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1、英文原文Theantilockbrakingsystemanomaly:adrinkingdriverproblemDavidDavidW.W.HarlessHarlessGegeGegeE.E.HofferHofferDepartmentofEconomicsVirginiaCommonwealthUni_ersityBox844000RichmondVA23284USAReceived30November2000receivedin

2、revisedfm19February2001accepted28February2001Animptantanomalywiththeincpationofsafetyappliancesintomotvehiclesistheineffectiveness–evenperverseeffects–ofantilockbrakingsystems(ABS)particularlyasmeasuredbyfatalcrashinvolv

3、ement.AnalysesofinsuranceclaimsintheUS(HighwayLossDataInstitute19941995)showednochangeinclaimfrequencyafterasetofGMvehiclesadoptedantilockbrakesin1992despiteengineeringstudiesshowingantilockbrakesresultedinmuchbetterbrak

4、ingperfmanceespeciallyonwetroads.UsingthesamegroupofGMvehiclesFarmeretal.(1997)foundthatadoptionofABSresultedinme1993–1995crashesresultinginthedeathofanABSvehicleoccupant.Anothergroupofvehiclesthatadoptedantilockbrakesas

5、earlyas1985werefoundtohavebeeninvolvedinbothmefatalcrashesresultinginthedeathofanABSvehicleoccupantmeinvolvementsoverall.Theseperverseeffectsweremostevidentinsinglevehiclecrashes.Updatingtheearlierpaperwith1996–1998datao

6、nthesametwogroupsofvehiclesFarmer(2001)findsthattheABSequippedvehiclesnolongerhadawsefatalaccidentinvolvementrate[16].TheABSanomalyhassparkedalargeprogramofresearchattheNationalHighwayTransptationSafetyAdministrationthem

7、anycomponentsofwhicharedescribedbyGarrottMazzae(1999).Severalexplanationshavebeenfwardedftheanomaly.Firstconsistentwiththeriskcompensationhypothesisthehigherincidenceoffatalcrashescouldbeduetoincreasedspeedaggressiveness

8、bydriversofABSequippedvehicles(Evans1995EvansGerrish1996).SecondtheremaybeproblemswithimproperoperationofABSequippedvehicles:thehigherincidenceofsinglevehiclecrashescouldbeduetoabruptsteeringchangesbyofanABSvehicleoccupa

9、nt.FexamplefromtheFARSfiles(NationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministration1997)weobserved328accidentsinvolvingtheedABSequipped1992modelyearGMvehiclelinesduringtheyears1993–l995.3Underanullhypothesisofnochangeinsuchfatalaccid

10、entinvolvementsuponadoptionofABSweexpect273.7suchinvolvementsgiventotalvehicleregistrationsofthe1992modelyearvehiclelinestheinvolvementrateof1991modelyearvehiclelineswithoutABS.Theresultingriskratio(=observedexpected)equ

11、als1.20.Onecanpresentatestofthenullhypothesisofnochangeintherateoffatalaccidentinvolvement(i.e.thattheriskratioisnotsignificantlydifferentfrom1.0)eitherthrougha95%confidenceintervalftheriskratioaChisquaredstatistic(=(obs

12、erved?expected)2expected)withonedegreeoffreedom(BreslowDay1987).AsinFarmeretal.(1997)thenumberoffatalaccidentsresultinginthedeathofanABSvehicleoccupantis20%higherthanexpectedduringthe1993–1995period(riskratio=1.20X2=10.7

13、9P=0.001).asinFarmer(2001)theriskratioisnotsignificantlydifferentfromoneduringthe1996–1998period(riskratio=0.95X2=0.97P=0.32)[16].Bifurcationofthesefatalaccidentsbywhetherthedriverofthevehiclewasdrinkingalcoholhasatremen

14、dousimpactontheriskratiosfaccidentsoccurringfrom1993to1995.DrinkingdriversinABSequippedvehiclelineshave82%meinvolvementsresultinginthedeathofanoccupantoftheABSvehiclethanexpectedgivenvehicleexposuresthenumberofdrinkingdr

15、iversinvolvedinsuchfatalaccidentsinpreABSvehicles(riskratio=1.82P=l.6E?11).Butfsoberdriverstheriskratio0.99isneitherpracticallystatisticallydifferentfromariskratioofone.Incontrasttothe1993–1995periodbifurcationbywhethert

16、hedriverwasdrinkingmakeslittledifferenceduringthe1996–1998period.Theriskratiois0.92fdrinkingdrivers0.96fsoberdriversneithersignificantlydifferentfromone.HencewhentheABSanomalyisobservedtheproblemappearstobelargelyconfine

17、dtodrinkingdriverswhentheABSanomalydisappearssotoodothedramaticdifferencesinriskratiosbetweendrinkingsoberdrivers.4Asimilarpatternexistsintheanalysisofallfatalaccidentinvolvements.Thereare64%mefatalaccidentinvolvementsth

18、anexpectedfdrinkingdriversduring1993through1995(P=4.4E?9).Duringthis3Farmeretal.reptfindingfourmesuchaccidentsduringthe1993–1995periodonemesuchaccidentduringthe1996–1998period.Theseveryslightdifferencesshouldhavenoimpact

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