國際貿(mào)易外文翻譯--復(fù)蘇模式中國應(yīng)該對(duì)美國的量化寬松政策感到擔(dān)心嗎

1、<p><b>　　中文3421字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)(論文)</p><p>　　外文翻譯（附外文原文）</p><p>　　學(xué) 院： 管理學(xué)院 </p><p>　　課題名稱：

2、 </p><p>　　專業(yè)(方向)： 國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易 </p><p>　　班 級(jí)： </p><p>　　學(xué) 生： </p><p>　　指導(dǎo)教師：

3、 </p><p>　　日 期： </p><p>　　復(fù)蘇模式：中國應(yīng)該對(duì)美國的量化寬松政策感到擔(dān)心嗎？</p><p>　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）今年2月在華盛頓特區(qū)發(fā)表

4、的一次演講中談到，盡管付出了各種努力，不過，這個(gè)國家的就業(yè)率回升到危機(jī)之前5%左右這一讓人更寬慰的水平可能還需要很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。演講結(jié)束后，當(dāng)被問及，目前這一輪政策在6月結(jié)束后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否有必要推出另一輪所謂的“量化寬松”（quantitative easing，簡(jiǎn)稱QE）政策時(shí)，伯南克回答說，“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將會(huì)按其以往的方式做出決策”——也就是通過觀察各種經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來做出決策，其中就包括失業(yè)率。幾個(gè)月以來，美國的失業(yè)率一直徘徊在10%左右。如果美

5、國的失業(yè)率持續(xù)高企，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出臺(tái)第三輪量化寬松貨幣（QE）政策的可能性就將不斷增加。但如果美國繼續(xù)執(zhí)行QE政策，將會(huì)在世界各地遭致抗議，其中的代表就是中國。</p><p>　　前兩輪量化寬松政策分別于2009年3月和2010年11月開始實(shí)施，期間，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)大量印鈔用以購買銀行的債券以及抵押貸款證券——購買的目的旨在刺激美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，降低借貸成本。但是，全球各地都能聽到這樣的批評(píng)：第二輪量化寬松政策同樣觸發(fā)了全球商

6、品價(jià)格的急劇飆升，北京的官員對(duì)此深表認(rèn)同，并稱，熱錢因此流入了自己的國家。他們認(rèn)為，如果出臺(tái)第三輪量化寬松政策，也將會(huì)產(chǎn)生這樣的結(jié)果。就這種擔(dān)心的理由是否充分的問題，專家各執(zhí)一詞。</p><p>　　上海復(fù)旦大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授田素華指出，第二輪量化寬松政策對(duì)中國的影響比第一輪更大。“第一輪量化寬松政策只是通過貿(mào)易渠道影響到了中國，而在實(shí)施第二輪量化寬松政策期間，美國的銀行和抵押貸款公司發(fā)放信貸的能力得到了加強(qiáng)，

7、所以，貨幣乘數(shù)（money multiplier）（也稱為‘貨幣擴(kuò)張系數(shù)’或‘貨幣擴(kuò)張乘數(shù)’）放大了中國受到的影響?！彼劦?。</p><p>　　位于美國華盛頓特區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略和國際研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies，簡(jiǎn)稱CSIS）的查爾斯·弗雷曼（Charles Freeman）則反駁說，第二輪量化寬松政策的主要影響是政治性的?！八尡本?/p>

8、對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的美元長(zhǎng)期政策頗感緊張，中國政府擔(dān)心，美國會(huì)長(zhǎng)期奉行弱勢(shì)美元政策（weak dollar policy）?！?曾任職美國對(duì)中國事務(wù)貿(mào)易代表助理的弗雷曼談到，“最近，中國對(duì)美國財(cái)政部和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)施壓，要求它們?cè)俅伪ＷC，量化寬松只是短期政策。”</p><p>　　美國財(cái)政部負(fù)責(zé)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的前助理部長(zhǎng)、馬里蘭大學(xué)（University of Maryland）國際經(jīng)濟(jì)政策教授菲利普·斯瓦格（Philip

9、Swagel）認(rèn)為，第二輪量化寬松政策的總體影響，尤其是對(duì)中國的影響，并不像人們想象的那么顯著?！爸袊倪^度反應(yīng)是毫無緣由的?！彼劦剑翱傮w來說，這個(gè)政策是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)發(fā)出的一個(gè)信號(hào)，它不能讓美國發(fā)生通貨緊縮，并且將有積極的表現(xiàn)如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)未能反彈。最終，這一政策對(duì)于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)以及在國際社會(huì)造成的溢出效應(yīng)也是相當(dāng)有限的?！?lt;/p><p><b>　　通貨膨脹惡化</b></p>&

10、lt;p>　　然而，盡管該政策的影響相對(duì)較小，不過，對(duì)包括中國在內(nèi)的很多經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言，溢出效應(yīng)則是在一個(gè)敏感時(shí)期發(fā)生的。上海復(fù)旦大學(xué)的金融學(xué)教授鄭輝認(rèn)為，自前兩輪量化寬松政策實(shí)施以后，在全球市場(chǎng)流通的美元更多了，從而降低了美元對(duì)其他主要貨幣的比價(jià)。他還談到，因?yàn)閲H商品是以美元定價(jià)的，所以，從石油到白糖，所有大宗商品的價(jià)格都上漲了。</p><p>　　舉例來說，3月，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織糧食價(jià)格指數(shù)（FAO Fo

11、od Price Index）——記錄一攬子食品國際價(jià)格每月變動(dòng)情況的指標(biāo)——平均為230點(diǎn)，比2月的峰值下降了2.9%，但比去年3月則上漲了37%。與此同時(shí)，石油價(jià)格則觸及到了每桶120美元的高位，這是兩年多來的最高價(jià)格水平，當(dāng)然，中東和北非地區(qū)的動(dòng)蕩也是影響目前石油價(jià)格的重要因素。</p><p>　　然而，鄭輝并不是唯一強(qiáng)調(diào)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)這種寬松貨幣政策應(yīng)該為商品價(jià)格的上漲承擔(dān)某些負(fù)責(zé)的人。正如日本銀行（Bank

12、of Japan）的一份報(bào)告指出的：“從全球來看，寬松的貨幣政策在商品價(jià)格的迅速上漲中扮演著重要的角色，這種政策既刺激了人們對(duì)商品的實(shí)際需求，同時(shí)也促使更多的投資流向了商品市場(chǎng)?！?lt;/p><p>　　對(duì)中國來說，商品價(jià)格的變化非常重要。在擔(dān)心公眾對(duì)能源和食品的更高支出出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)烈反應(yīng)的時(shí)候，高企的商品價(jià)格讓這個(gè)依賴進(jìn)口的經(jīng)濟(jì)體感到日子很不好過。“除了繼續(xù)從全球進(jìn)口這些商品以外，中國沒有多少選擇，”鄭輝表示，“即使原

13、油價(jià)格和食品價(jià)格不斷攀升，中國也不太可能減少在進(jìn)口這些商品上的開銷?！?lt;/p><p>　　然而，馬里蘭大學(xué)的斯瓦格認(rèn)為，“中國自己的貨幣政策本身就存在問題，中國通貨膨脹的最大驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是中國的貨幣政策。中國一直讓人民幣保持弱勢(shì)，并與美元‘軟掛鉤’（soft peg），從而，導(dǎo)致過多的貨幣在這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中流通，并最終抬高了通貨膨脹。”</p><p>　　這個(gè)國家的中央銀行中國人民銀行一直在

14、與通貨膨脹抗?fàn)帯Ｅe例來說，4月初，它出臺(tái)了提高商業(yè)銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率的措施，以收緊信貸，同時(shí)，它還將一年期存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率提高了25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，這是今年第二次提高基準(zhǔn)利率，也是自去年年初以來的第四次提高基準(zhǔn)利率。在此期間，中國人民銀行還稱，將允許人民幣在更大范圍內(nèi)兌換，而不僅限于包括美元在內(nèi)的七種貨幣。外匯交易員認(rèn)為，這一舉措有助于減少美元在決定中國貨幣價(jià)值上的權(quán)重。</p><p><b>　　推卸責(zé)任<

15、;/b></p><p>　　對(duì)美國而言，第二輪量化寬松政策是用以提振這個(gè)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的幾種政策杠桿之一?！耙?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)的職責(zé)就是調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行，創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)以達(dá)到充分就業(yè)，所以，核心問題是，在當(dāng)時(shí)，2010年，用以加速經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的可用手段都是什么呢？”馬里蘭大學(xué)公共政策學(xué)院的麥克?戴斯勒（I. M. (Mac) Destler）教授問道。他認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)將利率保持在很低的水平了，進(jìn)一步降低利率的空間很有限?！爱?dāng)時(shí)

16、的另一個(gè)選擇是全新的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。然而，從政治上來看似乎并不可行。所以，另一輪量化寬松政策就是僅有的幾種選擇之一了?！?lt;/p><p>　　但是，第二輪量化寬松政策的出臺(tái)時(shí)機(jī)并不“走運(yùn)”，政策的推出恰好在11月于漢城舉辦的G20峰會(huì)（G20 Summit）的前幾天，戴斯勒談到。“但是，就美國政治而言，這一時(shí)機(jī)是合情合理的。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不想讓自己看起來具有黨派性，不想讓自己看似在支持民主黨政府。因此，在中期大選剛一結(jié)束，

17、它就宣布將實(shí)施第二輪量化寬松政策，而這個(gè)時(shí)間剛好處在漢城峰會(huì)召開之前?！碑?dāng)全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在漢城聚集一堂時(shí)，包括巴西、印度和韓國在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)國家，與中國一起對(duì)美國的政策提出了批評(píng)?！暗诙喠炕瘜捤烧咦屆绹谂c中國關(guān)于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)重現(xiàn)平衡的爭(zhēng)論中只能采取守勢(shì)。因?yàn)橹袊鴮?duì)量化寬松政策感到不滿，同時(shí)，其他國家也加入了批評(píng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)舉措的陣營，所以對(duì)美國來說，在漢城峰會(huì)上讓其他國家和自己一道在貨幣升值等議題上說服中國就變得更加困難了。”</p>

18、<p>　　戴斯勒認(rèn)為，伯南克本來是可以通過在國內(nèi)外說明出臺(tái)第二輪量化寬松政策的原由而避免遭到批評(píng)的。“他本可以解釋清楚的是，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來說，為刺激美國經(jīng)濟(jì)，推行第二輪量化寬松政策的舉措是必要的；此外，該政策在國際社會(huì)產(chǎn)生的溢出效應(yīng)也是可以掌控的，而美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更為強(qiáng)勁的復(fù)蘇則會(huì)讓全世界經(jīng)濟(jì)受益?！?lt;/p><p><b>　　第三次會(huì)走運(yùn)嗎？</b></p><p

19、>　　復(fù)旦大學(xué)的田素華告誡說，美國出臺(tái)第三輪量化寬松政策的巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于，美元的信用將會(huì)因此而受到挑戰(zhàn)?！叭绻蚋鱾€(gè)國家在進(jìn)行國際貿(mào)易時(shí)避開美元，那么，美元就會(huì)回流到美國，這對(duì)美國來說會(huì)是個(gè)嚴(yán)重的問題。”</p><p>　　復(fù)旦大學(xué)的鄭輝認(rèn)為，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)一步推行寬松政策，那么，中國很可能不得不讓人民幣升值。“第三輪量化寬松政策等同于美元的另一輪競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值（competitive depreciation

20、）。因?yàn)槿嗣駧排c美元‘軟掛鉤’，所以，人民幣對(duì)其他主要貨幣的匯率也會(huì)降低。從而，日本和歐盟等中國的主要貿(mào)易伙伴就會(huì)深受不公平的貿(mào)易劣勢(shì)之苦。從這個(gè)角度來說，第三輪量化寬松政策將會(huì)對(duì)北京加快人民幣升值的步伐形成壓力?！?lt;/p><p>　　但是斯瓦格表示，讓人民幣進(jìn)一步升值對(duì)中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)有好處。“中國應(yīng)該允許人民幣升值。強(qiáng)勢(shì)的人民幣可以有效降低信貸的增長(zhǎng)，而且能有效抑制通貨膨脹。同時(shí)，即使人民幣升值對(duì)出口部門有負(fù)面影

21、響，中國也有其他選擇來保持其經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)?！?lt;/p><p>　　根據(jù)“中國金融在線”（Finance China）報(bào)道，最近，中國國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心的一位資深研究員預(yù)測(cè)，人民幣升值對(duì)出口導(dǎo)向型企業(yè)的影響不會(huì)像很多人擔(dān)心的那么顯著。雖然出口產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格會(huì)提高，不過，人民幣升值也降低了重要部件的進(jìn)口成本。</p><p>　　至于說第三輪量化寬松政策是否會(huì)刺激熱錢流入中國的問題，最近的數(shù)據(jù)表明

22、，該政策的影響可能很小。《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的《中國投資參考》（FT China Confidential）2月份發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告稱，中國外匯管理局估計(jì)，通過資本賬戶流入中國的熱錢，從2009年的1萬億美元，減少到了目前的2，900億美元，這表明，即便在實(shí)施量化寬松政策，中國也有能力有效控制資金的流入量。</p><p>　　或許，第一輪、第二輪以及或許會(huì)推出的第三輪量化寬松政策更會(huì)導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果，是世界上兩個(gè)最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的

23、口水戰(zhàn)?！皟蓚€(gè)國家都在為自己的問題而指責(zé)對(duì)方?！彼雇吒癖硎?，“事實(shí)上，美國的問題并不是中國引起的，反過來，中國的問題也不是由美國造成的?！?lt;/p><p>　　附注：本文摘自“賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)網(wǎng)站期刊”，發(fā)布日期 : 2011.04.13</p><p><b>　　附原文：</b></p><p>　　Recovery Mode: Should

24、 China Worry About the U.S.'s Quantitative Easing?</p><p>　　In a speech in February in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that despite various efforts, it could be a long time b

25、efore employment levels in the country return to more comfortable pre-downturn levels of around 5%. And when asked after his speech whether another round of the Fed's so-called "quantitative easing" would b

26、e necessary after the current round (known as QE2) comes to an end in June, Bernanke replied, “The Fed will decide the same way it always does" -- by l</p><p>　　As under the first two rounds of quantita

27、tive easing (beginning in March 2009 and November 2010) the Fed would print money and use the funds to buy bonds and mortgage-related securities -- purchases aimed at lowering borrowing costs in the U.S. and stimulating

28、the nation's economy. But officials in Beijing have echoed criticism heard elsewhere around the world that QE2 has also triggered a sharp increase in world commodity prices and an influx of hot money into their count

29、ry. They expect more of</p><p>　　Tian Suhua, an international economics professor at Shanghai Fudan University, notes that the effect of QE2 has been greater than QE1. “The first round of QE only affected Ch

30、ina through the trade channel, while in the second round, the ability of U.S. banks and mortgage companies to issue credit was strengthened, so the effect on China was amplified by the money multiplier,” he says.</p&g

31、t;<p>　　The QE2's primary effect is political, counters Charles Freeman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based public policy research center. “It is causing a lot of ne

32、rvousness in Beijing about the long-term policy of the Fed [concerning] the dollar, and the Chinese administration is worried that the U.S. will pursue a long-term weak dollar policy," says Freeman, a former assista

33、nt U.S. trade representative for China affairs. "Recently, China stepped up pressure</p><p>　　Philip Swagel, former assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department in the U.S. and pro

34、fessor of international economic policy at University of Maryland, agrees that the economic impact of QE2 in general, and on China in particular, has not been as dramatic as it is often made out to be. “Chinese rhetoric

35、is off the mark,” he says. ““QE2 is mainly a signal that the Federal Reserve will not allow deflation and would act in greater strength had the economy not rebounded.  In t</p><p>　　Inflation and Aggrav

36、ation</p><p>　　Yet even relatively small, the spillover comes at a sensitive time for many economies, including China's. Zheng Hui, finance professor at Shanghai Fudan University, says that since the fir

37、st two rounds of quantitative easing, more U.S. dollars have been circulating in world markets, weakening the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Given that international commodities are priced in dollars

38、, he says, everything from oil to sugar has become more expensive.</p><p>　　In March, for example, the FAO Food Price Index -- a measure of the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of food

39、commodities -- averaged 230 points, down 2.9% from its peak in February, but 37% above March last year. Oil, meanwhile, hit $120 a barrel -- the highest level in more than two years -- though the turmoil in the Midd

40、le East and North Africa is the big factor influencing oil prices currently.</p><p>　　Nonetheless, Zheng isn't alone in underscoring the extent to which accommodative policies, such as the Fed's, sho

41、uld shoulder some of the blame for the rise commodity prices. As a report by the Bank of Japan notes, “Globally, accommodative monetary conditions have played an important role in the surge in commodity prices, both by s

42、timulating physical demand for commodities and by driving more investment flows into … commodity markets.”</p><p>　　For China, that matters a lot. Its import-dependent economy is feeling the pinch of higher

43、commodity prices amid concerns about major public backlashes about higher fuel and food bills. “China has few choices but to continue importing those global commodities,” says Zheng. “Even if crude oil prices and food pr

44、ices keep soaring, China is unlikely to reduce its expenditures on these imports.”</p><p>　　Yet according to University of Maryland's Swagel, “China’s own monetary policy is problematic in the first plac

45、e and the biggest driver of inflation in China is the Chinese monetary policy. The main fact is that China is maintaining a weak yuan and the soft peg to the dollar forces China to have excessive liquidity that boosts in

46、flation.”</p><p>　　The country's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has been trying to combat inflation. In early April, for example, it raised the required reserve ratios of commercial

47、 banks and tightened credit, and it raised the benchmark one-year borrowing and lending interest rates by 25 basis points -- the second time that it raised the benchmark interest rate this year and the fourth time since

48、the start of last year. Around the same time, the PBOC also said it will allow the renminbi to be tr</p><p>　　Blame Game</p><p>　　As for the U.S., the QE2 was one of several policy levers pulled

49、 to improve the country's economy. “Since the responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to regulate the economy, create jobs and move to full employment, the central question is, what means were available to accelerat

50、e the recovery [in 2010]?” asks I. M. (Mac) Destler, a professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. He says the Fed was already keeping interest rates very low, leaving little room to lower rate

51、s fu</p><p>　　But the timing of the QE2's unveiling was "unfortunate,” coming as it did just days before the G20 Summit in Seoul in November, says Destler. "But it made sense in terms of U.S. p

52、olitics. The Fed does not want to look like it is partisan and supports a Democratic administration. Therefore, it announced QE2 immediately after the mid-term elections, which happened to be just before the Seoul summit

53、.” When world leaders gathered in Seoul, several countries, including Brazil, India and South Korea, </p><p>　　Destler reckons that Bernanke made a mistake in not giving a serious international justification

54、 of QE2 in time, hence putting himself under international criticism. "He should have explained that it was necessary for the Federal Reserve to implement QE2 to stimulate the U.S. economy, that the international sp

55、illover was manageable and the world would benefit from a stronger U.S. recovery,” he says.</p><p>　　Third Time Lucky?</p><p>　　Tian of Fudan University warns that the big danger of a QE3 is tha

56、t it will challenge the credibility of the U.S. dollar. “If countries around the world bypass the U.S. dollar during international trade, dollars will flow back to the U.S and that would be a serious problem for the U.S.

57、,” he says.</p><p>　　Zheng of Fudan University notes that in the event of further easing by the Fed, China will most likely have to allow the RMB to appreciate. “A third round of QE equals another round of c

58、ompetitive depreciation of the U.S. dollar,” he says. “Since the RMB maintains a soft peg to the dollar, the RMB's exchange rate will also depreciate against other major currencies. China’s major trading partners, su

59、ch as Japan and the European Union, will suffer from an unfair trade disadvantage. In this sense, </p><p>　　Enabling the RMB to appreciate further than it has in recent months might be good for China’s econo

60、my, adds Swagel. “China should allow the RMB to appreciate,” he says. “A stronger Yuan will effectively reduce credit growth and curb inflation. Even if allowing for faster currency appreciation will have a negative impa

61、ct on the export sector, China can still take action to keep its economy strong. ”</p><p>　　According to online information provider Finance China, a senior researcher with the Development Research Center of

62、 China's State Council recently predicted that the impact of an RMB appreciation on export-oriented enterprises would not be as big as many fear. Though the price of exports would increase, an appreciation would also

63、 lower the cost of imports.</p><p>　　As for whether QE3 could trigger more hot money flowing into China, recent data suggests the impact might be muted. A report published in February by FT China Confidentia

64、l said the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange estimates that the amount of hot money currently reaching China through the capital account has decreased to around US$290 billion from US$1 trillion in 2009, i

65、ndicating that even with the QEs, China has been able to handle the inflows effectively.</p><p>　　Perhaps more telling about QE1, QE2, and the prospect of QE3, is the war of words unleashed by the world'

66、s two largest economic heavyweights as a result. “The two countries are blaming each other for their problems,” says Swagel, “However, the fact is that China is not the main cause of U.S. problems and vice versa.”</p&