交運(yùn)行業(yè)2019年度投資策略吹盡狂沙始見金

1、敬請閱讀末頁的重要說明正文目錄一、三條主線中的預(yù)期差...........................................................................................51、市場表現(xiàn)和風(fēng)格切換.....................................................52、選股邏輯：預(yù)期差...........................

2、............................5二、周期：獨(dú)立演繹..................................................................................................91、相關(guān)性和獨(dú)立性.........................................................92、航空客運(yùn)：逆周期的提價能力.

3、............................................92、油運(yùn)：和油價的背離....................................................13三、基建：結(jié)構(gòu)變遷................................................................................................151、從

4、DCF模型說起......................................................152、機(jī)場：流量變現(xiàn)........................................................16三、成長：網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng).................................................................................

5、...............191、網(wǎng)絡(luò)的價值............................................................192、快遞：面臨挑戰(zhàn)的2019........................................................................................193、多式聯(lián)運(yùn)：尋找中國的J.B.Hunt..........

6、................................................................22敬請閱讀末頁的重要說明圖30：交運(yùn)板塊市場表現(xiàn)排行（剔除次新及重組）............................15圖31：深圳機(jī)場人均含稅商業(yè)收入..........................................15圖32：全國港口貨運(yùn)吞吐量.................

7、...............................15圖33：大秦線日均運(yùn)量....................................................16圖34：高速公路貨車流量增速..............................................16圖35：樞紐機(jī)場價值鏈.................................................

8、...16圖36：主要商業(yè)銷售坪效和扣點(diǎn)率..........................................17圖37：機(jī)場免稅估值框架..................................................17圖38：一線機(jī)場免稅扣點(diǎn)率................................................17圖39：五大機(jī)場ROE.................

9、...............................................................................18圖40：主要機(jī)場市值對比..................................................18圖41：網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)的差異....................................................19圖42：全國網(wǎng)上商品

10、零售額................................................20圖43：電商品類滲透率....................................................20圖44：電商件增速測算....................................................20圖45：通達(dá)系單票成本拆分（2018H1）................

11、.....................20圖46：海外快遞市場集中度................................................21圖47：六大上市快遞企業(yè)1317件量復(fù)合增速................................21圖48：主要快遞企業(yè)件量增速（月）........................................21圖49：主要快遞企業(yè)限售解禁（1820

12、）.....................................22圖50：美國多式聯(lián)運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量（億噸）........................................23圖51：美國多式聯(lián)運(yùn)貨運(yùn)量占比............................................23圖52：JB亨特運(yùn)輸服務(wù)40倍漲幅復(fù)牌......................................23圖

13、53：JBHT公鐵多式聯(lián)運(yùn)運(yùn)能優(yōu)勢........................................24圖54：JBHT公鐵多式聯(lián)運(yùn)中心站網(wǎng)絡(luò)布局...................................24圖55：鐵路集裝箱運(yùn)量（20122017）......................................25圖56：各國鐵路集裝箱運(yùn)量占比...........................