全球航空價值鏈爭論

1、AirLinks - Value Chain Debates CRmiTSlllss> Aircraft deliveries - weighing27th April 2020 Global Equity ResearchDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LE

2、GAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research imports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may

3、 have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Research Analysts:Neil GlynnAlejandro Zamac

4、onaaleiandro.zamacona@credit-suisse Olivier Brochetolivier. brochet@cred it-su isse. co mLouis ChuaRobert SpingarnLokesh GargChris Leonardchristopher.leonard@credit-suisse Lok Kan ChanJose Caiado De SousaDanny Chan

5、Onur Muminogluonurmijminoqlij@credit-suisse Paul ButlerAmerican Airlines (Underperform, TP US$26.00)Analysts: Jose Caiado De SousaKey risk: We originally modelled 2020E capex at $3.3bn, falling to $2bn in 2021E, which

6、 compares to an average of $5,2bn annually over 2014-2019 and medium term guidance of$30,bn. AAL and BOC Aviation have reached a sale and leaseback agreement for 22 new Boeing 787-8 aircraft, with the aircraft schedule

7、d for delivery in 2020 and 2021..Relevant details: AAL confirmed $7,3bn in liquidity as at 9 March, and an additional $10bn in unencumbered assets. It has not yet confirmed its latest liquidity position however plans t

8、o accept a total of$5,8bn in payroll assistance, including $4.1 bn in direct grants plus a low-interest loan of$1,7bn.AAL also plans to seek an additional $4,75bn in a separate loan from the US Treasury.Analyst view: A