外文翻譯--交通事故分析的可能性和局限性

1、<p>　　交通事故分析的可能性和局限性</p><p><b>　　S.Oppe</b></p><p>　　關(guān)鍵字：后果;目的;描述;限制;關(guān)注;事故分析;可能性</p><p>　　摘要：交通事故的統(tǒng)計數(shù)字，尤其國家一級的數(shù)據(jù)對監(jiān)控和預(yù)測事故的發(fā)展，積極或消極檢測事故的發(fā)展，以及對定義安全目標(biāo)和評估工業(yè)安全特別有益。事故分析是應(yīng)

2、用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顧性分析，能夠?qū)π麻_發(fā)的交通安全系統(tǒng)和特殊過程的安全措施進(jìn)行評價。目前迫切需要一個將實時事故分析與研究相結(jié)合的行為。將自動檢測和視頻錄制相結(jié)合的研究交通事故的科研論文會比較容易接受。這種類型的研究最終會對交通理念有個完善的認(rèn)識。</p><p><b>　　1．簡介</b></p><p>　　本文主要是基于個人的經(jīng)驗，研究有關(guān)交通安

3、全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。由這些經(jīng)驗推導(dǎo)出的哲學(xué)思考就像通過研究和統(tǒng)計得出的實踐觀點。而這些調(diào)查數(shù)字已經(jīng)在其他地方發(fā)表了。</p><p>　　在缺少直接觀察的事故中，許多方法論問題的產(chǎn)生，導(dǎo)致不能直接測試對結(jié)果持續(xù)討論。通過看事故視頻來討論是富有成效的。事實證明，用來解釋事故的大部分有關(guān)信息就是事故中缺少的記錄。深入研究還無法回憶起所有的必要的用來測試有關(guān)事故發(fā)生的假設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)，。尤其是車-車相撞發(fā)

4、生的車禍，這是在荷蘭城市道路交叉口錄制的視頻，一輛從岔路駛來的汽車與主干路的汽車相撞，下列問題可以問：為什么汽車來自次干路上，突然加速后又幾乎停止，撞上了在左側(cè)主路的一輛汽車呢？為什么沒有注意到正在駛來的車？是不是因為兩車從右邊駛來，司機(jī)因為前面的交叉為他們提供了可能性而斤斤計較？難道他向左看過，但他認(rèn)為停在拐角處的綠色貨車能讓他停下來？當(dāng)然，交通狀況并不復(fù)雜。目前這個事故中沒有騎自行車或行人在擁擠路口分散他的注意。如果停著的綠色車能夠

5、在五分鐘內(nèi)消失，這兩輛車可能就不會相撞。在事故發(fā)生的相關(guān)條件下，幾乎不可能觀察下一個交通行為，因為交通事故是不可預(yù)見的。由于新的視頻設(shè)備和自動檢測事故設(shè)備的不斷發(fā)展，如在收集數(shù)據(jù)方面不需要很高的成本就能變得越來越逼真。必要的增加數(shù)據(jù)類型也能更好的解釋交通中存在的危險因素。關(guān)于事故分析的可能性和限制性的問</p><p>　　應(yīng)該用下面的步驟來加以區(qū)分：</p><p>　　——檢測交通安全

6、問題；</p><p>　　——描述問題和它的主要特征；</p><p>　　——分析其原因分析和改進(jìn)建議；</p><p>　　——選擇和執(zhí)行安全措施；</p><p>　　——評價所采取的措施。</p><p>　　雖然這個周期可以由同一人或一群人做出來，而問題在每個階段（政治/管理或科學(xué)）都有不同的背景。我們用事

7、故分析來描述這一階段。做這個決定是重要的。很多關(guān)于分析結(jié)果的方法的討論由于忽視之間的區(qū)別而成為徒勞的。政治家或道路管理人員對道路的個別事故不是很留意。他們對事故的看法往往都是一視同仁，因為總的結(jié)果比整個事故中的每個人的因素重要。因此，每次事故看做一個個體，之間相互協(xié)調(diào)就會達(dá)成安全的結(jié)果。</p><p>　　研究人員研究事故發(fā)生時一連串事件中每個人的興趣。希望從中得到關(guān)于每次事故的詳細(xì)信息并能發(fā)現(xiàn)其發(fā)生的原因和有

8、關(guān)的條件。政治家們希望只是因為細(xì)節(jié)決定行動。在最高一級事故總數(shù)減少。信息的主要來源是國家數(shù)據(jù)庫及其統(tǒng)計學(xué)處理系統(tǒng)。對他來說，統(tǒng)計意外數(shù)字及其統(tǒng)計的波動來進(jìn)行事故分析。這適用于事故分析中的交通安全領(lǐng)域。因此，我們將首先描述了事故的這些方面。</p><p>　　2．事故的性質(zhì)和它們的統(tǒng)計特性</p><p>　　事故基本概念是意外，不管是其發(fā)生的原因還是引起事故出現(xiàn)的過程。兩個簡單的假設(shè)通常

9、是來描述交通事故的形成過程：</p><p>　　-事故發(fā)生的概率與以往發(fā)生的事故之間是獨立；</p><p>　　-事故發(fā)生在時間上是同性質(zhì)的</p><p>　　如果這兩個假設(shè)成立，那么事故是泊松分布。第一個假設(shè)與大多數(shù)的批判不符。事故是罕見的事件，因此不會受到以前事故的影響。在某些情況下，有一個直接的因果鏈（例如，大量的車開到一起）這一系列的事故被認(rèn)為是一個個

10、體事故但包含許多的車。這個假設(shè)并不適用于統(tǒng)計人員傷亡。傷亡人數(shù)往往與同一事故有關(guān)，因此，獨立性假設(shè)不成立。第二個假設(shè)乍一看似乎不太容易理解。穿越空間或在不同地點發(fā)生的的事故同樣具有可能性。然而，假設(shè)需要很長一段時間并且沒有緩繳期。其性質(zhì)是根據(jù)理論的假設(shè)。如果其短時間內(nèi)能成立，那么它也適用于長時間，因為泊松分布變量的總和，即使他們的泊松率是不同的，但也屬于泊松分布。對于這些時期的總和泊松率則等于為這些地方的泊松率的總和。假設(shè)與一個真正的情

11、況相比較計數(shù)，無論是從一兩個結(jié)果還是總情況來看都有一個基本情況比較符合。</p><p>　　例如，對比在一年中特定的一天例如下一天，下一個星期的一天發(fā)生的交通事故。如果條件是相同的（同一時間，交通情況相同，同樣的天氣條件等），那么由此產(chǎn)生的意外數(shù)字是相同的泊松過程的結(jié)果。這一假設(shè)可以通過估算進(jìn)行測試的兩個觀測值的基礎(chǔ)上（估計是兩個值的平均值）的速度參數(shù)。概率理論能夠考慮到這兩個觀察值的平均，用于計算的平等假設(shè)的

12、可能性。這是一個相當(dāng)強(qiáng)大的統(tǒng)計過程。泊松假設(shè)是研究了很多次，來獲得證據(jù)支持。它已經(jīng)應(yīng)用于許多情況，數(shù)的差異表明在安全性的差異然后確定是否發(fā)生意外。這一程序的主要目的是檢測在安全分歧。這可能是一個時間上的差異，或不同的地方或不同的條件。這種差異可以指導(dǎo)改進(jìn)的過程。由于主要關(guān)注的是，以減少意外的發(fā)生，這種分析可能導(dǎo)致對治療中最有前??途的領(lǐng)域。為這樣一個測試應(yīng)用程序的必要條件是，那意外的數(shù)字進(jìn)行比較是大到足以證明存在的分歧。在許多地方情況下

13、，一個應(yīng)用程序是不可能的。事故黑點分析往往阻礙了這一限制，例如，如果應(yīng)用這種測試，找出事故是否在特定的位置數(shù)是高于平均水平。該程序的描述，也可以使用，如果發(fā)生意外乃根據(jù)數(shù)的特點找到有前途的安全目標(biāo)。不僅聚集，而且還與分類泊松假設(shè)成立，而意</p><p>　　3. 行車安全政策事故統(tǒng)計的應(yīng)用</p><p>　　分析那些假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上描述的測試程序的類型及其優(yōu)點。這種應(yīng)用最好的例子是為一個國

14、家或地區(qū)進(jìn)行超過一年的安全監(jiān)測，用事故的總體數(shù)據(jù)（最終的特定類型，如死亡事故）與前幾年的數(shù)據(jù)相比較。根據(jù)數(shù)年的事故序列，能夠分析出它的發(fā)展趨勢，并大致預(yù)測以后幾年的事故數(shù)量。一旦建立了這樣一種趨勢，那么在誤差范圍內(nèi)未來一年或幾年都可以預(yù)見。從一個給定趨勢的偏差也可以進(jìn)行預(yù)測新的事件。最有名的是斯米德在1949年進(jìn)行的分析。我們將討論這個事故類型分析更詳細(xì)的內(nèi)容。</p><p>　　1、該測試應(yīng)用推廣到高階分類。

15、Foldvary和Lane（1974），在衡量強(qiáng)制佩戴安全帶的效果，誰是最早應(yīng)用于值的4路表高階相互作用的總卡方分配的。 </p><p>　　2、測試不局限于總體影響，但卡方值就可以分解模型內(nèi)子假說。另外，在雙向表，卡方總可以分解成零件表互動的作用。對1的優(yōu)勢。和2。比以前的情況是，這對許多相互關(guān)聯(lián)的（子）表和相應(yīng)的智廣場卡方檢驗是由大量分析，取而代之的是一個一卡方的確切劃分。 </p><

16、p>　　3、投入更多關(guān)注的是參??數(shù)估計。例如，在卡方分割使人們有可能以測試有關(guān)行參數(shù)的線性或二次限制或趨勢的不連續(xù)性。</p><p>　　4、分析的單位是從數(shù)到廣義加權(quán)計數(shù)。這對于道路安全分析，那里一段時間，道路使用者的數(shù)量，地點或公里數(shù)的車輛往往是必要的修正有利。最后一個選項是沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)在許多統(tǒng)計軟件包。安徒生1977年給出了一個用于道路雙向安全分析表的例子。工資保障運動的一個計算機(jī)程序。這一級沒有說明

17、事故原因分析。它會嘗試檢測安全問題需要特別注意。所需的基本信息包括事故數(shù)字，來形容不安全總額，暴露的數(shù)據(jù)來計算風(fēng)險，并找到一個高風(fēng)險的情況下或（團(tuán)體）道路使用者。 </p><p>　　4. 事故分析研究目的</p><p>　　交通安全的研究是有關(guān)的事故及其后果的發(fā)生。因此，人們可能會說，研究對象是意外。然而研究人員的興趣較少集中在這個最后的結(jié)果本身，而是多在進(jìn)程更多的結(jié)果（或不結(jié)果）的

18、事故。因此，最好是把作為他的研究對象，在流量的重要事件。一個在交通意外的過程，結(jié)果是，該實際發(fā)生是由研究者未落觀測研究的主要問題。</p><p>　　調(diào)查一宗交通意外，他將努力重建了間接來源的事件，如涉及的道路使用者，所提供的資料或目擊者有關(guān)情況，車輛，道路和司機(jī)的特點。因此這不是科學(xué)獨特的，也有一個間接的研究對象的研究更多的例子。但是，第二個困難是，該研究的對象不能被誘發(fā)。有系統(tǒng)的控制實驗手段研究只對問題方面

19、的可能，而不是問題本身。</p><p>　　間接觀察和缺乏系統(tǒng)的控制組合使調(diào)查人員很難發(fā)現(xiàn)在什么情況下造成事故的因素。雖然研究人員主要是在事故處理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有興趣，他幾乎完全信息的后果，它的產(chǎn)品，意外。此外，事故背景是復(fù)雜的。一般來說，可分為以下幾個方面： </p><p>　　-考慮到交通系統(tǒng)，交通量和組成國家，道路使用者，他們的速度，天氣條件下，路面情況，車輛，道路使用者和他們的相互作用的

20、演習(xí)，意外可以或無法預(yù)防。 </p><p>　　-由于發(fā)生事故，也對這樣的速度和車輛質(zhì)量的因素，大量的不同，碰撞角度，對道路使用者和他們的脆弱性，影響等位置的保護(hù)，傷害是嚴(yán)重或或多或少物質(zhì)損失是多還是少可觀。雖然這些方面不能獨立研究從理論的角度看，它也從由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果的優(yōu)勢，區(qū)分交通情況有潛在危險的數(shù)字，是由有一個意外的可能性，在這種潛在的危險局勢，給定一個特定事故。</p><p>　

21、　這個概念框架是對風(fēng)險的關(guān)于個別道路使用者，以及上級的決定控制器的決定制定的一般基礎(chǔ)。在風(fēng)險的數(shù)學(xué)公式，我們需要一個明確的概率空間的介紹，基本事件（的情況），可能導(dǎo)致事故組成，每個類型的事件的概率，最終收在一次事故中，最后的具體成果，損失，鑒于事故的類型。</p><p>　　另一種方法是看事故特征組合，然后找出關(guān)鍵因素。這種類型的事故分析是通過分析事故的共組或子群來開展。事故本身是一個研究的單位，但也要研究道路

22、因素：道路位置，道路設(shè)計（如一個彎道）等。</p><p>　　原文出處：SWOV institute for road safety research Leidschendam（會議記錄），記錄者，S.Oppe.</p><p>　　POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENT ANALYSIS</p><p><b&g

23、t;　　S.Oppe</b></p><p>　　Keyword：Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities</p><p>　　Abstraet：Accident statistics, especially collected at a

24、national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product

25、) evaluation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems o

26、r sa</p><p>　　1. Introduction.</p><p>　　This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These

27、 experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.</p><p&g

28、t;　　From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful disc

29、ussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident rec

30、ord. In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is</p><p>　　The following steps should be distinguished:</p><p>　　- detection of new or remaining safety problems;</p><p&

31、gt;　　- description of the problem and its main characteristics;</p><p>　　- the analysis of the problem, its causes and suggestions for improvement;</p><p>　　- selection and implementation of saf

32、ety measures;</p><p>　　- evaluation of measures taken.</p><p>　　Although this cycle can be carried out by the same person or group of persons, the problem has a different (political/managerial o

33、r scientific) background at each stage. We will describe the phases in which accident analysis is used. It is important to make this distinction. Many fruitless discussions about the method of analysis result from ignori

34、ng this distinction. Politicians, or road managers are not primarily interested in individual accidents. From their perspective accidents are often tr</p><p>　　Researchers are much more interested in the cha

35、in of events leading to an individual accident. They want to get detailed information about each accident, to detect its causes and the relevant conditions. The politician wants only those details that direct his actions

36、. At the highest level this is the decrease in the total number of accidents. The main source of information is the national database and its statistical treatment. For him, accident analysis is looking at (subgroups of)

37、 accident num</p><p>　　2. The nature of accidents and their statistical characteristics.</p><p>　　The basic notion is that accidents, whatever there cause, appear according to a chance process.

38、Two simple assumptions are usually made to describe this process for (traffic) accidents: </p><p>　　- the probability of an accident to occur is independent from the occurrence of previous</p><p&g

39、t;　　accidents;</p><p>　　-the occurrence of accidents is homogeneous in time.</p><p>　　If these two assumptions hold, then accidents are Poisson distributed. The first assumption does not meet mu

40、ch criticism. Accidents are rare events and therefore not easily influenced by previous accidents. In some cases where there is a direct causal chain (e.g. , when a number of cars run into each other) the series of accid

41、ents may be regarded as one complicated accident with many cars involved.The assumption does not apply to casualties. Casualties are often related to the same accident and </p><p>　　The assumption that reall

42、y counts for a comparison of (composite) situations, is whether two outcomes from an aggregation of situations in time and/or space, have a comparable mix of basic situations. E.g. , the comparison of the number of accid

43、ents on one particular day of the year, as compared to another day (the next day, or the same day of the next week etc.). If the conditions are assumed to be the same (same duration, same mix of traffic and situations, s

44、ame weather conditions etc.) then t</p><p>　　3. The use of accident statistics for traffic safety policy.</p><p>　　The testing procedure described has its merits for those types of analysis that

45、 are based on the assumptions mentioned. The best example of such an application is the monitoring of safety for a country or region over a year, using the total number of accidents (eventually of a particular type, such

46、 as fatal accidents), in order to compare this number with the outcome of the year before. If sequences of accidents are given over several years, then trends in the developments can be detected and ac</p><p&g

47、t;　　1. The application of the Chi-square test for interaction is generalised to higher order classifications. Foldvary and Lane (1974), in measuring the effect of compulsory wearing of seat belts, were among the first w

48、ho applied the partitioning of the total Chi-square in values for the higher order interactions of four-way tables. </p><p>　　2. Tests are not restricted to overall effects, but Chi-square values can be deco

49、mposed regarding sub-hypotheses within the model. Also in the two-way table, the total Chisquare can be decomposed into interaction effects of part tables. The advantage of 1. and 2. over previous situations is, that lar

50、ge numbers of Chi-square tests on many interrelated (sub)tables and corresponding Chi-squares were replaced by one analysis with an exact portioning of one Chi-square.</p><p>　　3. More attention is put to pa

51、rameter estimation. E.g., the partitioning of the Chi-square made it possible to test for linear or quadratic restraints on the row-parameters or for discontinuities in trends.</p><p>　　4. The unit of analys

52、is is generalised from counts to weighted counts. This is especially advantageous for road safety analyses, where corrections for period of time, number of road users, number of locations or number of vehicle kilometres

53、is often necessary. The last option is not found in many statistical packages. Andersen 1977 gives an example for road safety analysis in a two-way table. A computer programme WPM, developed for this type of analysis of

54、multi-way tables, is available at SWOV </p><p>　　4. Accident analysis for research purposes.</p><p>　　Traffic safety research is concerned with the occurrence of accidents and their consequences

55、. Therefore, one might say that the object of research is the accident. The researchers interest however is less focused at this final outcome itself, but much more at the process that results (or does not result) in acc

56、idents. Therefore, it is better to regard the critical event in traffic as his object of study. One of the major problems in the study of the traffic process that results in accidents is, </p><p>　　Investiga

57、ting a traffic accident, he will try to reconstruct the event from indirect sources such as the information given by the road users involved, or by eye-witnesses, about the circumstances, the characteristics of the vehic

58、les, the road and the drivers. As such this is not unique in science, there are more examples of an indirect study of the object of research. However, a second difficulty is, that the object of research cannot be evoked.

59、 Systematic research by means of controlled experim</p><p>　　The combination of indirect observation and lack of systematic control make it very difficult for the investigator to detect which factors, under

60、what circumstances cause an accident. Although the researcher is primarily interested in the process leading to accidents, he has almost exclusively information about the consequences, the product of it, the accident. Fu

61、rthermore, the context of accidents is complicated. Generally speaking, the following aspects can be distinguished: </p><p>　　- Given the state of the traffic system, traffic volume and composition, the mano

62、euvres of the road users, their speeds, the weather conditions, the condition of the road, the vehicles, the road users and their interactions, accidents can or cannot be prevented.</p><p>　　- Given an accid

63、ent, also depending on a large number of factors, such as the speed and mass of vehicles, the collision angle, the protection of road users and their vulnerability, the location of impact etc., injuries are more or less

64、severe or the material damage is more or less substantial. Although these aspects cannot be studied independently, from a theoretical point of view it has advantages to distinguish the number of situations in traffic tha

65、t are potentially dangerous, from the probab</p><p>　　This conceptual framework is the general basis for the formulation of risk regarding the decisions of individual road users as well as the decisions of c

66、ontrollers at higher levels. In the mathematical formulation of risk we need an explicit description of our probability space, consisting of the elementary events (the situations) that may result in accidents, the probab

67、ility for each type of event to end up in an accident, and finally the particular outcome, the loss, given that type of acciden</p><p>　　A different approach is to look at combinations of accident characteri

68、stics, to find critical factors. This type of analysis may be carried out at the total group of accidents or at subgroups. The accident itself may be the unit of research, but also a road, a road location, a road design