外文翻譯--中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備如何管理

1、<p><b>　　中文5057字</b></p><p>　　出處：Liu K. How to Manage China's Foreign Exchange Reserves?[J]. Available at SSRN 1067521, 2007.</p><p>　　畢業(yè)論文外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯</p><p>　　How t

2、o Manage China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves?</p><p>　　Author: Ke Liu</p><p>　　Advisor: Erik Strojer Madsen </p><p>　　Aarhus School of Business</p><p>　　MSc in Finance

3、and International Business</p><p>　　November 2007</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　Financial crisis is not a new term to the world and has been through the financial gl

4、obalization in the past decades. Many developing countries choose to stockpile a large amount of foreign exchange reserves to protect their economy from external shocks. However, given the declining value of the US dolla

5、r, the rapid built-up of reserves also creates a new debate on what amount and which form to hold for emerging economies. This paper attempts to address the two questions for China, the largest r</p><p>　　Ke

6、ywords： foreign exchange, reserves, China, reserve management</p><p>　　Part I Introduction</p><p>　　Foreign exchange reserves, also refer to international reserves, are indispensable financ

7、ial resources of an economic entity. To every open economic region, the amount of reserves held by monetary authority varies dramatically based on an array of vested policies and objectives. The International Monetary

8、 Fund (IMF)identified an economy’s international reserves as “those external assets that are readily available to and controlled by monetary authorities for direct financing of payments</p><p>　　Individua

9、l countries, especially those who have a large volume of international trade, experience a high risk of random shocks to their external balances, resulting from temporary or continuous sudden drops of their foreign excha

10、nge earnings. Therefore, international reserves serve to absorb such undesired crises through financing the payment deficits, which in turn avoid the costs of macroeconomic adjustment . In addition, foreign exchange rese

11、rves can be used to serve external debt or act as t</p><p>　　As the international trade flow increases and global financial integration evolves, the demand for international reserves has grown as well. In 19

12、90, the world aggregate holding of reserves amounts to $919 billion and China’s share merely equals 3.3 percent at that time. Sixteen years later, however, the world’s total holding grows up to $5,038 billion, more than

13、one fifth of which is contributed by China.</p><p>　　Figure 1: China’s recent built-up of reserves</p><p>　　During the past decade, China has accumulated a huge lump sum of foreign exchange rese

14、rves due to its prominent economic development. In late February 2006, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, and at the end of March 2007, this number reaches 1.2 trilli

15、on U.S. dollars. The reserve to GDP ratio is approximately 40 percent at the end of 2006, while the world average level was around 10 percent. One view is that reserves have been acc</p><p>　　Alt

16、hough the strongly export-oriented economic development accounts for part of the upward trend, FDI inflows have been assumed to be responsible for a big portion of the reserves. Despite of capital controls, evidence also

17、 indicates that speculative capital flows into this country through various channels, betting on the appreciation of RMB.</p><p>　　As a large transitional economy, China is in a stage of rapid economic devel

18、opment and restructuring. Large foreign exchange reserves help to maintain the credibility of both the country and its currency, to expand international trade, to attract overseas </p><p>　　investment, to lo

19、wer the cost of financing its institutions in their efforts to enter the international market, to enhance overseas financing capacity and to uphold steady growth as the country develops.</p><p>　　However, s

20、ome economists argue that the recent heavy foreign exchange accumulation, including rapidly increased speculative capital flows, has augmented risks to the country’s financial system, exacerbated inflationary pre

21、ssure, created huge opportunity costs that resulted in large wealth losses with the weakening dollar, intensified pressure for the RMB appreciation and finally increased the complexity of macroeconomic adjustm

22、ent and foreign exchange reserve management.</p><p>　　The recent large increase in international reserves has generated a debate on the optimal level of reserves for emerging countries. However, quantitative

23、 literature on reserves has lagged somewhat behind the policy questions raised by the international financial crisis of the 1990s. The heyday of the reserve adequacy study dates back to the 1960s and the 1970s with a maj

24、or pitfall of difficulties in quantifying determinants. Policy makers have often used rules of thumb, such as maintai</p><p>　　Dooley and others (2004) assert that reserves buildup in Asia

25、 is the unintended consequence of policies that maintain large current account surpluses. Li (2006) refutes that China’s foreign exchange reserves are not excessive because it needs sufficient reserves to

26、 maintain the stability of its currency and to maintain the confidence of international investors. He also argues that China’s foreign exchange reserves have been rewarded by sufficient returns. Franke</p>

27、<p>　　Therefore, the issue about what is the optimal size, or in other term, the adequate level of China’s foreign exchange reserves needs to be addressed. Currently, most relevant research either focuses on gener

28、al discussions of determinants of the demand for foreign exchange reserves or empirically analyzes countries’ holding compositions. However, little work pays attention to a thorough analysis of foreign exchang

29、e reserves management with a Chinese feature. Furthermore, as the</p><p>　　This paper examines the claim that the foreign exchange reserves of China are not only sufficient but also exceed its demand

30、 for liquidity and other major economic considerations. With this confirmation, the latter phase centers on how to adjust the current level to the adequate level estimated.</p><p>　　Part II Literature Revi

31、ew</p><p>　　Most quantitative literature on international reserve holdings is based on theories developed in the 1960s, when the world adhered to the Bretton Woods System and the global capital flows were re

32、latively small. The framework of analysis on reserve adequacy and optimality could be classified by the methodologies used into two categorizes: ratios as tools of analysis and regression analysis. The following gives a

33、chronological retrospect of previous study.</p><p>　　2.1 Ratio Analysis</p><p>　　Reserve to import ratio</p><p>　　The most widely used ratio method was the ratio of reserve to impo

34、rt first generalized by Triffin (1947, 1960). It is argued that the demand for reserves should move in line with the trend in international trade since receipts and payments were observed to be volatile. He concludes tha

35、t major countries should maintain a constant reserve to import ratio ranging from 20 percent as a minimum to 40 percent maximally. However, this method was born with almost equal number of critics and advocators.</p

36、><p>　　The IMF started to measure the adequacy of reserves in the 1950s by the ratio of reserve to import. European Central Bank (2006) regards four months’ import coverage as the “rule of thumb”

37、. Since the major function of foreign exchange reserves is protecting a country from the uncertainty of international trade, the ratio of reserve to import has almost been included in all analysis on this subject.

38、</p><p>　　Reserve to domestic money supply</p><p>　　Because enough stockpiles of international reserves would substantially improve the credibility of a country’s currency, the ratio of reserve

39、to domestic money indicates the potential of capital flight from domestic currency. Machlup (1966) was the first one who managed to use this ratio, although he finally obtained a contradictory conclusion that the demand

40、for reserves is independent of any identifiable variable. The procedure of the functioning of reserve holding is nevertheless sound while </p><p>　　a regression equation on 55 countries, and the coefficient

41、of domestic money supply was statistically significant, especially for less developed countries.</p><p>　　Furthermore, Frenkel and Johnson (1976) expatiate that international reserves will increase if the

42、 demand for money exceed supply and vice versa. In that sense, international reserves are a residual. Based on this view, Frenkel (1978) suggests combine the demand for international reserves theory and the mon

43、etary approach to the balance of payments, followed by an attempted analysis by Lau (1980). Interestingly, Edwards (1984) empirically explores the relationship between </p><p>　　Reserve to short-t

44、erm debt ratio</p><p>　　Brown (1964) gives an analysis of the reserve to net external balance ratio on the ground that reserves function as a cushion against future balance of payments deficits. It is assume

45、d that this ratio reflects an economy’s financial ability to serve its existing short-term external debts , especially in times of a sudden stop in short-term external debt flows. Greenspan and Guidotti (1990) suggest t

46、hat developing countries, with limited access to international capital market, should at least co</p><p>　　Opportunity Cost of Capital</p><p>　　The opportunity cost of holding international rese

47、rves plays a central role in models of optimal demand for foreign exchange reserves. Heller (1966) first introduces a cost-benefit perspective to solve the issue of adequacy of international reserves by means of econom

48、etric analysis. The theoretical definition of cost refers to the opportunity cost of holding reserves and the benefit derives from the avoidance of macro-adjustments for external deficits.</p><p>　　

49、The opportunity cost of holdings, practically proxied by government bond yield , the domestic discount rate , or the yield on domestic securities , reduces a country’s national income which can be used for domesti

50、c consumption and investment. Therefore, it is expected to be negatively related to reserve demand. However, these farfetched proxies have failed to indicate a significant cost effect since none of them is accurately

51、consistent with the theoretical definition. In addition, bec</p><p>　　Heller’s model can be used to analyze the effects of adjustment to an external disequilibrium in a precise way. However, the

52、 model is far from perfect once it deals with the realistic world. First of all, evidence shows that the difference of demand for reserves between developed countries and developing countries are against the ass

53、umption made by Heller (1966) and Hamada and Ueda (1977) that the opportunity cost is constant over time and across countries. In addition, it </p><p>　　Agarwal (1970s) modifies Heller’s model on the ground

54、that the opportunity cost of reserve holdings is the value created by the foreign currency held by the monetary authority instead of the imported productive goods. Specifically, central banks are accumulating foreign exc

55、hange reserves at the expense of investment and current consumption. However, this model is not without pitfalls, either. It neglected the function of foreign exchange reserves as a source of international trade and fore

56、ign de</p><p>　　2.2 Regression Analysis </p><p>　　The use of regressions as a technique to analyze reserve demand function also initiated back from the 1960s. The theoretical assump

57、tion of using regression equation to construct the relationship specified follows the empirical study on various individual determinants. The observed levels of reserve holdings reflect the behaviors of differ

58、ent countries as demanders of reserves, although not all countries are expected to fit the “l(fā)ong-term” demand function at each </p><p>　　Courchene and Youssef (1967) make use of three tradi

59、tional variables: imports, money supply levels, and long-term interest rates to estimate the reserve holdings of 9 countries. Notably, the variable of money supply was proposed by Johnson (1958), whose major contributi

60、on was the theoretical foundation of the relationship between the domestic money supply and foreign payments imbalances. This theory of monetary approach to the balance of payments indicates that, given domesti

61、</p><p>　　Edwards (1983) conducts an empirical research by taking into account the element of exchange rate adjustment. His report indicates that not all less-developed countries behave in the same way with

62、respect to their demand for international reserves. In particular, the demands are higher by countries that have maintained a fixed exchange rate for a long period than those who occasionally devalued their currencies to

63、 correct payments imbalances. He suggests that the reserve holding decisions and ex</p><p>　　Ford and Huang (1993) investigate the demand for foreign exchange reserves of a typical planned economy, China, us

64、ing an error correction model. With the series of data from 1956 to 1989, they conclude that China had maintained the amount of reserve on the long-run level due to its prudential foreign reserve policy and monetary dise

65、quilibrium had significant short-run influence on reserve holdings, reflecting the country’s special economic structure.</p><p>　　While Asian central banks after the financial crisis of 1997-98 bec

66、ame more forethoughtful of their reserve holdings, many works found evidence of a change in the behavior of parameters. Gosselin and Parent (2005) claim a positive structural break in the demand for international reserv

67、es, indicating that the actual level of reserves accumulated in the post-crisis period was in excess relative to their estimated optimal level. They also predict a slowdown in the rate of accumulation be</p><p

68、>　　Following Grubel (1971), taste preferences and large numbers of structural characteristics of economies which determine the demand for reserves of individual countries cannot be measured adequately and inc

69、orporated in cross-section studies. In time series analysis involving one country alone, it is reasonable to assume that tastes and structural characteristics change only slow through time so that observed stat

70、istical relationships among variables are persistent and reflect r</p><p>　　Reference </p><p>　　[1] James Tobin, 1969, “A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory”, Journal of Money, Cred

71、it and Banking, Vol.1, No.1, pp.15-29 </p><p>　　[2] Harry G. Johnson, 1977, “The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory </p><p>　　and Policy: Explanation and Policy Implications”, Econo

72、mica, New Series, Vol. 44, </p><p>　　No. 175, pp. 217-229.</p><p>　　[3] International Relations Committee Task Force, 2006, “The Accumulation of Foreign Reserves”, European Central Bank, Occasio

73、nal Paper Series, No.43.</p><p>　　中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備如何管理？</p><p><b>　　作者：劉珂</b></p><p>　　指導(dǎo)教師：埃里克 史喬克 馬德森</p><p><b>　　奧胡斯商業(yè)學(xué)校</b></p><p>　　金融和

74、國(guó)際商務(wù)碩士 </p><p><b>　　2007年11月</b></p><p>　　【內(nèi)容摘要】：金融危機(jī)對(duì)于世界來(lái)說(shuō)已不是一個(gè)新名詞。經(jīng)過(guò)過(guò)去幾十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化，許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家為了保護(hù)外來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊，選擇了儲(chǔ)存大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備。然而，由于美元貶值，迅速增長(zhǎng)的儲(chǔ)備還引發(fā)了一個(gè)關(guān)于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體應(yīng)該持有多少數(shù)量的外匯儲(chǔ)備和采取何種方法持有的爭(zhēng)論。本文試圖解決自2006年

75、以來(lái)的最大儲(chǔ)備持有者，也就是中國(guó)的兩個(gè)問(wèn)題。通過(guò)對(duì)42個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，得出了一系列結(jié)論，包括一個(gè)重要的確認(rèn)，中國(guó)持有的儲(chǔ)備超過(guò)估計(jì)的適當(dāng)水平。本文將事實(shí)論證和理論解釋相結(jié)合，對(duì)于如何管理中國(guó)在長(zhǎng)期和短期的外匯儲(chǔ)備提供了一系列解決問(wèn)題的方案。為了從根本上放緩?fù)鈪R儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)率和減少儲(chǔ)備總額，需要在轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的同時(shí)，考慮到持有儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本，積極的儲(chǔ)備管理將是可取的。</p><p>　　【關(guān)鍵詞】：外匯，儲(chǔ)

76、備，中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備管理</p><p><b>　　正文</b></p><p><b>　　第一章 介紹</b></p><p>　　外匯儲(chǔ)備，也稱(chēng)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備，是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體中不可或缺的財(cái)政資源。每一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放區(qū)的貨幣當(dāng)局所持有的儲(chǔ)備量都會(huì)基于既得利益的政策和目標(biāo)而產(chǎn)生顯著差異。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）將其定義為“貨幣當(dāng)局持有

77、的、能隨時(shí)用于干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)收支失衡的直接融資，貨幣交換，或用作其他用途的對(duì)外資產(chǎn)。 “常用的形式包括貨幣當(dāng)局的貨幣體系中持有的可兌換外國(guó)貨幣，存款，有價(jià)證券或金融衍生工具，貨幣性黃金，特別提款權(quán)（SDRS）和IMF的普通提款權(quán)?！?lt;/p><p>　　個(gè)別國(guó)家，特別是那些有大量的國(guó)際貿(mào)易的國(guó)家，其外債余額經(jīng)歷任意一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的沖擊，可能導(dǎo)致其外匯收入臨時(shí)或連續(xù)的突然下降。因此，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備為承受意外危機(jī),通過(guò)融資支付赤

78、字，而這反過(guò)來(lái)又避免宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整的成本的產(chǎn)生。此外，外匯儲(chǔ)備可以用來(lái)償還外債，或充當(dāng)國(guó)際借貸的抵押品。對(duì)于那些實(shí)行固定匯率政策的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備在支持本國(guó)貨幣和加強(qiáng)國(guó)家的信譽(yù)方面，也起著重要作用。</p><p>　　隨著國(guó)際貿(mào)易的增加和全球金融一體化的發(fā)展，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的需求也出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)。在1990年，世界總持有儲(chǔ)備金額919億美元，中國(guó)的份額只相當(dāng)于當(dāng)時(shí)的3.3％。然而，16年后，世界總儲(chǔ)備金額增長(zhǎng)到5,038

79、億美元，其中中國(guó)貢獻(xiàn)的部分超過(guò)五分之一。</p><p>　　紅線：中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備總額 藍(lán)線：中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備總額占世界儲(chǔ)備總額的比例</p><p>　　圖一： 近年來(lái)中國(guó)的外匯增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì) </p><p>　　在過(guò)去的十年中，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，中國(guó)已經(jīng)積累了一筆巨額的外匯儲(chǔ)備。在2006年2月下旬，中國(guó)超過(guò)日本成為世界上最大的外匯儲(chǔ)備持有者，并在2007年3月底，這一數(shù)字

80、達(dá)到1.2萬(wàn)億美元。在2006年年末，儲(chǔ)備占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例達(dá)到約40％，而世界平均水平是在10％左右。一種觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，儲(chǔ)備已累積到成為平衡國(guó)際收支危機(jī)的保險(xiǎn)，這后來(lái)被認(rèn)為1997-98東南亞危機(jī)后更高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　雖然較強(qiáng)的出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展占上升趨勢(shì)的一部分，外國(guó)直接投資流入量已被認(rèn)為負(fù)責(zé)了很大一部分儲(chǔ)備。盡管有資本管制，證據(jù)仍然顯示，通過(guò)各種渠道進(jìn)入這個(gè)國(guó)家的投機(jī)性資本流動(dòng)，押注人民幣升值。

81、</p><p>　　作為一個(gè)大型的轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國(guó)正處在經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整階段。巨額的外匯儲(chǔ)備，有助于維護(hù)雙方國(guó)家的信譽(yù)和其貨幣的穩(wěn)定，擴(kuò)大國(guó)際貿(mào)易，吸引海外投資，以降低融資成本，努力進(jìn)入國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)，以加強(qiáng)海外融資能力和保持穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)，促進(jìn)國(guó)家發(fā)展。</p><p>　　然而，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，近期外匯積累迅速增加，包括投機(jī)性資本流動(dòng)，擴(kuò)大了中國(guó)金融體系面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，加劇了通貨膨脹的

82、壓力，創(chuàng)造了巨大的機(jī)會(huì)成本，導(dǎo)致大量財(cái)富損失，美元的疲軟，加劇了人民幣升值壓力，并最終增加了宏觀調(diào)控的復(fù)雜性和外匯儲(chǔ)備管理。</p><p>　　最近大量增加國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的新興國(guó)家，產(chǎn)生了最優(yōu)儲(chǔ)備水平的辯論。然而，定量?jī)?chǔ)備研究已經(jīng)有些滯后，自20世紀(jì)90年代的國(guó)際金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，政策背后的問(wèn)題已漸漸浮現(xiàn)出來(lái)。鼎盛時(shí)期關(guān)于儲(chǔ)備充足的研究可以追溯到20世紀(jì)60年代和70年代。主要缺陷是存在一個(gè)難以定量分析因素。政策制訂者經(jīng)

83、常使用拇指規(guī)則，如維持儲(chǔ)量相當(dāng)于季度進(jìn)口或“格林斯潘-圭多惕規(guī)則”的總的短期外債的全覆蓋。但這不是遠(yuǎn)東國(guó)家在金融全球化下有更多的金融資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債的理由。</p><p>　　杜利等人（2004）斷言，在亞洲的儲(chǔ)備積累，保持巨額的經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)盈余是政策意想不到的后果。李（2006）駁斥，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備并不過(guò)分，因?yàn)樗枰銐虻膬?chǔ)備以維持本國(guó)貨幣的穩(wěn)定和維持國(guó)際投資者的信心。他還認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備已獲得足夠的回報(bào)。弗蘭克

84、爾（2004）強(qiáng)調(diào)了巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本，并得出結(jié)論，中國(guó)想必已經(jīng)給予外國(guó)投資者比其外匯儲(chǔ)備收益更高的對(duì)內(nèi)投資回報(bào)。夏（2006）估計(jì)充足的的外匯儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)該是700億美元。</p><p>　　因此，最佳規(guī)模的問(wèn)題，或者換一種說(shuō)法，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備的適當(dāng)水平需要加以解決。目前，最相關(guān)的研究不是側(cè)重于一般討論外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求因素，就是實(shí)證分析國(guó)家控股組成。然而，很少有人注重深入分析具有中國(guó)特色的外匯儲(chǔ)備管理。此外，隨著

85、美元預(yù)期貶值，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，由于其龐大的經(jīng)常帳戶(hù)赤字，證據(jù)和理論都表明外匯儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)當(dāng)多樣化，而不是依賴(lài)單一的美元結(jié)構(gòu)。因此，中國(guó)的外國(guó)資產(chǎn)如何分配是第二個(gè)要回答的問(wèn)題。</p><p>　　本文研究出的觀點(diǎn)是，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備不僅足夠，而且超過(guò)其流動(dòng)資金和其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的需求。由此確認(rèn)，后一階段的重心是，如何將目前的水平調(diào)整到合理水平。</p><p><b>　　第二章 文獻(xiàn)綜述

86、</b></p><p>　　大多數(shù)關(guān)于國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的定量分析是在20世紀(jì)60年代的理論基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展的，當(dāng)時(shí)世界遵循著布雷頓森林體系并且全球資本流動(dòng)相對(duì)較小。儲(chǔ)備充足和最優(yōu)的分析框架可根據(jù)使用方法分為2種類(lèi)別：比率分析和回歸分析。下面按時(shí)間順序回顧以往的研究。</p><p><b>　　2.1比率分析</b></p><p>　　2.1

87、.1儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率</p><p>　　使用最廣泛的方法是特里芬（1947年，1960年）提出的廣義的外匯儲(chǔ)備與進(jìn)口的比率。該理論認(rèn)為，儲(chǔ)備需求應(yīng)符合國(guó)際貿(mào)易收支波動(dòng)的趨勢(shì)。他得出結(jié)論，他認(rèn)為，各國(guó)應(yīng)保持恒定的儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率，20%為最低，40%為最大限度。</p><p>　　然而，這種方法伴隨著幾乎相等數(shù)量的批評(píng)者和倡導(dǎo)者。馬克盧普（1966年）駁斥以假定剛性?xún)?chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率為理論基礎(chǔ)，因?yàn)樗?/p>

88、缺乏證據(jù)和理論，為什么這樣的比例應(yīng)保持不變，不考慮各個(gè)國(guó)家的實(shí)際情況和時(shí)間因素。由于他的辯護(hù)，其他三個(gè)比率，儲(chǔ)備與損失最大的年度儲(chǔ)備的比率，儲(chǔ)備與國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣和準(zhǔn)貨幣的比率，儲(chǔ)備與中央銀行負(fù)債的比率，被用來(lái)解釋14個(gè)工業(yè)化國(guó)家從1949年到1965年的行為。他說(shuō)，“純粹的經(jīng)濟(jì)理由，持有儲(chǔ)備的最終目的是使用?！比欢?，這種單方面的假設(shè)也忽略了預(yù)防性質(zhì)的儲(chǔ)備，尤其是在固定匯率制度下的。同樣，奧利韋拉（1969）理論上認(rèn)為，預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)備需求應(yīng)反映每年

89、進(jìn)口的差異變化，這意味著一個(gè)恒定的儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率，導(dǎo)致了目前和未來(lái)的需求顯著高估。</p><p>　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織以?xún)?chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率來(lái)衡量?jī)?chǔ)備是否充足，在20世紀(jì)50年代。歐洲中央銀行（2006）把4個(gè)月的進(jìn)口覆蓋率作為“拇指規(guī)則”。由于外匯儲(chǔ)備的主要功能是保護(hù)一個(gè)國(guó)家從國(guó)際貿(mào)易的不確定性，儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)口比率幾乎已被包括在所有關(guān)于這個(gè)問(wèn)題的分析。</p><p>　　2.1.2儲(chǔ)備與國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)

90、量的比率</p><p>　　由于足夠的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備將大大提高一個(gè)國(guó)家的貨幣的信譽(yù)，儲(chǔ)備與國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣的比率表明潛在的國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣的資本外逃。馬克盧普（1966）是第一個(gè)使用這個(gè)比例的人，雖然他最終得出了矛盾的結(jié)論，對(duì)儲(chǔ)備的需求獨(dú)立于任何可識(shí)別變量。但持有儲(chǔ)備的運(yùn)作程序是健全的，隨著時(shí)間的變動(dòng)而變得不穩(wěn)定。這一理論被弗倫克爾（1971）證明了，他對(duì)55個(gè)國(guó)家進(jìn)行了回歸方程的研究，國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)系數(shù)具有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義，尤其是對(duì)不發(fā)達(dá)

91、國(guó)家。</p><p>　　此外，弗倫克爾和約翰遜（1976）闡述了如果貨幣需求超過(guò)供給，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備將增加，反之亦然。從這個(gè)意義上講，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備將有余額?；谶@一觀點(diǎn)，在劉（1980）試圖分析之后，弗倫克爾（1978）建議將國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備需求理論和國(guó)際收支的貨幣分析法相結(jié)合。有趣的是，愛(ài)德華茲（1984）實(shí)證探討使用23個(gè)固定匯率的發(fā)展中國(guó)家儲(chǔ)備的流動(dòng)和國(guó)內(nèi)信貸創(chuàng)造之間的關(guān)系，并得出結(jié)論認(rèn)為，國(guó)內(nèi)信貸不能被視為完全外源但部

92、分證據(jù)。</p><p>　　2.1.3儲(chǔ)備與短期負(fù)債比率</p><p>　　布朗（1964年）提出了一個(gè)儲(chǔ)備研究，對(duì)外凈資產(chǎn)負(fù)債比率起到平衡國(guó)際收支逆差的作用。據(jù)推測(cè)，這一比率反映存在的短期外債的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融服務(wù)能力，尤其是突然停止流動(dòng)的短期外債。格林斯潘和吉多蒂（1990）表明，發(fā)展中國(guó)家，有限的進(jìn)入國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)，至少應(yīng)覆蓋所有短期債務(wù)。資本的機(jī)會(huì)成本</p><p&

93、gt;　　國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本在最優(yōu)外匯儲(chǔ)備需求模型中發(fā)揮核心作用。海勒（1966）初次介紹了從成本-效益的角度，通過(guò)計(jì)量分析手段來(lái)解決國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備充足的問(wèn)題。成本理論的定義，是指持有儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本，有利于避免因宏觀調(diào)控導(dǎo)致的對(duì)外貿(mào)易赤字。</p><p>　　持有儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本，實(shí)際上是政府債券收益率，國(guó)內(nèi)的貼現(xiàn)率，或國(guó)內(nèi)證券的收益率代理的，降低一個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)民收入可以用于國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)和投資。因此，預(yù)計(jì)與儲(chǔ)備需求負(fù)相關(guān)。然

94、而，這些牽強(qiáng)的代理沒(méi)有顯著的表明成本的影響，因?yàn)樗麄儧](méi)有準(zhǔn)確地符合理論的定義。此外，由于外匯儲(chǔ)備投資到海外，國(guó)內(nèi)的貼現(xiàn)率或?qū)?guó)內(nèi)證券的收益率不能將成本效益標(biāo)準(zhǔn)解釋得令人滿(mǎn)意。名義收益率并不代表真正的回報(bào)，因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎涀兓艽?，尤其是在發(fā)展中國(guó)家。宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整，如緊縮性的財(cái)政/貨幣政策和匯率貶值，導(dǎo)致總收入和福利損失。儲(chǔ)備投資收益，雖然由于政策和限制比較少，往往在實(shí)證研究中被忽略。</p><p>　　海勒的模型可

95、以用來(lái)準(zhǔn)確地分析調(diào)整外部不平衡的影響。然而，該模型一旦與現(xiàn)實(shí)世界聯(lián)系起來(lái)，是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠完善的。首先，所有證據(jù)表明，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家之間的儲(chǔ)備需求的差異，是對(duì)海勒（1966年）、哈馬達(dá)和上田（1977）的機(jī)會(huì)成本在不同的時(shí)間和國(guó)家之間是恒定的理論的反駁。此外，它沒(méi)有考慮到儲(chǔ)備的回報(bào)，即使數(shù)額通常低于成本。顯然，國(guó)際貿(mào)易不平衡的可能性假設(shè)是不真實(shí)的，因?yàn)槿绻麘?yīng)用到一個(gè)特定的國(guó)家，有可能產(chǎn)生一個(gè)重大的偏差。</p><p

96、>　　阿加瓦爾（1970）在修改海勒的基礎(chǔ)上，持有儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本是貨幣當(dāng)局持有的外幣所創(chuàng)造的價(jià)值而不是進(jìn)口貨物，而不是模式。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，中央銀行積累外匯儲(chǔ)備用于投資和當(dāng)前消費(fèi)開(kāi)支。然而，這種模式是不是沒(méi)有缺陷，它忽視了外匯儲(chǔ)備作為國(guó)際貿(mào)易和外債支付來(lái)源的功能，以及不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的選擇。</p><p><b>　　2.2回歸分析</b></p><p>　　以回歸

97、分析作為分析儲(chǔ)備需求函數(shù)的方法要追溯到20世紀(jì)60年代。關(guān)于使用回歸方程來(lái)構(gòu)造指定關(guān)系的理論假設(shè)，實(shí)證研究各個(gè)不同的因素。觀察儲(chǔ)備持有的水平，反映了不同國(guó)家作為儲(chǔ)備需求者的行為，雖然并非所有國(guó)家都將符合“長(zhǎng)期”需求函數(shù)在每一點(diǎn)的時(shí)間。在固定匯率下的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備需求的研究表明，經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的變化和對(duì)外貿(mào)易的相對(duì)大小是其中的主要解釋變量。作為一個(gè)緩沖區(qū)適應(yīng)外部交易中的股票波動(dòng)，所需的儲(chǔ)備量預(yù)計(jì)將與外部收益凈額的變化成正比。</p>&

98、lt;p>　　庫(kù)爾辛和尤斯夫（1967）使用三個(gè)傳統(tǒng)的變量：進(jìn)口，貨幣供應(yīng)量的水平，長(zhǎng)期利率來(lái)估計(jì)持有儲(chǔ)備的9個(gè)國(guó)家。貨幣供應(yīng)量的變量由約翰遜（1958年）提出，其主要貢獻(xiàn)是提供了國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)量和對(duì)外支付不平衡之間的關(guān)系的理論基礎(chǔ)。這一理論的國(guó)際收支的貨幣分析法指出，隨著國(guó)內(nèi)信貸和國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備增加，使得貨幣需求過(guò)度增加和供給過(guò)度減少。長(zhǎng)期利率是用來(lái)作為代理的機(jī)會(huì)成本的。在20世紀(jì)70年代，一個(gè)獨(dú)立的分析方法用來(lái)區(qū)分發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與發(fā)展中國(guó)家

99、。弗蘭克爾（1974年）估計(jì)，國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備需求函數(shù)分為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和欠發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家兩種情況，表明兩組的行為參數(shù)有顯著不同。他終于給出了一個(gè)由三個(gè)相關(guān)因素說(shuō)明的儲(chǔ)備需求函數(shù)的估計(jì)，包括進(jìn)口的平均消費(fèi)傾向，進(jìn)口量的變化程度和負(fù)相關(guān)輸入。儲(chǔ)備的機(jī)會(huì)成本，盡管由于測(cè)量問(wèn)題這個(gè)變量整體預(yù)測(cè)能力差。</p><p>　　愛(ài)德華茲(1983)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究中,考慮了匯率元素的調(diào)整。他的報(bào)告指出，并非所有欠發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備需求的行為都采取同