[雙語翻譯]外文翻譯--氣候變化與農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易

1、4200 英文單詞， 英文單詞，24000 英文字符，中文 英文字符，中文 7500 字文獻出處： 文獻出處：Huanga H, Lampea M V, Tongeren F V. Climate change and trade in agriculture[M]// Global environmental change and agriculture: assessing the impacts. 2012:31-41.Clima

2、te change and trade in agricultureHsin Huang, Martin von Lampe, Frank van TongerenAbstractAgricultural productivity in both developing and developed countries will have to improve to achieve substantial increases in food

3、 production by 2050 while land and water resources become less abundant and the effects of climate change introduce much uncertainty. Already less resilient production areas will suffer the most, as temperatures will ris

4、e further in tropical and semi-tropical latitudes and water-scarce regions will face even drier conditions. International trade plays an important role in compensating, albeit partially, for regional changes in productiv

5、ity that are induced by climate change. While a wellfunctioning international trade system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges, trade policies as such are imperfect instruments to induce less

6、emissions globally. A well-functioning international trading system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges. Hence welfare gains from reforms to trade policies may be greater than normally measure

7、d if they also reduce GHG emissions globally.Keywords: Climate change,Trade policy, Mitigation, Adaptation, Carbon leakage ,Carbon pricingDriving forces in agricultural markets: where does climate change come in?Accordin

8、g to some estimates global food production will have to increase by 70% until 2050 (relative to 2007), to meet the demands of a growing population (OECD, 2009, based on FAO, 2006, and Bruinsma, 2009). Agricultural produc

9、tivity in both developing and developed countries will have to improve to achieve this, while land and water resources become less abundant and the effects of climate change introduce much uncertainty. International trad

10、e will become increasingly important in connecting food surplus with food deficit areas.Climate change potentially affects key drivers of international trade in agricultural products. Trade theory has traditionally empha

11、sized differences in technology (Ricardo) and differences in endowments of production factors (Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson) as determinants of international trade. According to this body of literature, countries will tend

12、to specialize in exports of those goods that use intensively the relatively abundant factor of production.Through its effects on productivity and yields, climate change impacts on the technology dimension behind trade pa

13、tterns. Through its impact on the amounts of arable land and water, it impacts on the endowments dimension. Changes in the returns to factors of production employed in agriculture are driving the potential changes in pat

14、terns of geographical specialisation of production. While climate change has a direct bearing on those relative returns, international trade will tend to reinforce those changes, as trade in goods is ultimately an exchan

15、ge of the services of those production factors incorporated in the traded goods. If a production factor is specific to the production of one good, such as land being (almost) specific to agriculture, the specific factor

16、model (Ricardo–Viner) shows that trade will increase the returns of the specific factor used in the export good.On the input side to agricultural production a number of major factors have a direct link to climate change.

17、 (for a more comprehensive review see e.g. FAO (2003, 2006), This particularly have direct implications on agricultural markets and trade flows.A new set of climate-change related policies adds to this set of interventio

18、ns and affects the incentives that producers and consumers are facing. Policies such as carbon taxes, border carbon adjustments and carbon footprint standards alter the relative prices of commodities according to their c

19、arbon content and thus may hamper or foster trade flows, depending on the nature of their implementation. The challenge is to design policies that are addressing climate change while being least trade restrictive.To asse

20、ss how exactly those impacts translate into changes in factor returns, production and trade patterns, including specialisation within the agricultural sector and between agriculture and other sectors, large scale models

21、are needed that incorporate huge amounts of data. Even with well developed data to support future projections with empirical observation, the assessment remains somewhat speculative as their exist many uncertainties, par

22、ticularly regarding the impacts of climate change on productivity of crops and livestock. A part of that uncertainty stems from still inconclusive scientific results on the future evolution of climate change, another par

23、t stems from the inherent unpredictability of developments in new technologies and techniques to adapt to changing climatic circumstances.Climate change and impact on agricultureClimate change projections vary and there

24、are different views about the extent of likely effects of climate change on agriculture. Despite those differences, the consensus is that already less resilient production areas will suffer the most, as temperatures will

25、 raise further in lower latitudes (tropical and semi-tropical) and water-scarce regions will face even drier conditions. Heat-related and water borne-diseases related to rising temperatures and more flooding may also inc

26、rease food safety risks.There is a large body of literature on the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, but generally individual studies are only focusing on a particular country or region. The vast majo

27、rity of studies are on crops, and only a few on livestock. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), in its latest assessment (Fourth Assessment Report, AR4),2 summarizes the global agricultural situati

28、on as follows:· Climate change will lead to higher average global temperatures over the time scale of several decades. The global distribution of temperature change is quite variable – locally this may translate int

29、o more extremes of warm and cold.· Implications for crop yields are generally positive for temperature increases up to 3 °C (longer growing season and CO2 fertilization), after which increasing heat stress impl

30、ies a trend to decreases in crop yields. While there is much uncertainty around these estimates, whatever the net effect globally, the expectation is that farm productivity may be higher in temperate rain-fed regions and

31、 lower in the tropics. The negative impacts on yield may be partly overcome through adoption of appropriate varieties, but requires investment into basic research and development as well as into deployment of new varieti

32、es and extension.· Higher temperatures lead to greater evapotranspiration, and therefore faster cycling of water through the system, although the global quantity available may not change significantly. Patterns of p

33、recipitation are very likely to change. Floods and droughts may become more frequent; however, there is a high degree of uncertainty on the causal relationships between climate change and frequency of extreme events. Whi