影響歐洲排污權交易計劃的三種類型直接成本,間接成本和不確定性【外文翻譯】

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文（設計）</p><p>　　外 文 翻 譯</p><p>　　題 目 基于排污權交易規(guī)則的環(huán)境會計問題研究 </p><p>　　專 業(yè) 會計學 </p><p>　　外文題目 Three t

2、ypes of impact from the European Emission</p><p>　　：direct cost, indirect cost and uncertainty </p><p>　　外文出處 Economics and Management of Climate Change </p><p>　　2008(Part

3、 II):P111-123 </p><p>　　外文作者 Volker Hoffmann；Thomas Trautmann </p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　Three types of impact from the European Emission T

4、rading Scheme: direct cost, indirect cost and uncertainty</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　The authors identify three types of impact from the European Emission Trading Scheme on th

5、e affected companies: direct impact, indirect impact, and uncertainty. While direct impact refers to the cost of buying allowances, indirect impact refers to the increased input factor cost as suppliers price in their em

6、ission cost. Uncertainty refers to the limited planning reliability as many details of the regulation are still under negotiation or only last for a few years. Based on a Europe-wide survey,</p><p>　　Keyword

7、s: Emission trading, corporate strategy, uncertainty</p><p>　　1 Introduction</p><p>　　In January 2005 the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) commenced operation. Whil

8、e the actual trading of emission allowances seems to be up and running, the question remains whether the EU ETS will induce technological innovation in order to reach the Kyoto targets (Gagelmann and Frondel 2005; Hoffma

9、nn and Trautmann 2006; Schleich and Betz 2005). There appears to be agreement that an incentive-based approach in environmental policy has a higher probability of inducing </p><p>　　When investigating compan

10、ies' decisions regarding their strategic response to the EU ETS, we propose that there are three types of impact from the EU ETS that need to be taken into account in order to understand the incremental effect of the

11、 EU ETS. The first type is the impact from direct cost resulting from a company's need to buy allowances: The cost for covering its direct carbon emissions influences future investment decisions and technology choice

12、s. Most companies already reflect the allow</p><p>　　Second, there can be an impact from indirect cost on strategic decisions. This effect results if a directly impacted company has the ability to integrate

13、its direct carbon cost into its product prices: The company generates an indirect cost effect on other companies with positions in the value chain after the emitter. Thus the impact of indirect cost reflects the indirect

14、 emissions that a company generates with its demand for CO2-intense products further up the value chain.</p><p>　　Third, we argue that the impact from uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the EU ETS

15、 is an important factor that needs to be considered when studying companies' strategic decisions (compare Hoffmann and Trautmann 2006). Indeed there is little understanding of the relevance of uncertainty in the cont

16、ext of implementing policy instruments. Marcus 1981 notes "it is difficult to know whether policy uncertainty is simply a rationalization for not innovating or whether there is a cause-and-ef</p><p>　　N

17、ote that the third type of impact, uncertainty, cannot be viewed isolated from the impact from direct and indirect cost. Uncertainty can cause strategic reactions independent of cost effects (Aragón-Correa and Sharm

18、a 2003), but may also moderate the strategic response to cost effects (Marcus and Kaufman 1986). Hoffmann and Trautmann 2006 showed a correlation between the reported impact of the EU ETS on investment decisions and the

19、level of perceived uncertainty, indicating interdependence betwe</p><p>　　Some authors have argued that the role of uncertainty can only be understood when taking a company's industry specific context in

20、to account (Hrebiniak and Snow 1980). We argue that the industry specific context is a particularly important parameter as it reflects the relative importance of direct or indirect emissions and the local or global chara

21、cter of competition.</p><p>　　In the following sections we will analyze the three types of impact, direct cost, indirect cost, and uncertainty in more detail and subsequently present empirical results that s

22、upport both the presence of these three types of impact in the case of the EU ETS and the industry-dependence of these effects.</p><p>　　2 Three types of regulatory impact</p><p>　　We define imp

23、act as an influence on a company's decision making regarding its technology strategy: There is a higher impact if the EU ETS shows a higher influence on a company's technology strategy. The term influence refers

24、to the incremental effect from the EU ETS. Thus we specifically analyze the effect that would not be there without the EU ETS. Technology strategy sets the focus on investment decisions rather than on decisions regarding

25、 the trading of actual allowances. Type of impact refer</p><p>　　Fig. 1 Three types of impact from the European Emission Trading Scheme (main EU ETS industries)</p><p>　　2.1 Direct cost</p>

26、;<p>　　The primary goal of the implementation of the EU ETS is to induce the introduction of low carbon technologies via the price for emission allowances that a company needs to compensate for its direct carbon e

27、missions (Schleich and Betz2005). We refer to this type of impact as impact of direct cost.</p><p>　　In the first half of 2005 the cost for allowances has ranged from 8 €/tCO2 in January to 30 €/tCO2 in Jun

28、e and stabilized at 20 €/tCO2 in the subsequent months. There have been many attempts to forecast companies' strategic decisions in response to the cost of their carbon emissions. An analysis of the International Ene

29、rgy Agency (IEA) for example showed that power plant operation would switch from coal to gas at an allowance price of 20 €/tCO2 (Reinaud 2003).According to a study of Vattenfall a</p><p>　　Several authors ha

30、ve started to analyze companies' actual strategic responses. However, since the EU ETS has just started, the studies typically focus on the response to general climate policy and climate change. A cluster analysis of

31、 data gathered from the Carbon Disclosure Project3 identified a set of typical strategies along two dimensions (Kolk and Pinkse 2005). Along the first dimension, companies can choose between innovation and compensation s

32、trategies, depending on an economic analysis o</p><p>　　2.2 Indirect cost</p><p>　　The second type of impact from the EU ETS results from the ability of a company's supplier to pass through

33、its cost from direct emissions. In the case of the power generation sector the cost from direct emissions may be reflected as opportunity cost in the electricity price. Consequently, the EU ETS has an indirect impact on

34、power consuming industries such as the steel, the pulp and paper, or the cement industry. This effect may also impact industries such as the aluminum industry which, accordi</p><p>　　The spot price for power

35、 at the European Energy Exchange (EEX) increased from 27.35 €/MWh in June 2004 to 29.74 €/MWh in December 2004 and 46.67 €/MWh in June 20054. This corresponds to a 9% increase in the second half of 2004 and a 57% increas

36、e in the first half of 2005. Of course this increase is driven by multiple factors such as the oil and gas price and cannot be assigned entirely to effects from the introduction of the EU ETS. However, according to the F

37、inancial Times Deutschland, a German</p><p>　　According to this same article, power intensive industries in Germany are expecting an additional cost of 1000 Mio € that cannot be explained without impact from

38、 the EU ETS. This cost increase has an impact on strategic decisions of power consuming companies, which we call impact from indirect cost: large aluminum producers such as Norsk Hydro are currently assigning 10 €/MWh of

39、 their increase in power prices to indirect effects from the EU ETS. Since power accounts for 40% in the production cos</p><p>　　2.3 Uncertainty</p><p>　　The third type of impact from the EU ETS

40、 results from the limited predictability and planning reliability that the trading system creates in investment decisions (Trautmann et al. 2006). This limited predictability results from both price uncertainty regarding

41、 the market for emission allowances and from systemic uncertainties. The latter result from open questions regarding the objective, measures and rules, the implementation process of the EU ETS, as well as the interdepend

42、ence with other regu</p><p>　　An analysis of the status of the EU ETS by the Pew Center (2005) concludes that key remaining uncertainties include not only the expectations of future targets and prices but al

43、so the readiness of all parties to trade, linkages to other trading programs, the availability and use of project-based allowances, the impact of Russian emission credits, strategies of new Central and Eastern European m

44、ember states, the compliance role of governments, and progress in emission reductions from sectors outs</p><p>　　Since the EU ETS has been implemented, there is only little research regarding companies'

45、responses to the EU ETS and even less regarding companies' responses to uncertainty. However there are some indications that uncertainty is inducing a "wait-and-see"-strategy. An early investigation in Swed

46、en revealed that, although Sweden and Swedish companies have a tradition of being proactive in environmental policy and management, companies are acting passively when it comes to emission trading (Paulss</p><

47、p>　　3 Empirical evidence</p><p><b>　　3.1method</b></p><p>　　In order to investigate the three types of impact from the EU ETS, we conducted a Europe wide survey six months after

48、the launch of the trading scheme in January 2005. Since we wanted to understand the relative importance of direct and indirect cost impact, we chose to analyze the steel, pulp and paper, and cement industries. All three

49、industries are affected directly as they are covered by the EU ETS according to EU directive 2003/87/EC5. Since electricity accounts for a significant portion of </p><p>　　Source: Volker Volker Hoffmann. Tho

50、mas Trautmann .Three types of impact from the European Emission Trading Scheme:direct cost, indirect cost and uncertainty[J].Economics and Management of Climate Change.2008(Part II): 111-123.</p><p><b>

51、;　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　影響歐洲排污權交易計劃的三種類型:直接成本,間接成本和不確定性</p><p><b>　　簡介：</b></p><p>　　作者證明來自歐洲排污權交易方案的三種類型的影響會影響到公司:直接影響,間接影響,不確定性。而直接影響的成本是指購買免稅額的成本，間接影響指要素成本的增加和供應商的價

52、格在他們的排放成本。不確定性是指有限的規(guī)劃但可靠的規(guī)定的許多細節(jié)仍在談判或只持續(xù)數(shù)年。在全歐洲的調查的基礎上,作者進行了實證分析顯示相關性和工業(yè)依賴這些類型的影響公司的決策。</p><p>　　關鍵詞:排污權貿易、企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略、不確定性</p><p><b>　　1前言</b></p><p>　　2005年1月歐盟的溫室氣體排放貿易計劃(歐盟

53、ETS)開始運作。而實際上的交易排放津貼似乎是建成運行,問題在于歐盟ETS是否將會引導起技術創(chuàng)新以達到京都議定書的目標( Gagelmann和Frondel 2005；Hoffmann and Trautmann 2006；Schleich and Betz 2005)。似乎那里鼓勵基于在環(huán)境政策中的有誘導經(jīng)濟高效的技術創(chuàng)新與擴散指揮和控制的方法（Jaffe et al，2004 年 ；比高概率的協(xié)議Majumdar 和馬庫斯 2001

54、年）。然而，公司在其重要的規(guī)劃的可靠性，作為投資行業(yè)如電源和鋼鐵工業(yè)的決定目前提交公司未來 20 – 30 年。因此，歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)的執(zhí)行情況所引起的不明朗因素可能會影響公司的技術反應和影響的重要因素，是否主動或被動的戰(zhàn)略決策采?。ò⒗?科雷亞1998 年；2003 年夏爾馬和 Aragón-Correa）。</p><p>　　在調查有關戰(zhàn)略應對歐盟ETS的公司的決定時，我們建議有三種類型的從歐盟

55、電子投標系統(tǒng)，需要加以考慮，以便了解歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)的增量療效的影響。第一類是從產生的一家公司需要購買免稅額的直接成本的影響： 覆蓋其直接碳排放量的成本影響未來投資決策和技術可供選擇。大多數(shù)公司已經(jīng)反映出津貼費用的日常運作和未來的投資決定 (2005 年預委會) 的評價。</p><p>　　第二，可以有一個從戰(zhàn)略決策的間接成本的影響。如果直接受影響的公司有能力將其直接的碳成本集中到其產品價格產生這種效果：公司發(fā)

56、射器后生成與價值鏈中的位置的其他公司的間接成本影響。因此間接成本的影響反映了一家公司生成二氧化碳激烈產品進一步提高價值鏈及其需求的間接排放量。</p><p>　　第三，我們認為從歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)的實施不確定性的影響是一個需要研究公司的戰(zhàn)略決策時要考慮的重要因素(compare Hoffmann and Trautmann 2006)。事實上幾乎沒有了解相關的不確定性的上下文政策落實的工具。Marcus在1981

57、年寫到“很難知道政策不確定性是否只是一個沒有創(chuàng)新的合理化或是否有政策的不確定性和技術變革的原因和影響關系”。理論與實證研究顯示混合的圖片： 在Paulsson 和Malmborg2004年的調查結果指示在有關歐盟對外政策的不確定性結果"等待看見"戰(zhàn)略中有些作者認為環(huán)境的不確定性一般增加了一家公司將會發(fā)展一個積極主動的環(huán)境戰(zhàn)略的可能性(Aragón-Correa and Sharma 2003；Ettlie

58、1983)。</p><p>　　請注意第三個類型的影響：不確定性。不能查看隔絕的直接和間接成本的影響。不確定性可能會導致戰(zhàn)略反應獨立的成本影響 （阿拉貢·科雷亞和夏爾馬 2003年），但也可能會溫和成本影響 （Marcus and Kaufman 1986年） 戰(zhàn)略回應。在 2006 年Hoffmann和 Trautmann表明歐盟ETS的報告對投資決策的影響和感知的不確定度水平相關性表示這些類型的影

59、響之間的相互依存。</p><p>　　有些作者認為,不確定性的角色只能理解拍照的時候公司的行業(yè)特定的語境記錄(Hrebiniak and Snow 1980)。我們認為行業(yè)特定的環(huán)境是一個特別重要的參數(shù)，因為它反映了直接或間接排放量的相對重要性和本地或全球競爭。</p><p>　　以下各節(jié)中，我們將分析影響、 直接成本、 間接成本和更多的詳細信息和支持這三種類型的影響在歐盟ETS的情況

60、下存在這些影響的行業(yè)依賴的隨后目前實證結果的不確定性的三種類型。</p><p>　　2 三種類型的管理影響</p><p>　　我們定義影響產生影響公司的決策提供技術策略:有一個高影響如果歐盟ETS表演提出了更高的影響公司的技術策略。術語影響是指影響從歐盟ETS的增量式效果資產。因此,我們具體分析了那可能不會影響歐盟ETS。技術戰(zhàn)略將焦點設置投資決定，而不是有關交易的實際免稅額的決定。類

61、型的影響是指通過歐盟ES有一個影響：因果路徑可以直接通過排污權津貼定價（直接成本），間接通過傳遞津貼成本（間接成本），或者通過不確定性。數(shù)據(jù)顯示了所有三種類型的影響。間接成本分析我們致力于電力價格的影響，這是特別重要的電源密集型行業(yè)如鋼鐵、 紙漿和紙和水泥的成本結構。已在 2004 年 1 月電源密集的工業(yè)協(xié)會指出在電力工業(yè)中可能意外利潤從一個增加的電力價格和對電源密集的工業(yè)競爭力的影響(EUROFER et al.2004)。<

62、/p><p>　　圖 1 三種類型的從歐洲排放貿易計劃的影響（主要歐盟ETS行業(yè)）</p><p><b>　　2.1直接成本</b></p><p>　　歐盟ETS的執(zhí)行情況的主要目標是使采用低碳技術通過一家公司需要彌補其直接碳排放的廢氣排放津貼的價格(Schleich and Betz2005)。我們將這種類型的影響稱為直接成本的影響。<

63、/p><p>　　在 2005 年上半年津貼的成本已從 8 歐元/當量在 6 月 1 至 30 歐元/當量和穩(wěn)定在 20 歐元/當量隨后幾個月不等。有很多嘗試預測其碳排放量的成本響應公司的戰(zhàn)略決策。國際能源機構的分析，例如顯示電廠操作會從煤切換到 20 歐元/當量的免稅額的價位氣體(Reinaud 2003)。Vattenfall 的一項研究中碳捕獲和討論電力工業(yè)和消費行業(yè)，電源的存儲投資也需要以津貼價格超出 20

64、歐元/當量，使這一技術可行。</p><p>　　幾位作者已經(jīng)開始分析公司的實際戰(zhàn)略對策，但是，由于歐盟ETS研究通常集中對一般的氣候政策和氣候變化的反應。從披露項目收集的數(shù)據(jù)的聚類分析確定一套兩個維度的典型策略(Kolk and Pinkse 2005)。在第一次的年度公司可以選擇創(chuàng)新與補償取決于經(jīng)濟分析的津貼價格和減輕成本的策略。之后我們的影響的定義，我們只會考慮選擇創(chuàng)新作為由于補償策略并不反映該特定公司的技

65、術變革正在影響的公司。第二個維度沿著這些創(chuàng)新戰(zhàn)略被觀察三種不同組織級別：公司第一次可通過過程內部創(chuàng)新改進或第二個垂直內通過產品開發(fā)的供應鏈。第三，Kolk and Pinkse辯稱一家公司可以甚至超越水平供應鏈在燃料電池發(fā)展的情況下如實現(xiàn)新的產品和市場組合正在進行了石油和汽車公司合作。根據(jù)我們的影響的定義影響直接成本，因為所有的三個操作反映在受影響的公司的技術變革的回應，我們會考慮所有三個操作。</p><p>

66、<b>　　2.2直接成本</b></p><p>　　第二種類型的從歐盟ETS的影響來自于一家公司的供應商能夠通過其成本直接排放。在電力發(fā)電部門的情況下直接排放的成本可能列為電價的機會成本。因此，歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)有間接影響消費行業(yè)如鋼鐵、 紙漿和紙或水泥工業(yè)的電源。他的影響也可能會影響到歐盟ETS指令 2003年/87/EC，根據(jù)不包括在歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)項的鋁工業(yè)等行業(yè)。因為這種影響，反映

67、了一家公司間接導致消費電源或其它"不干凈"的貨物的排放量，我們稱這種類型的影響為影響從間接成本。</p><p>　　電源在歐洲能源交易所 （EEX） 的現(xiàn)貨價格從 6 月 2004年到 29.74 歐元/兆瓦時在 2004 年 12 月和 6 月 46.67 歐元/兆瓦時 27.35 歐元/兆瓦時增加 20054。這相當于在 2004 年下半年增加了 9%和 2005 年上半年增幅為 57%

68、。當然這種增加由多個因素，例如石油和天然氣價格驅動的不能完全以影響指定從歐盟ETS的介紹。但是，依法對金融的時代德國電源實用程序在等 300–350 Mio。內部估計在 2004 年 9 月從發(fā)射津貼 （Gammelin和Hecking 2005年） 的機會成本定價歐元起更多的利潤。</p><p>　　依法同一本文電源密集在德國期待 1000 Mio的額外費用而不會影響從歐盟ETS不能解釋的歐元。此成本增加對戰(zhàn)

69、略決策的電力消費產生影響的間接成本影響我們要求的公司：大鋁生產商如Norsk Hydro就間接影響當前分配歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)的 10 歐元/兆瓦的電力價格增加。</p><p><b>　　2.3不確定性</b></p><p>　　從歐盟ETS的影響的第三種結果從有限的可預測性和規(guī)劃在投資決策中創(chuàng)建的貿易系統(tǒng)的可靠性(Trautmann et al. 2006)。有限

70、的可預測性結果從兩個排放津貼的市場價格不確定性和系統(tǒng)性的不明朗因素。打開歐盟ETS問題有關的目標、 措施和實施過程，以及其他管理法規(guī)與這些相互依存關系的規(guī)則中，后者結果部分反映在津貼價格。公司就主動與無功維度的這種不明朗因素有不同反應，我們指這種類型的影響為不確定性(Aragón-Correa and Sharma 2003;Paulsson and von Malmborg 2004)。</p><p&g

71、t;　　皮尤中心（2005 年）通過的歐盟ETS的狀態(tài)分析的結論關鍵剩余的不明朗因素包括不僅未來目標和價格的期望，但所有各方愿意貿易，其他貿易程序、 可用性和使用的基于項目的免稅額的聯(lián)系，俄羅斯發(fā)射學分、 新一屆中央戰(zhàn)略和東歐的新成員國家戰(zhàn)略、 各國政府的法規(guī)遵從性角色的影，和歐盟ETS之外的部門的排放量減少的進展。以某種方式這些不確定性可能會部分反映在將來的分配和最終津貼價格，京都議定書涵蓋2012 年的很多問題關于所謂的 post-

72、Kyoto 或 2012 年后階段保持打開狀態(tài)：2004年11 月 12 月公司最大的擔心包括不確定性的一項調查關于分配 2008–12 和2012年發(fā)布的政策(PWC2005)。</p><p>　　由于歐盟ETS已經(jīng)實施,幾乎沒有研究對于歐盟ETS的反應和關于公司的回應不確定。但是有一些跡象顯示，不確定性誘導的“觀望”的戰(zhàn)略。在瑞典的早期調查顯示，雖然瑞典和瑞典公司長久以來的傳統(tǒng),并以積極的態(tài)度環(huán)境政策和管理

73、，公司的行為是被動地談到排放交易(Paulsson and von Malmborg 2004)。研究人員聲稱“含糊不清政府政策自稱防止公司作出的長期戰(zhàn)略對氣候變化緩解總和排污權交易特別”。此外，跨行業(yè)的影響對歐洲公司的分析揭示了歐盟顯著相關資產公司之間的影響，這意味著歐盟ETS在他們的公司投資決策,看到一個高水平的不確定性因素(Hoffmann and Trautmann 2006)。因此，即使從直接或間接成本的影響可能會誘使一項戰(zhàn)略

74、投資，從經(jīng)濟的角度來看，從不確定性的影響可以在的戰(zhàn)略，例如通過改變只是延緩否則為可行的投資決定。</p><p><b>　　3 實證研究</b></p><p><b>　　3.1方法</b></p><p>　　為了研究來自歐盟ETS的三種類型的影響，我們進行了歐洲廣泛調查交易計劃 2005 年 1 月的實施后的六個月

75、。因為希望了解的直接和間接成本影響的相對重要性，我們選擇分析鋼、 紙漿和紙，和水泥工業(yè)。受影響的所有三個行業(yè)受有依法歐盟指令 2003年/87/EC5 的歐盟電子投標系統(tǒng)的直接。由于電力占其生產成本的很大一部分，所有的三個行業(yè)進一步受到間接通過電力行業(yè)。最后，這些行業(yè)又怎么計量EU ETS 所涵蓋的排放量的 40%，占很大的份額，歐盟ETS和理解的不確定性影響的堅實基礎。</p><p>　　出處:沃爾克.霍夫曼