[雙語翻譯]國(guó)際貿(mào)易專業(yè)外文翻譯—全球貿(mào)易與國(guó)際貿(mào)易體系透視（節(jié)選）

1、字?jǐn)?shù)：英文 字?jǐn)?shù)：英文 3241 3241 單詞， 單詞，17258 17258 字符；中文 字符；中文 5649 5649 漢字 漢字出處： 出處：Keck Keck A, A, Hancock Hancock J, J, Nee Nee C. C. Perspectives Perspectives for for Global Global Trade Trade and and the the International Int

2、ernational Trading Trading System[J]. System[J]. Wirtschaftsdienst, Wirtschaftsdienst, 2018, 2018, 98(1): 98(1): 16-23. 16-23.外文文獻(xiàn)： 外文文獻(xiàn)： Perspectives for Global Trade and the International Trading SystemAbstract The au

3、thors review current developments and future prospects for international trade, arguing that despite the recent slowdown, trade remains an important driver of economic growth and development. Scepticism towards further t

4、rade opening needs to be addressed, notably via appropriate domestic adjustment policies. One challenge to advancing further global economic integration lies in the rapid transformation of trade itself and the nature of

5、remaining barriers. The authors highlight new models of trade cooperation that can help to make progress at the global level while accommodating countries‘ diverse interests and levels of development.IntroductionGlobal t

6、rade is at a historic crossroads. For 60 years after the Second World War, trade grew faster than economic output – clear evidence that the world economy was becoming ever more open and integrated – as countries steadily

7、 broke down the economic barriers between them in a succession of multilateral and regional initiatives. Moreover, this process of trade-led integration – or globalisation – seemed to be accelerating. With the conclusion

8、 of the Uruguay Round, the expansion of the EU, the creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the accession of China to the World Trade Organization (WTO), trade expanded at almost trade elasticitie

9、s raised concerns about whether world trade might have permanently lost its dynamism.The WTO monitors current trade and economic developments using a variety of mechanisms, including biannual trade forecasts, quarterly w

10、orld trade volume estimates, a composite leading indicator called the World Trade Outlook Indicator and trade policy monitoring reports. For the first time since the financial crisis, trade and GDP growth in 2017 have su

11、rprised on the upside, as statistics and forecasts have been revised upward substantially. Whether this marks a turning point in the trajectory of trade remains to be seen. Faster trade growth is driven not just by stron

12、ger underlying GDP growth but also by the composition of that growth. The IMF paper points out that investment spending tends to be the most importintensive category of expenditure in most countries, and this has been co

13、nspicuously weak in advanced economies for several years. As will be discussed below, sound macroeconomic policies, further trade opening as well as policies aimed at encouraging investment could raise the long-run growt

14、h projections for both trade and GDP, which currently tend to follow the low range scenario in the long-term projections established by Fontagné, Fouré and Keck and the WTO.If both GDP and trade are picking up

15、at the same time, the consequences for the elasticity of trade are unclear. The trade growth-to-GDP growth ratios of 2-to-1 or higher which characterised the 1990s and early 2000s are probably historical anomalies, drive

16、n by circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated. These include the economic opening of China, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and major trade liberalisations including the creation of NAFTA, the completion of the E

17、U single market, and the establishment of the WTO. Escaith and Miroudot point out that the 1990s were a period of rapid economic convergence in which returns on investment in developing countries were high compared to de