外文翻譯--中國的人口老齡化

1、<p><b>　　中國的人口老齡化</b></p><p>　　摘 要：由于下降的生育率和上升的壽命率的協(xié)同效應(yīng)，使人口老齡化成為“人口過渡”過程中不可避免的結(jié)果。在老齡化進(jìn)程中，農(nóng)村和城市人口有不同程度的老齡化趨勢(shì)。人口老齡化也引起社會(huì)群體對(duì)老人生活安排的注意。由于傳統(tǒng)觀念的改變，子女的贍養(yǎng)不再是老人唯一的依靠，更多的是政府和另外一些社會(huì)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)老年人作出的扶助政策。</p

2、><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：人口過渡 老齡化趨勢(shì) 生活安排</p><p><b>　　引 言</b></p><p>　　中國的人口老齡化的直接決定因素基本上也如另外一些國家一樣。由于下降的生育率和上升的壽命率的協(xié)同效應(yīng)，使人口老齡化成為“人口過渡”過程中不可避免的結(jié)果。然而，由于不同的歷史，文化，經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治背景，所以中國的老齡化明顯是特殊的。隨著21

3、世紀(jì)前五十年，老年人口比例從6.8%增長到23.6%，使得老齡化的增長趨勢(shì)本身就無法匹敵。作為世界上人口最多的國家，老齡化的人口增長達(dá)到了驚人的24，2000，000。</p><p>　　本論文的寫作目的是在社會(huì)主義的前提下來檢測中國老齡化中的諸多方面。首先我們探索人口決定因素和老齡化趨勢(shì)，強(qiáng)調(diào)國家政策促進(jìn)了低水平的人口生育率和死亡率。為了解決老年人的贍養(yǎng)問題，我們調(diào)查了傳統(tǒng)的家庭照顧體系以及在1987年改革開

4、放政策啟動(dòng)以來所面對(duì)的挑戰(zhàn)。然后我們回顧了政府為滿足老齡化人口需求所倡導(dǎo)的退休和醫(yī)療計(jì)劃。然后我們總結(jié)了政府在面對(duì)平衡經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和老齡化扶助安排中的兩難窘境。最后我們將回顧一些政策方案和潛在的機(jī)遇來解決二十一世紀(jì)的全球人口問題。</p><p>　　急劇下降的生育和死亡率模式</p><p>　　作為世界上現(xiàn)存最古老的人類社會(huì)，中國的人口歷史到了二十世紀(jì)符合典型的人口過渡模式中的前過渡階段的

5、描述。在十七世紀(jì)前的一千年中，高生育率和高死亡率的人口體制使人口波動(dòng)在37,000,000-60,000,000之間，在清朝時(shí)首度經(jīng)歷了迅速增長，達(dá)到了400,000,000。然而在1851年至1949年由于內(nèi)戰(zhàn)和帝國主義的侵略造成了社會(huì)動(dòng)亂，使得一口再一度下降。1949年中華人民共和國的成立標(biāo)志著人口過渡的開端，這個(gè)過程使得中國與其他國家在急劇下降的生育率和死亡率中區(qū)分開來，兩者都離不開政府的干預(yù)。</p><p&

6、gt;　　城市和鄉(xiāng)村的老齡化趨勢(shì)</p><p>　　低死亡率和低生育率的成功使得人口老齡化加劇。運(yùn)用1982年的人口普查中的城市/農(nóng)村定義，馬森認(rèn)為到2017年15%的城市人口將能達(dá)到65歲，然而在農(nóng)村20年后才會(huì)出現(xiàn)該狀況。然而20世紀(jì)80年代以來的農(nóng)村人口遷到城市的行為可能改變這一調(diào)查報(bào)告。根據(jù)2000年的人口審查表，可作出保守的估計(jì)人口會(huì)達(dá)到79，000，000，把凈遷出人口計(jì)算在內(nèi)，馬森發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)村老齡化將

7、會(huì)越來越多，65歲以上的人口將會(huì)達(dá)到2009年目前城市的人口狀況。</p><p><b>　　生活安排的趨勢(shì)</b></p><p>　　研究老年人的生活安排有必要去理解親屬是否可以提供贍養(yǎng)。因?yàn)橥佑谝粋€(gè)屋檐下更可能去提供贍養(yǎng)，即使實(shí)際復(fù)雜的生活安排和健康，生活安排仍可視為一種幸福指標(biāo)。</p><p>　　據(jù)2000年曾等人收集到的人口普

8、查和調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)宏觀模擬了老年人生活安排的趨勢(shì)根據(jù)平均的生育率、死亡率、農(nóng)村/城市遷移，結(jié)婚和離婚的假設(shè)。即使是保守的估計(jì)，他們的計(jì)劃顯示平均人口數(shù)量將會(huì)從2000年的3.46%銳減到2020年的2.86%和2050年的2.69%。年齡超過65歲的空巢家庭將會(huì)達(dá)到2000年的三倍。</p><p>　　政府和協(xié)會(huì)的相關(guān)扶助</p><p>　　如上訴述的，傳統(tǒng)的家庭結(jié)構(gòu)和家庭贍養(yǎng)制度在中國已經(jīng)

9、歷了一些變化。面對(duì)如此已毀壞的非正式的老年支持體系，政府有必要加強(qiáng)其扶助的角色。我們可以得出三個(gè)不同階段的政策體系，分別是協(xié)會(huì)幫助，醫(yī)療保障和保險(xiǎn)和老年社會(huì)保障。</p><p><b>　　結(jié) 論</b></p><p>　　目前正如三十年前一樣，人口過多仍是主要問題。矛盾的是計(jì)劃生育已經(jīng)成功地控制人口的增長，另一方面卻急劇加速了老齡化進(jìn)程。關(guān)注點(diǎn)從太多孩子去贍養(yǎng)變

10、成太少孩子去贍養(yǎng)迅速老化的人口。由于下降的依靠比率和上升的健康醫(yī)療和社會(huì)保障計(jì)劃，中國正處于滿足老齡化需求的巨大壓力中。這是一個(gè)極具挑戰(zhàn)性的問題，因?yàn)橹袊司杖胨绞峭瑯用鎸?duì)人口老齡化的發(fā)達(dá)國家四分之一而已。因此中國將同時(shí)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和人口老齡化處理的雙重難題。中國將怎樣解決在致富之前先治老齡化，又是誰將會(huì)照顧這些老人呢？</p><p>　　在中國已經(jīng)延續(xù)了幾個(gè)世紀(jì)的孝道深植于文化傳統(tǒng)中。盡管最近幾年有所毀損

11、，但仍難以置信它將在不久后瓦解消亡。有許多證據(jù)表明中國的父母和子女間有著緊密的聯(lián)系和兩代間的凝聚力。而且政府也在努力來保護(hù)傳統(tǒng)價(jià)值和鞏固家庭義務(wù)。在未來的幾十年里，家庭贍養(yǎng)體系仍然是一個(gè)不可或缺的角色來承擔(dān)照顧老人的責(zé)任。政府和家庭的聯(lián)手努力或許是解決長期老齡化問題的最好方案。</p><p>　　Population Aging in China</p><p>　　1 Introduc

12、tion</p><p>　　The proximate determinants of population aging in China are fundamentally the same as those in any other country. It is an inevitable consequence of the process known as the “demographic transi

13、tion” in which declining fertility together with a rise in life expectancy leads to a shift towards an older age structure of the population. Yet, the story of population aging in China is unmistakably unique, shaped by

14、its distinct historical, cultural, economic and political contexts. The pace of its agi</p><p>　　It is the purpose of this chapter to examine the multifaceted process of population aging in China, with parti

15、cular attention to its socialist/communist background. We begin by exploring the demographic determinants and trends of population aging, highlighting the role of state policies in facilitating the fertility and mortalit

16、y declines. To address the issue of elderly caregiving, we examine the traditional family support system and the challenges it faces since the launch of the economic refo</p><p>　　2 An Accelerated Model of M

17、ortality and Fertility Decline</p><p>　　As one of the oldest human societies in existence, China’s population history up to the twentieth century fits the description of the pre-transitional stage of the cla

18、ssic model of demographic transition. Under a high fertility and high mortality regime, the population fluctuated between 37 and 60 million in size for over a thousand years prior to the 17 th century; then for the first

19、 time experienced rapid growth and reached a size of over 400 million during the reign of the Qing Dynasty (1749–</p><p>　　3 The Trend of Population Aging in Urban and Rural China</p><p>　　The v

20、ery success of China’s mortality and fertility decline has accelerated the process of population aging in China. Using the urban/rural definition from the 1982 population census, Wang and Mason (2007) projected that 15

21、per cent of the urban population would be 65 years and older in 2017, while the same figure would not be achieved in rural China until twenty years later. However, massive rural to urban migration that started in the 198

22、0s may very well change the scenario. It was conservati</p><p>　　4 Trend of Living Arrangements</p><p>　　Studies on living arrangements of the elderly population are essential to understand the

23、structure of kin availability for support. Because coresidence with family members often means they are more likely to receive support, living arrangements were often viewed as an indicator for well-being, despite mixed

24、empirical findings on the relationship between living arrangements and health (Lawton et al. 1984; Sarwari et al. 1998; Zunzunegui et al. 2001).</p><p>　　Using census and survey data collected around2000, Ze

25、ng et al. (Forthcoming) macro-simulated thetrend in elderly living arrangements under the mediumassumptions on fertility, mortality, rural-urban migration,marriage and divorce. Despite being a conservativeestimate (given

26、 that it does not take changingpreference into account), their projection showed thatthe average household size would decrease from 3.46persons per household in 2000 to 2.86 in 2020 and 2.69in 2050 and that the proportio

27、n of th</p><p>　　5 Government and Institutional Support for Elderly</p><p>　　As described above, the traditional family structureand family support system has undergone some major shifts in Chin

28、a. Facing the possibility of an undermined informal old age support system, it is imperative for the government to strengthen its role in public support. In the following section we outline three systems at different sta

29、ges of policy development, including institutionalized care, health care and health insurance and old age social security.</p><p>　　6 Conclusion</p><p>　　As recently as three decades ago, China’

30、s primary population problem was overpopulation. Paradoxically, successful implementation of the family planning policy has effectively controlled the population size but drastically speeded up the aging process, thereby

31、 shifting the concern from “too many children to support” to “too few children to support a rapidly aging population” (Kaneda 2006). With a falling dependency ratio and an increasing burden on the health care and social

32、security programs, C</p><p>　　Finally, the deeply rooted cultural tradition of filial piety existed for centuries in China. Despite its erosion in recent years, it is implausible that it will disintegrate an

33、y time in the near future. There is plenty of evidence testifying to the cohesive ties and intergenerational solidarity between parents and their adult children in contemporary China. Further, the government is making pu