外文翻譯---中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的表現(xiàn)是對(duì)東亞制成品出口的威脅嗎？

1、<p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯原文</p><p>　　外文題目：China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports? </p><p>　　出 處： World Development, Sep2004, Vol

2、. 32 Issue 9 </p><p>　　作 者： Sanjaya Lall and Manuel Albaladejo </p><p><b>　　原 文：</b></p><p>　　China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East

3、 Asian Manufactured Exports?</p><p>　　There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat

4、 is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports w

5、ill damage its neighbors. We examine the dimensions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking co</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　Concern about China’s competitive threat is widespr

6、ead (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpow

7、er, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 Chin

8、a is most</p><p>　　Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTO accession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with

9、it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manuf

10、actured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer </p><p>　　It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will

11、 fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors

12、 can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they</p><p>　　This paper does not tr

13、y to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian

14、exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990

15、s predate China’s WTO accession, we do</p><p>　　Background on Chinese export performance</p><p>　　Chinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the wo

16、rld, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted fo

17、r 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured </p><p>　　This export s

18、urge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of ch

19、eap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly

20、. China is investing heavily in technology and </p><p>　　WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use industrial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in

21、textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce fa

22、ster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002). </p><p>　　Market share changes in major developed country markets</p><p>　　We analyze ma

23、rket shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US (

24、$49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this th

25、e rest of East Asia is larger than any major OE</p><p>　　The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table

26、 shows the following:</p><p>　　Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea

27、 loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers

28、gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others </p><p>　　Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, wit

29、h a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has a large gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while

30、 Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer los</p><p>　　Medium tec

31、hnology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology expo

32、rts: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with

33、Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. </p><p>　　Conclusions</p><p>　　China’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have

34、been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex. For a start, the r

35、ise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities</p><p>　　There are two main drivers of

36、regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented

37、production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones

38、 that use imported inputs for </p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的表現(xiàn)：是對(duì)東亞制成品出口的威脅嗎？</p><p>　　越來(lái)越多的東南亞和東亞地區(qū)關(guān)注中國(guó)出口的迅速增長(zhǎng)所帶來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅，中國(guó)加入WTO后，更加劇了這種情況。這種威脅并不局限于勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品，而是跨越整

39、個(gè)技術(shù)和技能范圍的產(chǎn)品，同時(shí)，中國(guó)正在迅速提高其在東南亞和東亞的進(jìn)口，目前尚不清楚其是否其蓬勃發(fā)展的出口將是否損害其鄰國(guó)的利益，本文研究了中國(guó)20世紀(jì)90年代中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅的大小，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力表現(xiàn)的基準(zhǔn)是技術(shù)和市場(chǎng)份額，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)份額的損失迄今為止主要在低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品，日本是其最脆弱的市場(chǎng)。我們分析了市場(chǎng)份額的變化，直接或間接地突出了產(chǎn)品集群的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅。區(qū)域內(nèi)貿(mào)易的研究表明，中國(guó)和其鄰國(guó)同步提高了高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口，參與國(guó)際生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的性質(zhì)

40、導(dǎo)致的是互補(bǔ)性，而不是對(duì)抗。因此，在直接貿(mào)易條件下，中國(guó)在出口增長(zhǎng)方面是其鄰國(guó)的領(lǐng)頭人，但是，這將改變中國(guó)價(jià)值鏈的移動(dòng)，帶動(dòng)?xùn)|亞出口的迅速增長(zhǎng)，</p><p><b>　　引言</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅論的擔(dān)心是普遍存在的，（像發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中的美國(guó)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的墨西哥等）作為東亞和南亞最大的出口國(guó)，中國(guó)的新興出口憑借廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力，大量的人力技術(shù)存量，

41、巨大的和多元化的工業(yè)部門，吸引外國(guó)投資，以及優(yōu)惠的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，如今，加入WTO后，中國(guó)更加自由的進(jìn)入國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，導(dǎo)致了出口損失末日的嚴(yán)重觀點(diǎn)。中國(guó)依靠低工資的出口優(yōu)勢(shì)造成了對(duì)鄰國(guó)的最大威脅。中國(guó)的出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)以后，更多的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體（新加坡，香港，南韓和臺(tái)灣）也會(huì)擔(dān)憂其強(qiáng)大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，當(dāng)前其低端工業(yè)制成的漏洞將很快由其他復(fù)雜生產(chǎn)、設(shè)計(jì)和發(fā)展的產(chǎn)品以及相關(guān)的服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)所填充。各個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)也受到中國(guó)的威脅，但目前為止，主要關(guān)注的還是在出口方面。

42、</p><p>　　弱化這種威脅論的是中國(guó)政府的承諾(加入WTO只是區(qū)域貿(mào)易自由化的若干舉措之一)，和出口到世界各地的潛在合作。中國(guó)與東亞地區(qū)的貿(mào)易正在蓬勃發(fā)展，在這些地區(qū)進(jìn)口其不具備自然資源的速度在快速增長(zhǎng)。工業(yè)制成品的進(jìn)口也在上升，發(fā)達(dá)的鄰國(guó)向其銷售消費(fèi)制成品和生產(chǎn)制成品，并利用其作為向第三國(guó)產(chǎn)品出口的加工基地。多國(guó)公司（跨國(guó)公司），現(xiàn)在占到中國(guó)出口的一半（目前主要是高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口，UNCTAD,2002

43、）,不斷融入中國(guó)生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的方方面面，（用'分裂'和'分割'是用來(lái)描述這種現(xiàn)象）,更好地促進(jìn)了與其他區(qū)域企業(yè)之間的貿(mào)易。中國(guó)的國(guó)有企業(yè)有可能專業(yè)化同業(yè)生產(chǎn)，以此提高同業(yè)差異化產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易。與其擔(dān)心在其他地區(qū)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，這種整合反而會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)以配合整個(gè)區(qū)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，而不是替代其鄰國(guó)的出口。</p><p>　　但是，中國(guó)和各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)體的互補(bǔ)性是否能完全抵消其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅，這是難以估計(jì)的。動(dòng)態(tài)

44、性和復(fù)雜性的相互作用使其無(wú)法量化這個(gè)結(jié)果，我們甚至可以預(yù)知大方向。這里的基本問(wèn)題是，中國(guó)高工資的鄰國(guó)是否帶來(lái)更先進(jìn)的技術(shù)活動(dòng)，而且能夠迅地速繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大出口額。如果能，那么可以繼續(xù)出口引致的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，否則他們將受到出口減速和/或在對(duì)初級(jí)產(chǎn)品或工業(yè)制成品出口增長(zhǎng)緩慢的部分進(jìn)行專業(yè)化轉(zhuǎn)變。換言之，產(chǎn)出將取決于技術(shù)和能力，中國(guó)和其他地區(qū)企業(yè)的相對(duì)增長(zhǎng)，前者優(yōu)勢(shì)有工資較低，規(guī)模效益較大，產(chǎn)業(yè)深度更廣，技術(shù)技能集群更大，以及一個(gè)積極的政府。然而，東亞

45、國(guó)家在這些因素方面的差異很大，(Lall, 2001),他們面對(duì)著不同種類和密集度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅。威脅的性質(zhì)更多地體現(xiàn)在產(chǎn)品組織和營(yíng)銷系統(tǒng)，獨(dú)立的當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)可能比一體化系統(tǒng)中遍布不同國(guó)家的相同跨國(guó)公司分支機(jī)構(gòu)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加直接。</p><p>　　本文并不試圖衡量中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅或其影響力，而是衡量上世紀(jì)90年代由技術(shù)和目的評(píng)估找出相關(guān)產(chǎn)品出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)威脅最激烈的地方。我們專注于東亞的主要出口國(guó)和第三市場(chǎng)的出口，我們還分析了中

46、國(guó)和東亞地區(qū)之間的互補(bǔ)性，特別是在電子產(chǎn)品方面，該地區(qū)是最大的出口方，而且跨國(guó)公司系統(tǒng)占主導(dǎo)地位。早在中國(guó)未進(jìn)入WTO的90年代，我們沒(méi)有阻止其進(jìn)入的影響力，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力趨勢(shì)的研究表明其對(duì)區(qū)域自由化增長(zhǎng)引起的未來(lái)貿(mào)易變革是有影響的。</p><p>　　中國(guó)出口結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn)的背景</p><p>　　中國(guó)工業(yè)制成品年出口增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)1990-2000的16.9%，超出世界平均水平的6.4%,超過(guò)其余東

47、亞發(fā)展中國(guó)家的10.3%，近幾年中國(guó)的國(guó)際工業(yè)制成品的份額從1.7%上升到4.4%，并且在迅速增長(zhǎng)，因此，到2002年中國(guó)占世界商品出口的5.1％; 是第五大出口國(guó)（僅次于美國(guó)，德國(guó)，日本和法國(guó)，并領(lǐng)先于英國(guó)），中國(guó)在發(fā)展中國(guó)家的工業(yè)制成品出口份額從20世紀(jì)90年代的11％上升到20％，東亞地區(qū)除中國(guó)以外，從18.7％上升到41.8％。中國(guó)出口的增長(zhǎng)跨越了整個(gè)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域，在復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品以及目前對(duì)其余東亞國(guó)家的出口增長(zhǎng)起主導(dǎo)作用的產(chǎn)品范圍內(nèi)最具

48、影響。</p><p>　　出口激增可能需要一段時(shí)間來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)，中國(guó)的“閑置能力”導(dǎo)致人均資本出口額仍舊相對(duì)較小，工資比主要鄰國(guó)要低，廉價(jià)的規(guī)范化的勞動(dòng)量?jī)?chǔ)存較大(雖然它們拉動(dòng)了出口，但是帶來(lái)了建立內(nèi)部聯(lián)動(dòng)機(jī)制的成本)，最重要的是，這種優(yōu)勢(shì)不是靜態(tài)的（限于廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力），是迅速升級(jí)的，中國(guó)正在加大技術(shù)和先進(jìn)的技能的投資;例如，各年齡段的專業(yè)教育比例從1997年的9%上升到2000年的13%(UNESCO website

49、). 中國(guó)利用其巨大的規(guī)模產(chǎn)出增加市場(chǎng)占有量，其資本密集型產(chǎn)品的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力超出了許多鄰近國(guó)家，利用其多元化的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，以加深本國(guó)容量，發(fā)展原產(chǎn)地出口；外國(guó)直接投資以顯著的速度，利用其市場(chǎng)吸引力減少投資者，以提高本國(guó)的溢出效應(yīng)和聯(lián)動(dòng)機(jī)制，直到現(xiàn)在，已經(jīng)能夠以這種形式采取必要措施，但不久將在世貿(mào)組織規(guī)則下被禁止。</p><p>　　加入世界貿(mào)易組織可能會(huì)制約中國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的運(yùn)用能力(Nolan, 2001)，但也能開(kāi)發(fā)

50、新的出口機(jī)會(huì)，特別是在紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)業(yè)，加入WTO可以加強(qiáng)國(guó)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，提高外國(guó)直接投資的環(huán)境，使得進(jìn)口產(chǎn)出更加便宜（企業(yè)產(chǎn)出尤其是境外企業(yè)），誘使國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)加速重組(Ianchovichina et al, 2003, and Lemoine and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).</p><p>　　主要發(fā)展中國(guó)家市場(chǎng)份額的變化</p><p>　　我們依據(jù)技術(shù)類別分析了中國(guó)及其

51、鄰國(guó)在日本、美國(guó)和西歐三個(gè)主要市場(chǎng)的份額，在價(jià)值條件下，2000年中國(guó)最重要的市場(chǎng)是美國(guó)（490億美元），其次是日本（$ 36億美元）和西歐（380億美元）。世界其他國(guó)家的出口總額與中國(guó)和這些國(guó)家的出口幾乎是一樣大了，（2000年106億美元），在東亞其他地區(qū)的出口比任何主要的經(jīng)合組織市場(chǎng)都要大（74..6億美元）。</p><p>　　每一個(gè)國(guó)家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地位，可以分析在市場(chǎng)份額在1990年和2000年過(guò)去十年的變

52、化。附件表顯示如下：</p><p>　　工業(yè)制成品的總出口額：中國(guó)在日本做的最好，接著是美國(guó)，稍微有一點(diǎn)差距，在與大多數(shù)鄰國(guó)一樣，其市場(chǎng)份額在西歐增加是最弱的。韓國(guó)失去在日本和美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額，而臺(tái)灣僅在美國(guó)，香港失去了所有市場(chǎng)的份額，尤其是在美國(guó)和日本。與臺(tái)灣類似，新加坡僅失去美國(guó)的份額，亞洲四小虎在所有市場(chǎng)上搶得份額。除印度尼西亞具有相當(dāng)不溫不火的表現(xiàn)外以外，其他國(guó)家在日本市場(chǎng)獲得最大份額。</p>

53、;<p>　　資源型產(chǎn)品：由于整體出口的格局類似，中國(guó)再次引領(lǐng)著區(qū)域市場(chǎng)份額增長(zhǎng)，但是，韓國(guó)與臺(tái)灣和新加坡相比之下，其在日本的份額獲得大量增加，臺(tái)灣和新加坡不僅僅失去了日本的市場(chǎng)，而且包括美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，泰國(guó)是日本的大贏家，而印尼和菲律賓失去了美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。</p><p>　　低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品：中國(guó)龐大的市場(chǎng)份額再次集中在日本，亞洲四小虎的市場(chǎng)份額普遍受到損失，但新加坡在日本市場(chǎng)份額卻增加了，亞洲四小虎之間新的綜

54、合性能最好的是印度尼西亞。</p><p>　　中等技術(shù)產(chǎn)品：雖然中國(guó)模式再次發(fā)揮作用，但是亞洲四小虎在日本獲得大量份額，韓國(guó)失去了其在日本的市場(chǎng)，臺(tái)灣和新加坡在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上遭受損失。</p><p>　　高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品：臺(tái)灣再次從韓國(guó)偏離向日本的發(fā)展，前者顯示是該組漲幅中位居第二（僅次于中國(guó)），后者是最大的損失方，在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上，情況正好相反，新加坡與臺(tái)灣都失去市場(chǎng)份額。亞洲四小虎當(dāng)中，馬來(lái)西亞

55、和菲律賓是在日本的大贏家，但其他兩個(gè)國(guó)家也大大受益，菲律賓是美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的第二大贏家。</p><p>　　總的來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)的主要市場(chǎng)份額在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中都集中在的日本（盡管出口增長(zhǎng)的價(jià)值以美元計(jì)算），除過(guò)韓國(guó)和印度尼西亞，這也是其真正的鄰國(guó)市場(chǎng)（香港是全方位失去市場(chǎng)）。在某種程度上，我們可以解釋市場(chǎng)份額的變化是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)出口的激增，看來(lái)，亞洲四小虎從中國(guó)所遭受的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最大；最大的損失在低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品，這是可以預(yù)料的，但這沒(méi)有考慮

56、到的韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣對(duì)中國(guó)低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口，低收入的亞洲四小虎相對(duì)過(guò)低的增量反映在中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響力上，其對(duì)中國(guó)中間產(chǎn)品的出口也沒(méi)有抵消這些差額。</p><p><b>　　結(jié)論</b></p><p>　　中國(guó)出口的快速激增引起了廣泛的關(guān)注，國(guó)威脅論的預(yù)言雖然是有可能的，但有些過(guò)激，通過(guò)大量參與可以加快出口的增長(zhǎng)速度，但對(duì)鄰國(guó)出口的增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的不利影響。研究表明，出口

57、結(jié)構(gòu)是復(fù)雜的，一開(kāi)始，中國(guó)的出口是與進(jìn)口相適應(yīng)，后來(lái)，該地區(qū)的進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)趕不上它的出口增長(zhǎng)。隨著結(jié)構(gòu)的重組，為配合新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)需求而進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)恼{(diào)整，是其鄰國(guó)能夠維持出口高速增長(zhǎng)。</p><p>　　區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)中國(guó)的出口有兩個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素，首先是為了滿足其迅速增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的需求：它不能生產(chǎn)初級(jí)產(chǎn)品和資源型制成品，目前可以提供資本產(chǎn)品和面向國(guó)內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)以及更先進(jìn)的工業(yè)消費(fèi)品的中間產(chǎn)品；二是要滿足其出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的需求，這由兩個(gè)