[雙語翻譯]外文翻譯--滑坡和洪水對(duì)公路網(wǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響（英文）

1、doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.06.168 The Economic Impact of Landslides and Floods on the Road Network Mike G Winter1,2*, Barbara Shearer1, Derek Palmer3, David Peeling3, Clare Harmer3 and Jonathan Sharpe3 1Transport Rese

2、arch Laboratory (TRL), Edinburgh, U.K. 2University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, U.K. 3Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Wokingham, U.K. mwinter@trl.cco.uk, bshearer@trl.co.uk, dpalmer@trl.co.uk, dpeeling@trl.co.uk, c

3、harmer@trl.co.uk, jsharpe@trl.co.uk Abstract Even in the absence of serious injuries and fatalities, landslide and flood events can have significant socio-economic impacts. These include the severance of access to and

4、from relatively remote communities for services and markets for goods; employment, health and educational opportunities; and social activities. The economic impacts can be classified as: direct economic impacts, direct

5、 consequential economic impacts, and indirect consequential economic impacts. In addition, the vulnerability shadow cast can be extensive and its geographical extent can be determined by the transport network rather t

6、han the relatively small footprint of the event itself. Using a number of debris flow events and a flood event in Scotland this paper places values on the economic impacts of landslides and floods. It also demonstrates

7、 the widespread impact of the events by means of the vulnerability shadow that is cast.. Keywords: Landslides, debris flow, roads, economics, management; mitigation 1 Introduction In Scotland in August 2004 a series of

8、debris flows was associated with monthly average rainfall substantially in excess of the norm. Critically, some of the resulting landslides affected important parts of the trunk (strategic) road network, linking not on

9、ly cities but also smaller, remote communities. Notable events occurred at the A83 between Glen Kinglas and to the north of Cairndow (9 August), the A9 to the north of Dunkeld (11 August), and the A85 at Glen Ogle (18

10、August). While there were * Corresponding Author Procedia EngineeringVolume 143, 2016, Pages 1425–1434Advances in Transportation Geotechnics 3 . The 3rd International Conference on Transportation Geotechnics (ICTG 2016)S

11、election and peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Programme Committee of ICTG 2016 c ? The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.1425Direct economic impacts: The direct costs of clean-up and repair/replacement

12、 of lost/damaged infrastructure in the broadest sense and the costs of search and rescue. These should be relatively easy to obtain or estimate for any given event. Direct consequential economic impacts: These general

13、ly relate to 'disruption to infrastructure' and are really about loss of utility. For example, the costs of closing a road (or implementing single-lane working with traffic lights) for a given period with a giv

14、en diversion, are relatively simple to estimate using well-established models. The costs of fatal/non-fatal injuries and other incident accident costs may also be included here and may be taken (on a societal basis) di

15、rectly from published figures. While these are set out for the costs of road traffic accidents, or indeed rail accidents, there seems to be no particular reason why they should be radically different to those related t

16、o a landslide as both are likely to include the recovery of casualties from vehicles. Indeed, for events in which large numbers of casualties may be expected to occur, data relating to railway accidents may be more app

17、ropriate. Indirect consequential economic impacts: Often landslide events affect access to remote rural areas with economies that are based upon transport-dependent activities, and thus the vulnerability can be extensi

18、ve and is determined by the transport network rather than the event itself. If a given route is closed for a long period then how, for example, does that affect confidence in, and the ongoing viability of, local busine

19、ss? Manufacturing and agriculture (e.g. forestry in western Scotland and coffee production in Jamaica) are a concern as access to markets is constrained, the costs of access are increased and business profits are affec

20、ted and short-term to long-term viability may be adversely affected. Perhaps of even more concern are the impacts on tourist (and other service economy) businesses. It is important to understand how the reluctance of v

21、isitors to travel to and within 'landslide areas' is affected after an event that has received publicity and/or caused casualties and how a period of inaccessibility (reduced or complete) affects the short- and

22、 long-term travel patterns to an area for tourist services. Such costs form a fundamental element of the overall economic impact on society of such events. They are thus important to governments as they should affect t

23、he case for the assignation of budgets to landslide risk mitigation and remediation activities. However, these are also the most difficult costs to determine as they are generally widely dispersed both geographically a

24、nd socially. Additionally, in an environment in which compensation might be anticipated, albeit often erroneously, those that have the best data, the businesses affected by such events, are also those that anticipate

25、such compensatory events. The vulnerability shadow cast can be extensive and its geographical extent can be determined by the transport network, including closures and diversionary routes, rather than the relatively sma

26、ll footprint of the event itself (Winter the vulnerability shadow can be estimated to be of the order of 2,800km2 (Figure 1) which is, for the purpose of comparison, approximately two-and-a-half times the total land

27、area of Hong Kong SAR. The economic impact and the vulnerability shadow are concepts that apply equally to other discrete climate driven events that have the potential to close parts of the road network such as flood eve

28、nts. Like landslides such flood events are generally thought to be likely to increase in frequency as a result of climate change (Galbraith et al., 2005; Anon., 2011; Winter et al., 2010; Winer & Shearer, 2013). Th

29、e work of Schuster (1996), Highland (2006) and Schuster & Highland (2007) has been especially informative and helpful in determining the approach to this work. Typically other work in this area deals primarily with

30、 direct economic impacts (Klose et al., 2015) with some consideration of direct consequential economic impacts (Highland, 2012). Indeed, Highland describes decreased economic activity in some areas and increased econom