><p> The aim of this study is to present risk factors in investment innova
15、tive operations in the real estate market and to evaluate their impact on this market.</p><p> The main motivation for the analysis of these problems is a widespread aversion to risk among the participants
16、of the real estate market, which, similarly to the necessity to incur substantial expenditures and uncertainty of the final result connected with implementation of the innovations in the real estate market, represents on
17、e of the major barriers to adopt the risk.</p><p> The study proposed the thesis that a specific level of development of the real estate market corresponds to a certain level of the investment risk.</p&g
18、t;<p> As a result of the processes of intensive globalization of the economy, accelerated economic growth, the main barrier and key problem is evaluation of the risk of innovative activity in the whole economy.&
19、lt;/p><p> Research Methodology</p><p> The data used to achieve the study aim and support the adopted thesis were derived from the results of the survey conducted among the entities operating in
20、 the local real estate market.</p><p> The questionnaire was dedicated to developers and entities operating in the real estate market in 16 enterprises that employ up to 50 employees, with the headquarters
21、located in Cz?stochowa and operating in the local market. The respondents expressed their opinions about innovative activities in their own enterprises and evaluated risks involved in innovativeness. The study sample siz
22、e was 50 people.</p><p> The study also used the results of the survey ordered by PARP (PARP, 2013), part of the data were derived from the survey conducted within the project "Support...." (GUS,
23、 2007-2013). The survey was conducted in a group of microenterprises, according to the methodology of innovative studies described in the Oslo Manual (OECD/Eurostat, 2008).</p><p> Furthermore, the conclusi
24、ons concerning key actions to ensure further effective development of the Polish economy and their new directions were developed based on the results of the survey conducted by McKinsey (McKensey et al.,, 2015) dedicated
25、 to leaders of the biggest enterprises in Poland. The methodology adopted in the study allows for presentation of innovative solutions and evaluation of the risk of innovation implementation in the real estate market.<
26、;/p><p> Short overview of innovations. Innovations in the real estate market</p><p> One of the characteristic features of modern business is innovativeness, considered as a key determinant of p
27、rogress of societies.</p><p> Innovations and services can occur in each economy sectors and the sector of public services such as health protection or education. However, the indications contained in this
28、manual concern only the innovations in the sector of enterprises. This concerns the production sector, raw material industry and services sector.</p><p> Oslo manual involves four types of innovations: prod
29、uct innovations, process innovations, organizational innovations and marketing innovations. Therefore, innovation means implementation of a new or substantially improved product, a new or substantially improved process,
30、a new marketing and organizational method. It seems that this division concerns innovations in the sector of enterprises, concerning only the production sector, raw material industry and the sector of services.</p>
31、<p> According to the National Cohesion Strategy (Narodowa..., 2007-2013, 2014-2020), and according to Brzeziński (Brzeziński, 2001) and Prystrom (Prystom, 2012) and depending on the activity conducted by the bus
32、iness entities in the real estate market, the innovation groups can be characterized as:</p><p> -technological innovations,</p><p> -process and organizational innovations,</p><p&g
33、t; -marketing innovations,</p><p> -financial innovations.</p><p> As a new innovative form if investment in the real estate market, which consists in maximization of profits while minimizing
34、 risk leading to the achievement of measurable benefits from the investors is flipping (Zakr?t, 2010, pp. 49-60).</p><p> In general, flipping means a bargain purchase of assets and its immediate re-sale at
35、 a profit. The rate of return depends on the choice of concrete real estate and evaluation of the effectiveness of a specific investment. In this case, the value added, termed the economic profit, is based on the princip
36、le of obtaining the rate of return on the whole capital invested, with its value exceeding its cost.</p><p> Reverse mortgage, dedicated to retired people, is another innovative form of investing in the rea
37、l estate market. It consists in allowing individual customers to utilize their assets with substantial value and replacing them into the streams of payments that allow for improving their income situation (Sty? & ?ys
38、zczak, 2013, pp. 112-122).</p><p> According to Buszko (Buszko, 2011, p. 445), reverse mortgage is an instrument which has a potential to exist in the Polish market and represents the desired solution. The
39、survey on the opinions of the recipients of innovations in financial services with the example of the reverse mortgage indicated the innovativeness of this instrument. However, the services does not show opportunities fo
40、r being popular. Therefore, this innovation in financial services should be created by entrepreneurs since th</p><p> The innovations include institution of rent, which, in the form of the private and publi
41、c market (Social Construction Society) is more and more involved in helping Poles improve their housing situation.</p><p> In Poland, a new phenomenon in the market of investment innovations is development
42、of the market of condo hotels and aparthotels. Condohotels operate in the same way as conventional hotels, with the only difference being that the owners of the rooms are individuals. They rent the rooms to hotel operato
43、rs who are responsible for the whole organization and marketing. The room owners obtain in advance the rent or profits. The professional investors have more and more ideas concerning the investment</p><p>
44、The synthetic overview of innovations presented in this study, especially in the real estate sector, supports the notion that the innovations are considered to be the driver of the progress of societies (Ropor et al.,, 2
45、006).</p><p> Risk of innovation implementation in the real estate market according to investors</p><p> Innovations are expected to produce demanded changes. However, implementation of new so
46、lutions involves high costs which are often difficult to cope with for enterprises. Furthermore, the risk of failure is also difficult in the case of implementation of innovations. Therefore, not all entrepreneurs decide
47、 to implement innovative solutions. However, investments in the real estate market are considered as one of the safest forms of using capitals.</p><p> The risk of innovative activities connected with imple
48、mentation of innovations (Damodaran, 2009) is defined as a likelihood of threats and effects. Therefore, making investment decisions is based on the relationship between the risk and rate of return. The rate of return on
49、 the investments in real estate depends on the differences between sales prices and purchasing prices (rate of return).</p><p> Rate of return on the real estate market are changed through high capital-inte
50、nsity, low market transparency and liquidity of the real estate and high costs of transaction. High rates of return in Poland in the real estate market following 2000 were claimed to have been caused by accepting a high
51、investment risk. However, Kucharska-Stasiak (Kucharska-Stasiak, 2006) demonstrated that the decline in the rate of return in the Polish market to the level typical of developed markets suggests the incr</p><p&
52、gt; Therefore, risk identification consists in awareness of the events that can have a negative effect on the investment project i.e. determination of the potential sources of risk. This inspired preparation of the clas
53、sification of factors and sources of risk in the innovation process (Keizer et al., 2002).</p><p> Detailed analysis of the classification of risk sources points clearly to the fact that the most important
54、component of the analysis of innovation risk is not to start innovative activity but awareness that giving up the activity in the longer perspective can lead to lost competitiveness in the enterprise.</p><p>
55、; The examinations conducted in 2016 in the enterprises that invest in the local market in Poland, compared with the findings presented by PARP, also obtained in the Project "Wsparcie ....." and the survey by
56、McKinsey with respect to the data contained in the European Commision 2016 (European...2016), allowed for presentation of the risk factors in the investment innovation activity in the real estate market, evaluation of th
57、eir activity in this market and supported the hypothesis that a specific </p><p> In the questionnaire survey conducted in 2016, the investors were asked about innovative activities in their enterprises and
58、 they evaluated the risk or implementation of innovations in the real estate market from the standpoint of the local market.</p><p> The analysis of the results of the questionnaire survey showed that small
59、 and micro enterprises prefer a closed model of innovation. The investors claimed that the open model occurs in the incidental and one-time forms.</p><p> With regard to the evaluation of the risk of innova
60、tion activity, the respondents claimed that the risk is not measured by them.</p><p> The risk involved in innovation was evaluated by the respondents as medium. However, they realized that abandoning of in
61、novation activities has to lead to deteriorated competitiveness in both local and global markets (Sitek, 2016).</p><p> The results of the questionnaire survey ordered by PARP in 2013 showed, that a key act
62、ivity determined strategy adopted for the years 2014-2020 is to develop the instrument of support to promote unlimited investment activities in enterprises.</p><p> The analysis of the results of the survey
63、s in the Project "Wsparcie ......." concerned microenterprises and, more specifically, indices of innovative activities. Its time periods were 2007-2013 and 2014-2020. The following observations were made for t
64、he microenterprises:</p><p> -the advantage of construction innovations (technical, technological and process innovations) over innovations connected with the services to the real estate market,</p>
65、<p> -advantage of the construction sector in the share of revenues on sales of real estate over services for the real estate market,</p><p> -advantage of the share of microenterprises cooperating wi
66、th other entities in terms of innovation activities compared to the construction sector,</p><p> -public support for innovative activities is more effective in the construction sector compared to the activi
67、ties connected with services for the real estate market.</p><p> The survey by McKinsey demonstrated that one of the key tasks is investments in business innovativeness.</p><p> The most recen
68、t report of the European Innovation Scoreboard 2016 also demonstrated an increase in innovativeness index. Statistical analysis demonstrated that one of the strengths of Poland is human resources and investments of the e
69、nterprises for whom innovativeness represents a key activity to ensure a fast development of Polish economy.</p><p> The most important risk factors in innovative activities presented by Butryn (Butryn, 200
70、6) include the risk concerning product and brand positioning, market life cycle, its acceptance by consumers, risk in terms of competition, control and prices i.e. acceptance of new product. However, the most important r
71、isk in innovative activities is market risk since technical, technological and organizational successes of innovative activity are connected with the innovative success of the product in the </p><p> Conclu
72、sions</p><p> Analysis of the innovative activity and risk involved with this activity was based on the results of the survey concerning the local real estate market in micro- and small enterprises,</p&g
73、t;<p> The study demonstrated that:</p><p> -with respect to the innovative activity in the sector of real estate, the innovative services dominate substantially over the investment activities in th
74、e construction sector, thus representing the value added,</p><p> -in the services in the real estate market, innovations concern in particular marketing, with marketing surveys concerning meeting the custo
75、mer needs as one of the aspects of combating competition,</p><p> -analysis of the barriers of perception of innovations by enterprises in Poland demonstrated low demand for innovative products and services
76、 as the major barrier,</p><p> -noticeable differences in perception and using the programs of public and private support were not found among investors in the real estate market. In both cases, the key pro
77、blem of using them indicated by stakeholders was administrative problems in finding the resources. The value added in this case is the necessity to remove this barrier.</p><p> -the previously proposed thes
78、is that the increase in the investment risk is reflected by the reduction in the rates of return was supported. This suggests the value added in the results of this study,</p><p> In conclusion, the risk of
79、 the market, which is little transparent and characterized by large variability of conditions, has a substantial effect on the level of risk of innovative activities in the real estate market.</p><p><b&g
80、t; 中文譯文:</b></p><p> 房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新實施過程中的風險分析</p><p><b> 摘要</b></p><p> 研究背景:本文簡要介紹了房地產(chǎn)市場投資的創(chuàng)新類型及其創(chuàng)新形式,例如反向抵押貸款、翻新轉手、房屋租賃、分戶出售公寓以及眾籌。</p><p> 文章目的:提出了房地
81、產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新活動中的風險因素,并對其市場活動進行了評價。該研究提出了一個假設,即房地產(chǎn)市場的具體發(fā)展水平對應著一定程度的投資風險所反映的收益率。</p><p> 方法/措施:對當?shù)胤康禺a(chǎn)市場參與者(投資者、為房地產(chǎn)市場提供服務的企業(yè)員工、外部估價師、房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀人和顧問)進行問卷調查,以評估投資創(chuàng)新活動中的風險因素。</p><p> 結果:對問卷調查結果的分析支持以下論點:</p
82、><p> -由于資本大量流入和供求失衡的影響,收益率代表了對以前市場行為的反應,</p><p> -收益率下降,反映出房地產(chǎn)市場投資風險增加。</p><p> 研究發(fā)現(xiàn),對風險水平貢獻最大的來自于市場風險,這種風險在波蘭是不透明的,其特點是操作條件的高度可變性。</p><p> 關鍵詞:風險;投資風險;創(chuàng)新;風險管理</p&
83、gt;<p><b> 簡介</b></p><p> 在當代經(jīng)濟中,創(chuàng)新活動是提高企業(yè)競爭力、有效滿足產(chǎn)品和服務接受者需求的先決條件。因此,創(chuàng)新可以被認為是決定市場競爭優(yōu)勢的關鍵成功驅動因素(?witalski,2005;Pud?o,2012;Hult等人,2004;Calanton等人,2002;Jin等人,2004;Ropor等人,2006)。</p>
84、<p> 創(chuàng)新過程的特征是風險水平相對較高(Jonek-Kowalska,2011),這通常被看作是它的基本障礙之一。創(chuàng)新風險大是由于研究和開發(fā)需要大量支出,以及實施過程中失敗率較高。</p><p> 本研究的目的是提出房地產(chǎn)市場投資創(chuàng)新操作中的風險因素,并評估它們對這個市場的影響。</p><p> 對這些問題進行分析的主要動機是房地產(chǎn)市場參與者普遍厭惡風險,其中,類似
85、于需要產(chǎn)生大量支出,且房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新實施效果的不確定性,是引入風險的主要障礙之一。</p><p> 該研究提出了房地產(chǎn)市場的具體發(fā)展水平對應著一定程度的投資風險這一論點。</p><p> 由于經(jīng)濟全球化進程加快,經(jīng)濟增長加速,所以其主要障礙和關鍵問題是對整個經(jīng)濟中創(chuàng)新活動風險的評估。</p><p><b> 研究方法</b><
86、/p><p> 用于實現(xiàn)研究目的和支持所采用的論點的數(shù)據(jù),來源于在當?shù)胤康禺a(chǎn)市場經(jīng)營的實體中進行的調查結果。</p><p> 該調查問卷專門針對房地產(chǎn)市場中的開發(fā)商和實體的16家企業(yè),其雇員人數(shù)多達50人,總部設在琴斯托霍瓦,在當?shù)厥袌鼋?jīng)營。受訪者對自己企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新活動發(fā)表了意見,并評估了創(chuàng)新所涉及的風險。研究樣本量為50人。</p><p> 該研究還使用了PA
87、RP(PARP,2013)的調查結果,部分數(shù)據(jù)來源于在項目“支持……”(GUS,2007-2013)中的調查。根據(jù)《奧斯陸手冊》(經(jīng)合組織/歐盟統(tǒng)計局,2008)所述的創(chuàng)新研究方法,在一組微型企業(yè)中進行了這項調查。</p><p> 此外,根據(jù)麥肯錫(McKensey等人,2015)對波蘭最大企業(yè)的領導人進行的調查結果,提出了關于確保進一步有效發(fā)展波蘭經(jīng)濟的關鍵行動及其新方向的結論。該研究中采用的方法可以提出創(chuàng)
88、新的解決方案,并評估房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新實施的風險。</p><p> 創(chuàng)新概述。房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新</p><p> 現(xiàn)代企業(yè)的特征之一是創(chuàng)新,創(chuàng)新被認為是社會進步的關鍵決定因素。</p><p> 在每個經(jīng)濟部門和公共服務部門,如保健或教育方面,都可以出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新和服務。然而,本手冊中的指示僅涉及企業(yè)部門的創(chuàng)新。這涉及到生產(chǎn)部門、原材料工業(yè)和服務部門。</p>
89、;<p> 《奧斯陸手冊》涉及四種創(chuàng)新:產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新、工藝創(chuàng)新、組織創(chuàng)新和營銷創(chuàng)新。因此,創(chuàng)新意味著實施一種新的或實質上改進的產(chǎn)品,一種新的或實質上改進的工藝,一種新的營銷和組織方法。這一分類看起來涉及到企業(yè)部門的創(chuàng)新,僅涉及生產(chǎn)部門、原材料工業(yè)和服務部門。</p><p> 根據(jù)國家凝聚力戰(zhàn)略(Narodowa…,2007-2013,2014-2020),根據(jù)Brzeziński(Brzezińs
90、ki,2001)和Prystrom(Prystom,2012)的觀點,并根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)市場上的經(jīng)營主體進行的活動,創(chuàng)新群體的特征是:</p><p><b> -技術創(chuàng)新,</b></p><p><b> -工藝和組織創(chuàng)新,</b></p><p><b> -營銷創(chuàng)新,</b></p>
91、;<p><b> -金融創(chuàng)新。</b></p><p> 作為一種新的創(chuàng)新形式,如果投資于房地產(chǎn)市場,則包括利潤最大化和風險最小化,從而使得投資者可以獲得可衡量的收益(Zakr?t,2010,第49-60頁)。</p><p> 一般而言,翻新轉手意味著購買資產(chǎn)和立即轉售以獲利。收益率取決于具體房地產(chǎn)的選擇和具體投資效果的評價。在這種情況下,增值
92、,即經(jīng)濟利潤,是以獲得全部資本投資收益率為原則的,其價值超過成本。</p><p> 反向抵押貸款,主要針對退休人員,是投資房地產(chǎn)市場的另一種創(chuàng)新形式。它包括允許個人客戶利用其具有實質價值的資產(chǎn),并將其替換成允許改善其收入狀況的付款流(Sty?和?yszczak,2013,第112-122頁)。</p><p> 根據(jù)Buszko(Buszko,2011,第445頁)的觀點,反向抵押貸
93、款是波蘭市場上具有潛力的一種工具,是所需要的解決方案。以反向抵押貸款為例,對金融服務創(chuàng)新者的意見調查表明,該工具具有創(chuàng)新性。然而,這些服務并沒有顯示出受歡迎的時機。因此,鑒于企業(yè)家是通過刺激需求和變化來創(chuàng)造市場的,所以金融服務創(chuàng)新應該由企業(yè)家來創(chuàng)造。</p><p> 這些創(chuàng)新包括租賃制度,以私人和公共市場(社會建設協(xié)會)的形式,越來越多地參與到幫助波蘭人改善其住房狀況的活動中。</p><
94、p> 在波蘭,投資創(chuàng)新市場的一個新現(xiàn)象是公寓酒店和公寓酒店市場的發(fā)展。公寓酒店的經(jīng)營方式和傳統(tǒng)酒店的經(jīng)營方式相同,唯一的區(qū)別是客房的業(yè)主是個人。他們將房間租給負責整個組織和營銷的酒店經(jīng)營者??头繕I(yè)主提前取得租金或利潤。專業(yè)投資者對投資公司和眾籌的建議越來越多,通常使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng),從眾多人中獲得大量的小額資金,來為一個項目或計劃進行融資。房地產(chǎn)眾籌和提供的解決方案,產(chǎn)生了可供普通投資者使用的自由資本的投資與增殖(Róziec
95、ki,2016)。</p><p> 本研究中提出的創(chuàng)新綜合概述,特別是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的創(chuàng)新概述,支持將創(chuàng)新視為社會進步的驅動因素(Ropor等人,2006)。</p><p> 基于投資者的房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新實施風險分析</p><p> 創(chuàng)新有望產(chǎn)生需求變化。然而,實施新的解決方案涉及到高成本,這往往是企業(yè)難以應付的。此外,在創(chuàng)新的實施中,失敗的風險也是難以應付的
96、。因此,并非所有的企業(yè)家都決定實施創(chuàng)新的解決方案。不過,房地產(chǎn)市場的投資被認為是使用資本最安全的形式之一。</p><p> 與創(chuàng)新實施有關的創(chuàng)新活動的風險(Damodaran,2009)被定義為存在可能性的威脅和影響。因此,投資決策是以風險與收益率之間的關系為基礎的。房地產(chǎn)投資的收益率取決于銷售價格和購買價格的差異。</p><p> 房地產(chǎn)市場的收益率通過資本密集度高、市場透明度和
97、房地產(chǎn)流動性低、交易成本高而發(fā)生變化。2000年以來,波蘭在房地產(chǎn)市場的高收益率被認為是由于接受高投資風險而造成的。然而,Kucharska-Stasiak(Kucharska-Stasiak,2006)聲稱,波蘭市場的收益率下降到發(fā)達市場的典型水平,這表明投資風險在增加,而不是下降。</p><p> 因此,風險識別包括對投資項目可能產(chǎn)生負面影響的事件的認識,即確定潛在的風險來源。這激發(fā)了在創(chuàng)新過程中對因素和
98、風險來源分類的準備(Keizer等人,2002)。</p><p> 對風險來源分類的詳細分析表明,創(chuàng)新風險分析中最重要的組成部分不是啟動創(chuàng)新活動,而是認識到,從長遠角度來看,放棄創(chuàng)新活動會導致企業(yè)失去競爭力。</p><p> 2016年,在波蘭投資當?shù)厥袌龅钠髽I(yè)進行的檢查,與PARP提出的調查結果相比,也從項目“支持……”和麥肯錫對包含在2016年歐洲委員會中的數(shù)據(jù)的調查中得出,允
99、許在房地產(chǎn)市場投資創(chuàng)新活動中引入風險因素,評估其在該市場的活動,并支持以下假設:房地產(chǎn)市場的具體發(fā)展水平對應著這個市場的投資風險的具體水平。</p><p> 在2016年進行的問卷調查中,投資者被問及企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新活動,并從當?shù)厥袌龅慕嵌仍u估了房地產(chǎn)市場創(chuàng)新的風險或實施。</p><p> 對問卷調查結果的分析表明,小微企業(yè)更喜歡封閉式的創(chuàng)新模式。投資者聲稱,開放式的模式是偶然發(fā)生的,且
100、存在一次性。</p><p> 關于對創(chuàng)新活動風險的評估,受訪者聲稱,風險不是由他們來衡量的。</p><p> 受訪者將創(chuàng)新風險評估為中等風險。然而,他們意識到,放棄創(chuàng)新活動必將導致本地和全球市場競爭力的惡化(Sitek,2016)。</p><p> 2013年由PARP進行的問卷調查結果顯示,確定2014-2020年采取戰(zhàn)略的關鍵活動是發(fā)展支持工具,促進
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