中國省域人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的動態(tài)演化研究

1、 摘 要 經(jīng)過改革開放四十年的高速發(fā)展，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”時(shí)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降，后續(xù)發(fā)展勢頭不足。隨著“后發(fā)優(yōu)勢”與市場經(jīng)濟(jì)釋放的“制度紅利” 、“人口紅利”的逐漸消退，當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型困難、創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動能力不足以及供求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡等一系列增長瓶頸，經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展后勁不足的矛盾突顯。為解決上述困境，擺脫“中等收入陷阱”約束，實(shí)施以人力資本帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變，充分釋放以人力資本帶動的“第二次人口紅利” ，將是有效解決上

2、述問題的主要路徑。 文章首先對國內(nèi)外人力資本的研究脈絡(luò)及成果進(jìn)行了整理，從概念、核算、與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系等多個(gè)方面進(jìn)行具體闡述。其次，詳細(xì)介紹數(shù)據(jù)來源與變量選取，在借鑒已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上建立了綜合指標(biāo)體系。隨后，構(gòu)建中國各區(qū)域人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的多系統(tǒng)耦合模型，探析 33 年來（1982-2014）兩大類系統(tǒng)間的協(xié)調(diào)演化機(jī)制，并對三系統(tǒng)耦合躍遷機(jī)制進(jìn)行了再討論。然后，文章運(yùn)用半?yún)?shù)可加模型探究區(qū)域間人力資本作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的非線性波動特征

3、，分析了人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的線性、非線性及綜合影響效應(yīng)。最后，采用分位數(shù)回歸模型分析在特定分位點(diǎn)人力資本等投入量的變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)力的大小，由此明確各投入要素對區(qū)域發(fā)展差異的影響。 在此基礎(chǔ)上， 應(yīng)用面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換回歸模型 （PSTR） ，分析城鄉(xiāng)人力資本腦力素質(zhì)和身體素質(zhì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的門檻特征與地區(qū)差異。 研究結(jié)果表明，中國各區(qū)域人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩系統(tǒng)間的耦合值較低，由東至西逐級遞減，中西部仍處于失調(diào)衰退狀態(tài)，尚未跨越至協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展階

4、段，分析表明東部應(yīng)加快培育人力資本的技術(shù)吸收及創(chuàng)新能力，而中西部應(yīng)加強(qiáng)技術(shù)水平的引進(jìn)及消化能力。另外， 半?yún)?shù)可加模型、分位數(shù)回歸模型及 PSTR 模型回歸結(jié)果表明我國人力資本腦力素質(zhì)與身體素質(zhì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動效應(yīng)具有顯著的地區(qū)差異；處于條件分布低端的省份要重視人力資本投資，切實(shí)將積累的先進(jìn)人力資本轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)力；處于條件分布高端的省份，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式要向技術(shù)導(dǎo)向性產(chǎn)業(yè)傾斜，走可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路。 關(guān)鍵詞：人力資本；經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；耦合； 關(guān)鍵詞：人

5、力資本；經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；耦合；半?yún)?shù)可加模型 半?yún)?shù)可加模型； PSTR 模型 模型 input factors on regional economic development. Meanwhile, the PSTR model was used to study the threshold characteristics and regional differences for human capital of mental quali

6、ty and physical quality to the economic growth. The results show that the level of coupling value is low and decreasing from East to West. Middle and west has not yet achieved transition from the recession to the coordin

7、ated development. The analysis shows that the eastern part should pay more attention to the independent innovation ability of human capital, while the central and western regions should pay attention to the imbalance abi

8、lity of human capital. In addition, the semi-parametric additive model and the quantile regression model and the PSTR model show that the stimulating effect of mental quality and physical quality of human capital on econ

9、omic growth exits regional difference and the provincial capital in the low-order condition should pay attention to the investment of human capital and effectively integrate the accumulation of advanced human capital int

10、o productive forces. In the high-order provinces, tilt the economic mode to the technology-oriented industrial, take the path of sustainable development. Keywords: Human Capital; Economic Growth; Coupling; Semi-Additive