管理式醫(yī)療2019年q1預(yù)覽市場會重新關(guān)注基本面

1、DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPTCONTAINSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLEGALENTITYDISCLOSURETHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asare

2、sultinvestsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.15April2019AmericasUnitedStatesEquityRese

3、archManagedCareManagedCareQUARTERLYResearchAnalystsA.J.Rice2123258134aj.rice@creditJailendraSingh2123258121jailendra.singh@creditEduardoRon2123257491eduardo.ron@creditCalebHarrisCPA2123257458caleb.harris@creditWillTheMar

4、ketRefocusonFundamentals1Q19Preview■UNHtoKickOffMCOs’Q1EarningsonApril16th.UNHwillbethefirstMCOtorept1Q19earnings(April16th)settingthetonefthegroup.1Q19earningsshouldgenerallybenefitfromstablemedicalcosttrendstheYYbenefi

5、tofarelativelyweakerfluseason(fluimpactedtheMLRby3550bpsonaveragein1Q18)theHealthInsurerFee(HIF)matiumstrongenrollmentgrowthprimarilyinMedicareAdvantage.Howeverthereareseveralitemswhichmightbefavableunfavabletoearningsde

6、pendinguponthecompany.FexamplegivenitspositiveseasonalearningscontributioninQ1HIXwillbeYYfavabletoearningsfCNC(giventhegrowthinenrollment).Howevertheexpectationfanmalizationofmarginsinthecontinuingindividualbusinesscould

7、beaYYheadwindfCNCtoamuchlesserextentANTMCI.FurthersharebuybackshouldcontributetoEPSfUNHHUMANTM.CIalsoreturnedtosharebuybacks(postESRXdealinlate2018).■PutsTakesbyIndividualMCOs.WeseepotentialearningsupsidefMCOsinourcovera

8、ge.Whiletherehasbeensomeconfusionaround1Q19expectationsfANTMwedonotbelievethequarterlycadencereflectedinconsensusisanydifferentthanwhatANTMhasbeenimplying.InfactwebelieveANTM’scomments2019guidanceisconservativeresultsare

9、likelytobeahead(ashasbeenthecasefthelast10yearswithanaveragebeatof15%).ThecurrentEPSexpectationsfCICNCHUM&UNHalsolargelyreflectmanagement’scommentaryaround1Qearnings.ExcludingtheimpactoftheHIFmatium(unfavableimpactonMLR)

10、partiallyoffsetbythelowerfluactivity(favableimpactonMLR)webelieveourMLRexpectationsfANTMCIleaveenoughroomfsomeupsidefthetwocompanies.Wesee1Q19MLRsfCNCHUMUNHlargelytrackingourexpectations.WealsonotethatthecurrentMLRexpect

11、ationfCIf1Q19isnotlikelycomparabletothecompany’sintegratedmedicalsegmentMLRoutlook.■ExpectationsAreModest.LookingspecificallyattheindividualquartersthelikelymagnitudeofearningsbeatsfMCOsishighestin1Qtapersoffastheyearpro

12、gresses.HoweverourQ1investsentimentsurveysuggestsinvestexpectationsaremodestfMCOswith48%ofinstitutionalinvestsexpectingQ1resultsonaveragetocomeinaheadofconsensus47%expectinginlineresults.Infactexpectationsffavableresults

13、arebelowwheretheywereheadingintotheQ4reptingseason(58%expectedresultstoexceed).■StrongQ1ResultsWouldUndersceOurBeliefthatFundamentalsRemainStrongDespiteOngoingMacroNoise.MCOs(includingANTM)havebeenunderpressureYTDonconce

14、rnsrelatedtoBernieSers’MedicarefAllproposalwithsomeinvestsrecentlyflaggingthattheinclusionof“payfs”providesmecredibilitytothepushfchange.WecontinuetoseeMedicarefAllasunlikelytogoanywhere.15April2019ManagedCare3TableofCon

15、tentsExecutiveSummary4UtilizationMLRTrendExpectationsf1Q19...................................................6CompanybyCompanyExpectationsf1Q19Earnings9Anthem..............................................................

16、.......................................................9Cigna........................................................................................................................9Centene...............................

17、...................................................................................10Humana..................................................................................................................11UnitedHealthG

18、roup...............................................................................................11PricePerfmance&Valuation13IndustryOperatingStatistics16CommercialEnrollment............................................

19、..............................................16CommercialFullyInsured(“Riskbased”)Enrollment16CommercialSelfInsured(“NonRiskASObased”)Enrollment17ManagedMedicaidEnrollment................................................

20、...............................18MedicareAdvantageEnrollment............................................................................18PDPEnrollmentTrends...............................................................

21、..........................20MLRUtilizationTrends...........................................................................................20ConsolidatedMLRTrends20InvestmentIncomeTrends..................................