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1、GLOBALISATION AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE*BY KYM ANDERSONUniversity of Adelaide and Australian National University (kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au)For most of the past 10,000 years, long-distance agricultural trade has focused

2、on crop seeds or cuttings, breeding animals, and farm production technologies, before the dramatic falls in trade costs over the past two centuries allowed the gradual addition of farm outputs in raw or processed form to

3、 long-distance trade. That process was helped or hindered in various periods and places by governments’ trade-related policies. This paper traces the impact of those devel- opments on terms of trade during the first glob

4、alisation wave to 1913 and then looks briefly at the inter-war period, before concentrating on the period since the 1950s.JEL categories: F5, F17, F63, O13, Q17, Q18Keywords: agricultural protection, agricultural revolut

5、ions, export taxes, global economy-wide model projections, structural transformations, trade costsINTRODUCTIONSince globalisation has to do with the lowering of costs of doing business across space, one manifestation of

6、it is an expansion of trade across national borders. Natural barriers to trade tend to fall following technological advances in the provision of transport and communication services, while governmental barriers to intern

7、ational trade are less predictable and are as prone to rising as to falling. The purpose of this paper is to provide a guide to changes in both sets of barriers to international economic integration insofar as they affec

8、t trade in farm products.* Revision of a paper presented at the Workshop on Globalization: Past, Present and Prospective, University of Adelaide, 22 October 2013. The author is grateful for modelling collaboration with A

9、nna Strutt, helpful comments from workshop participants, and funding support from the Australian Research Council and the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. Views expressed are the author’s alone.bs_b

10、s_bannerAustralian Economic History Review, Vol. 54, No. 3 November 2014 ISSN 0004-8992 doi: 10.1111/aehr.12050285 © 2014 Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty LtdEARLY

11、ORIGINS OF AGRICULTUREThe move from hunter/gatherer to the domestication of crops and animals for food and beverage production began in the Near East and (in the case of rice) China about 8500 BC and possibly earlier.2 A

12、griculture is thus the world’s oldest industry. Thanks to its productivity growth and geographic diffusion, the world has been able to gradually urbanise and eventually industrialise. For most of the past 10,000 years, l

13、ong-distance agricultural trade has contrib- uted to the process of global economic growth and poverty reduction, but by concentrating not on the bulky outputs from farming – whose trade costs were prohibitive – but rath

14、er on farm inputs. Most notable among them are crop seeds or cuttings, breeding animals (and their associated diseases picked up by humans), and farm production technologies. Apart from rice (thought to have been first d

15、omesticated in the Yangtze Valley in China), those technologies were spread beyond their place of origin, which was mostly in the Fertile Crescent, partly by migrants who became coastal colonists in the Mediterranean Bas

16、in and then through adaptation in those colonised settings.3 The Near East/Western Asia was the origin of wheat, barley and wine grapes as well as domestic cattle, ducks, goats, honey bees, horses, pigs, and sheep.4From

17、the 1500s a similar process of colonisation and agricultural development began in other continents. Mostly it involved input and technology transfers from Europe, but there are some plants and animals which originated in

18、 the Americas that became globally significant (bean, cotton, maize, manioc/cassava, peanut, rubber, squash, sunflower, sweet potato, tobacco, tomato, white potato).There are also a couple from Africa (sorghum and millet

19、), a few from Asia (most notably rice and bananas), and one from Oceania (sugar, which is thought to have been first domesticated in New Guinea around 8000 BC). The migration of people, plants and animals was not without

20、 some human and ecological devastation. Indeed in some locations whole communities died from disease transmission.5 Some exotic weeds became pests too, as did insects attached to imported plants.6 However, those negative

21、 contributions from trade in domes- ticated plants and animals and their products were minor relative to the enormous contribution agricultural trade made to world supplies of food and fibre. The complementarity between

22、knowledge of local growing conditions and new crops and animals and associated technical knowhow led to substantial output growth that in turn supported population growth. So even though this exchange of farm2 Zohary, Ho

23、pf and Weiss, Domestication of plants. 3 Molina et al., Molecular evidence; Zeder, Domestication. 4 Hirst, Plant [and animal] domestication; McGovern, Ancient Wine; Uncorking the Past. 5 Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel; C

24、rosby, The Columbian Exchange; Nunn and Qian, The Columbian exchange. 6 A notable example of the latter is Phylloxera, an almost microscopic insect from North America that all but wiped out Europe’s wine industry in the

25、latter 1800s – but the American wine grape species that was able to tolerate it then provided the solution for rebuilding wine grape production in affected locations. Campbell, The Botanist and the Vintner.Globalisation

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