2013年--外文翻譯--減少旅游驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟影響研究偏見的方法（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文1500字，800單詞，4500英文字符</p><p>　　Atl Econ J (2013) 41:451–452</p><p>　　DOI 10.1007/s11293-013-9382-2</p><p>　　A N T H O L O G Y</p><p>　　Methodology to Reduce

2、 Bias in Tourism-Driven Economic Impact Studies</p><p>　　L. Taylor Damonte & John G. Marcis &</p><p>　　Thomas Rella</p><p>　　Published online: 5 October 2013</p><

3、p>　　# International Atlantic Economic Society 2013</p><p><b>　　JEL O10</b></p><p>　　Economic impact studies provide estimates of direct, indirect, and induced expenditures resulti

4、ng from an event in a community. Examples of specific activities are as diverse as the construction of a new stadium, the presence of a university in an area, or a specific cultural festival. When examining the economic

5、impact of a specific cultural festival that serves as a vehicle for tourism, it is tempting to assume that all spending by festival attendees is new spending to the community.</p><p>　　However, assuming that

6、 all direct spending by festival attendees at a tourism-related event is new, direct tourist spending introduces bias into the estimation of the economic impact; that is, some of the spending would occur even if the spec

7、ific event did not occur. The initial bias is then compounded when researchers introduce induced and indirect economic impacts based on the inflated estimate of new direct impacts. A more accurate estimate of new direct

8、tourist spending is one that would be </p><p>　　Travel spending has a prominent position in the family consumption structure. In the tourism market has been covered by the seller market to buyer's market

9、, tourism consumption has full freedom of choice. The restriction of the utility maximization into spending minimization principle, the tourism consumption choice must have a certain directivity, namely the tourists of d

10、ifferent tourist destination time combination will be the best choice. When it comes to tourism consumption, the vast majorit</p><p>　　Consequently, festival organizers should make it a goal to increase the

11、number of new tourists to the event each year. The purpose of this note is to summarize a methodology that allows a more accurate estimate of new tourist spending at a festival.</p><p>　　Following Crompton (

12、Journal of Sport Management, 1995), Tyrrell and Johnson (Journal of Travel Research, 2001), and Hodur and Leistritz (Journal of Convention</p><p>　　& Event Tourism, 2006), this study partitions festival

13、attendees into one of the following three categories:</p><p>　　Casual: those tourists who attended an event but for whom the event was not an important reason for their choice of travel to the area;</p>

14、;<p>　　Time Switcher: those tourists who indicated the event was a relatively important part of their decision to travel to the area but who traveled to the area one or more times per year regardless; and</p>

15、;<p>　　New: those tourists who do not historically travel to the area at least once per year and for whom the event was a relatively important reason for their choice of visit.</p><p>　　“Coastal Uncor

16、ked” is a spring festival produced by a nonprofit organization with Internal Revenue Service 501-C4 status that spotlights wines and cuisine in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina. A survey instrument was prepared an

17、d administered to a random sample of 216 festival attendees at the May 2011 event. From the survey instrument it was determined that 30 respondents were Casual tourists, 26 were Switcher tourists, and 39 were New tourist

18、s, with the remaining respondents being local </p><p>　　Direct spending by New tourists increased by $746,617, or 295 %, from 2010 to 2011. Utilizing MIG’s IMPLAN (2005) multipliers, indirect and induced spe

19、nding resulting only from direct spending by New tourists in 2011 was estimated at $174,973 and $254,063, respectively. This is up from indirect spending of $44,305 and induced spending of $64,301 in 2010. The increase i

20、n direct spending by New tourist parties was a function of two factors: a 41 % increase in spending per party and a 180 % increas</p><p>　　This is not to say that the spending of so-called Time Switchers or

21、Casual attendees is of little value. By definition, revenue generated by Switchers, which accounted for 40.6 % of the direct spending of all tourists attending the 2011 event was revenue that could have potentially been

22、created during a higher demand period. However, as a result of this shift in travel dates, additional capacity would, in theory, be available in the market during the higher demand dates, allowing additional and </p&g

23、t;<p>　　This study demonstrates a differential effect for the three categories. Failure to distinguish between the three categories may lead to an over-estimation of the economic impact of new tourist spending at

24、a festival event.</p><p>　　減少旅游驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟影響研究偏見的方法</p><p>　　L.泰勒達蒙特，約翰G 馬庫斯 &托馬斯·雷拉</p><p>　　在線出版: 2013年5月</p><p>　　國際大西洋經(jīng)濟學會 2013年</p><p>　　經(jīng)濟影響研究表明在社會

25、中人們對事件進行直接、間接和誘導性支出結(jié)果的預測。具體活動的例子不勝枚舉，如新體育館的建設、某地區(qū)大學的修繕或某個特定文化節(jié)的展現(xiàn)。檢測在特定文化節(jié)作為傳遞功能中的經(jīng)濟影響時，人們往往認為與會者的所有費用是社會新產(chǎn)生的支出。</p><p>　　但是人們認為參會者在旅游相關活動中的所有直接花費是一種新產(chǎn)生的直接性旅游開銷，這種想法對經(jīng)濟影響的評估產(chǎn)生了偏見；也就是說，即使某些特定活動沒有發(fā)生，但是一些支出也會產(chǎn)生

26、。當研究者基于對新的直接結(jié)果有過高的評估，產(chǎn)生誘導性間接性經(jīng)濟影響時，這種最原始的偏見就混合而成了。對新產(chǎn)生的直接性旅游支出的更準確評估是僅僅基于游客到某個地區(qū)的開支，其費用根據(jù)活動的發(fā)生而產(chǎn)生。旅游支出在家庭消費結(jié)構(gòu)中占有突出地位．在旅游市場已由賣方市場轉(zhuǎn)向買方市場之際，旅游消費就有了充分選擇的自由．受效用最大化成支出最小化原則的制約，旅游消費選擇必然有一定的指向性，即旅游者對不同旅游目的地的消費時間組合將進行最優(yōu)選擇。談到旅游消費,

27、大部分人都會將其與盲目消費、過度消費等聯(lián)系起來.那些都是非理性消費行為.但是作為人類活動行為中的很重要的一部分，非理性在我們的任何活動行為中均有體現(xiàn);人類活動中的非理性有積極的一面;認識我們消費行為中的非理性有著十分重要的指導意義；同時，旅游開發(fā)者在利用旅游者的非理性的過程中，應該注意正確引導，要以更好地服務游客為原則。</p><p>　　除此之外，節(jié)日策劃者應該從不同的角度、不同的側(cè)面烘托節(jié)日氣氛、催火節(jié)日經(jīng)

28、濟，并且制定一個目標來增加每年參與活動的新的游客數(shù)量。此文的意義在于總結(jié)方法論，使人們在節(jié)日時對新游客的花費有更準確的評估。</p><p>　　本文基于克朗普頓（體育管理雜志，1995年）、泰瑞爾和約翰遜（旅游研究雜志，2001年）以及霍德爾和雷斯特里茲（會展與節(jié)事旅游雜志，2006年）的研究，將與會者劃分為以下三種類型。</p><p>　　隨意型：參與盛會的旅游者，但是對他們而言，選

29、擇去某地區(qū)旅游時參與盛會并不是一個重要的理由；時間調(diào)控型： 認為節(jié)事是他們決定去某地旅游中相對重要部分的游客，無論他們每年去該地幾次；以及新游客型：每年至少去一次從未去過某地的游客，并且對他們而言節(jié)事是他們旅游選擇的一個相對重要原因。</p><p>　　“沿海開瓶節(jié)”是由一個非盈利性機構(gòu)發(fā)起的和美國國內(nèi)收入署501-C4局發(fā)起的，旨在重視美國南卡羅萊納州美爾特海灘的紅酒和烹飪。研究者準備好了調(diào)查工具并隨機安排2

30、16名與會者參加2011年5月的節(jié)事。</p><p>　　由調(diào)查研究表明，30名參與者是隨意型游客，26名參與者是時間調(diào)控型，39名是新游客型，而剩下的參與者是本地居民，這個調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)表示隨意型/時間調(diào)控型/新游客型的平均指數(shù)分別為2.6/3.2/3.6，而每種類型的費用支出大約分別是2400美元/1726美元/2411美元。</p><p>　　新游客型的直接費用從2010年增加了746

31、617美元至2011年，漲幅為295%。由美國投資移民就業(yè)模式乘數(shù)，僅產(chǎn)生于2011年新游客型直接費用的間接性和誘發(fā)性支出分別為174973美元和254063美元。這高于2010年44305美元的間接性費用和64301美元的誘發(fā)性費用。新游客型部分直接費用的增加歸結(jié)于兩個原因：每部分每年有41%的增長以及新游客型與會者數(shù)量增加了180%。由上述原因，隨意型游客的百分比在2011年有所下降。</p><p>　　這

32、并不是代表說所謂的時間調(diào)控型或隨意型的與會者的支出沒有研究意義。顯然，由時間調(diào)控型游客的費用占了2011年所有與會者直接開支的40.6%，這樣的開支可能產(chǎn)生在高需求期。但在理論上，這種附加能力作為變化的旅游數(shù)據(jù)，在高需求期的市場中仍可用，讓額外的和潛在高消費的游客能在旅游高峰期去目的地旅行。</p><p>　　研究表明三種分類的不同結(jié)果。未能識別三種分類時，也許會高估新游客在節(jié)日盛世時支出的經(jīng)濟影響。</