基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大壩群風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策優(yōu)化

1、河海大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大壩（群）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策優(yōu)化姓名：許智勇申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：機(jī)械設(shè)計(jì)及理論指導(dǎo)教師：周建方20080401AbstraetAsabigcountrywithlargenumberofdams，Chinashouldthiilkmuchofthedecisionsaboutdamsinfaceofriskbecauseitisnotonlyatechnicalproblemitisalsoasynthet

2、icalprobleminvolvingpolitics，economic，societyenvironmentandSOOnSinceBayesianNetworkshavemuchadvantagesinsystemriskanalysis，thisarticlemainlystudiestheBayesianNetworksapplicationindams’riskanalysisSustainedbytheOlC，e】IIfu

3、ndofnationalemphaseslaboratorythatbelongstOWuhanuniversityHydraulic＆Hydropowerdeparmaent“DamsriskdecisionresearchbasedOilBayesianNetworks’：usingtheadvantagesofBayesianNetworkinviewofsomeproblemsindamsriskdecisions，thisar

4、ticleinlxoduceBayesianNetwork’spresentresearchtheoryintothepracticalcaSCS，andhassetupakindofdamsriskanalysismodeltheresultshaveprovidedtheacademictheorytotheHydraulicworkersthemainlycompletedresultsinthisarticlea北越follow

5、ing：Therealesixpartsinthisarticle；thefirstparthasintroducedtheBayesianNetworksmathematicsfounding，basicconceptmodelingmethodandthesoftofHUGINThesecondparthasinlxodueedthebasicknowledgeofEventTree，F(xiàn)aultyTree，DecisionTree，

6、andthemethodsofIransformingETFTDTintoBayesianNetworksThethirdparthassummalizcdthepresentmethodsofcalculatingthelossofdams’wreckThefourthparthassettlaephysicalmodelandmathematicsmodeloftheactualdamsinfaceofstorminthesofto

7、fHUGIN，theoptimaldecisionwassolvedinconditionthattherainfallisdiscreterandomvariable，andthesensitivityofmainparametersisalsoanalyzedinthispartThefifthpartdeepensthecas器theoptimaldecisionsandsomeparameters’sensitivityalso

8、a聆analyzedwhenrainfalliscontinuousrandomvariableAtlastthisarticlehaspilotstudiedthesafetyandriskwhenthedamsgroupsystemisaca9∞desystemAtthe$a133etimetheoptimaldecisionandsomeusefulresults111“econcludedinthispartKeywords：B