有色金屬行業(yè)2019年度投資策略釩錫為攻，金為守

1、證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可（20一、黃金：2019年黃金有望長(zhǎng)牛............................................................................................................................5（一）金價(jià)主導(dǎo)股價(jià)..........................................

2、...................................5（二）近期金價(jià)主邏輯為美元和美國(guó)利率...........................................................5（三）美元：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)好于預(yù)期...................................................................6（四）美元：加息穩(wěn)步、通脹較低、就業(yè)充分....

3、...................................................7（五）黃金：避險(xiǎn)催生配置需求...................................................................8二、銅：基本面良好，宏觀影響銅價(jià)......................................................................

4、...............................................9（一）個(gè)股：受大盤(pán)和銅價(jià)雙重影響...............................................................9（二）宏觀：短期看貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)、長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注美元和美債...................................................9（三）基本面：供給增長(zhǎng)料將收窄...

5、.............................................................10（四）基本面：需求有望平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)................................................................11（五）銅價(jià)：短看貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)、長(zhǎng)看宏觀和基本面......................................................12

6、三、錫：緬甸錫礦減少、基本面支撐錫價(jià)慢牛.....................................................................................................14（一）供給：緬甸錫礦供給下降..................................................................14（二）供給：精錫產(chǎn)量收縮、出口

7、大幅增加........................................................15（三）顯性庫(kù)存充裕、基本面持續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)............................................................15四、釩：2018年上漲2.4倍、基本面對(duì)價(jià)格有支撐......................................................

8、.........................................16（一）環(huán)保導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能壓縮壓縮、供給仍受限........................................................16（二）禁止穿水正在提升釩需求..................................................................17（三）2018年上漲釩價(jià)2.4倍、仍

9、有上漲可能......................................................18五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.......................................................................................................................................................19

10、TOCo“12“hzu目錄證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可（20圖表34廠(chǎng)商庫(kù)存.................................................................................18圖表35釩價(jià)格.................................................................................