[雙語(yǔ)翻譯]現(xiàn)金流外文翻譯--風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)金流財(cái)務(wù)規(guī)劃的工具（英文）

1、 Procedia Economics and Finance 23 ( 2015 ) 262 – 266 2212-5671 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/license

2、s/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Selection and/ peer-review under responsibility of Academic World Research and Education Center doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00358-5 ScienceDirectAvailable online at www.sciencedirect.com2nd GLOBAL CONFE

3、RENCE on BUSINESS, ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT and TOURISM, 30-31 October 2014, Prague, Czech Republic Cash Flow at Risk: A Tool for Financial Planning Ceren Oral a*, G. Cenk Akkaya b aFethiye Faculty Of Management, Departmen

4、t of Economics and Finance, Mugla S?tk? Kocman University, 48300, Fethiye-Mugla, Turkey b Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Business Administration, Dokuz Eylül University, 35160, Izmi

5、r, Turkey Abstract The company's cash levels can vary considerably over time depending on, payment and collection cycle. Made full and timely payment of sufficient operating capital to keep and disruption of operati

6、ons, it is important to predict cash levels correctly. Cash Flow at Risk; as well as financial strategies and long-term investment planning based on the scientific basis of creation, it provides an assessment of capita

7、l structure. Through different scenarios that may occur rarely even considers events. Through Cash Flow at Risk calculations on a specific date how much cash levels may fall within the confidence interval, how can rise

8、 under favorable market conditions can be analyzed. As a result of this analysis, to meet the level of cash payments , the probability of occurrence of certain changes in the cash flow, working capital requirements for

9、market risk are determined in consideration of cash planning is done. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the risks that may arise due to the deviation of cash flows. In this context, based on 2014 budget of a samp

10、le business, cash flow at risk will be calculated. To manage the liquidity risk of sample business, an analysis will be carried out in two different scenarios whether to use or not to use a credit. © 2014 The Auth

11、ors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/ peer-review under responsibility of Academic World Research and Education Center. Keywords: Cash Flow, Risk, Financial Planning 1. Introduction Risk is defined as an event

12、that has a probability of occurring, and could have either a positive or negative impact to a project should that risk occur. A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, one or more impacts (www.phe.gov). The

13、concept of risk is manageable due to the phenomenon of constantly being analyzed by investors, and development tools for hedging evil is constantly monitored studies. Risk management is a rapidly developing discipline

14、and there are many and varied views and descriptions of what risk management involves, how it should be conducted and what it is for (www.theirm.org). * Ceren Oral. Tel.: +90 252 211 54 01 E-mail address: ceren.uzar@gm

15、ail.com © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Selection and/ peer-review under responsibili

16、ty of Academic World Research and Education Center264 Ceren Oral and G. Cenk Akkaya / Procedia Economics and Finance 23 ( 2015 ) 262 – 266 covers the different functions of the business of the budget and also re

17、flects the main purpose that the business will reach (Büker et al., 1997). Outlined in the general operating budget and business organized according to the major functions of the budget, is divided into three grou

18、ps as operating budgets, operating expenses and capital budgets, and including budget. Divided into three groups for this budget, is finalized as cash budget, proforma income statement and proforma balance sheet (Gen&#

19、231;türk and Bagc?: 2012). 4. Value at Risk- (VAR) Scientific studies, VAR measures the financial risk if done correctly, many businesses have shown that they can protect themselves against advance. Risk measuremen

20、t, it is of great importance in terms of the continuity of the company. Therefore, states, independent auditors, suppliers, customers, competitors, and even trade unions are interested in VAR figures (Demireli and Tane

21、r, 2009). Value at Risk is used mainly in all institutions exposed to financial risks. Due to the sector audit and control activities in the regulatory agencies and their holding of financial instruments ,in risk manag

22、ement mandatory largest trading portfolio with banks, pension funds, other financial institutions, Value at Risk provides useful results non-financial institutions exposed to financial risk (Jorion, 2000). Value at Ri

23、sk, is a risk management tool. Also, it is used to measure in the reporting of information on the risks of the company, risk-adjusted returns that permit the use of resources within the company to determine the position

24、 and performance measuring. VAR, estimates interest rates, inflation, exchange rate and stock prices as well as the total effect of market risk. Thus, for a predetermined period and a confidence interval, which are se

25、nsitive to changes in market factors specific to the assets and liabilities represents the total expected loss. So that; Micro base can be also used to invest in a single investment portfolio as at the macro level (Akt

26、a?, 2008). 5. Cash Flow at Risk- (C-FaR) C-FaR is defined as an analytic method of measuring with high degree of probability the risk of cash flow shocks for non-financial firms by its producers. This model helps fi

27、rms by being a measure to evaluate the changes in their values. The model is proposed as a form of VaR for finding the overall risk against a firm’s cash flow (Vural, 2004). The company's cash levels can vary consi

28、derably over time depending on, payment and collection cycle. Made full and timely payment of sufficient operating capital to keep and disruption of operations, it is important to predict cash levels correctly. Cash Fl

29、ow at Risk; as well as financial strategies and long-term investment planning based on the scientific basis of creation, it provides an assessment of capital structure. Through different scenarios that may occur rarely

30、 even considers events (Balkoç, 2012). The firms want to know their C-FaR for the purpose of their capital structure policy. Capital structure policy means the debt-equity choice of the firms. These firms try to e

31、xploit the benefits of debt against the potential costs such as financial distress. C-FaR helps firms to evaluate their probability of financial distress by interpreting the cash flow volatility. And C-FaR helps them t

32、o consider new investments and make strategic decisions (Vural, 2004). The difference between the CFaR and the analogy of value at risk (VaR) is that the CFaR focuses on the operating cash flow, whereas the VaR on the

33、asset value, and the time horizon of the CFaR can even be a quarter or one year. The essence of the CFaR metrics is to condense the overall corporate risk exposure into one manageable figure. Management must be fully a

34、ware what risk measures are monitored by those concerned within the company, and has to disclose the related information in the form of a risk report accordingly (Kuti, 2011). 6. Application The purpose of the study, d

35、ue to the deviation of cash flows is to assess the risks that may arise. In this context, through a sample of the 2014 budget business, cash flow risk will be calculated. This sample businesses’, to manage liquidity ri

36、sk, such as whether or not to use credit will be carried out an analysis in two different scenarios in Table 1. In this context assumptions are; (a) Operating income of $ 30 million in 2014 sales forecast (b) 30% of sal

37、es is risky (c) in 2014, dealer loans, annuities, term loans and other payments to be made from the sum of $ 33 million (d) the entity is evaluated in the current market conditions would provide more than $ 4 million i