國際貿(mào)易專業(yè)外文翻譯----金融自由化與貨幣政策東亞合作

1、<p>　　Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy Cooperation in East Asia</p><p>　　Author：Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano and Augustine H. H. Tan </p>

2、;<p>　　Nationality: Singapore </p><p>　　Sourse and Type: SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper,Series Http://unjobs.org</p><p>　　Journal time: May 2007,P2-3,5-7,21</p><p&g

3、t;　　It is well recognized that strong domestic financial markets can play a key role in economic growth and development. Sound financial institutions and well-functioning markets facilitate the mobilization and efficient

4、 allocation of savings, thereby improving productivity and contributing to growth (Levine 2004). This is particularly important for East Asia in view of the high saving rates of the regional countries. The limited develo

5、pment of local financial markets and their small fragmented natu</p><p>　　However, as the countries in East Asia deregulate their financial sectors and develop their capital markets, a key issue that confron

6、ts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization heightens the speed and magnitude of international spillovers and may potential

7、ly increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shocks. Many studies have found empirical evidence that financial devel</p><p>　　Over the past quarter century, the combination of

8、a fixed exchange rate with an open capital account, has proven lethal in small open economies, particularly in emerging markets with weak financial systems and regulatory institutions. The fault seems to point to policie

9、s that opened the capital account prematurely while keeping the exchange rate rigid. Such a combination has often led to massive capital inflows that have overwhelmed nascent financial systems, prompting consumption and

10、asset boom</p><p>　　Sufficiently liberalized and developed domestic financial sectors are necessary to absorb and allocate capital inflows to their most efficient uses. Flexible exchange rates allow necessar

11、y international relative price adjustments and help allow asset markets to clear (Obstfeld 2004). Without exchange rate flexibility, economic adjustments will take place in terms of the price level, output or employment,

12、 or asset market volatility (Frankel and Rose 1995). Unless domestic financial sectors are su</p><p>　　2.1 Optimal Sequencing </p><p>　　Under optimal sequencing, liberalization occurs sequential

13、ly. Let Ai ∈[A1 ,…, An] represent the ith of n different stages of domestic financial sector liberalization. Let Bi ∈[B1 ,…, Bn] represent the ith of n different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. Here, one can think

14、of B1 as a pegged bilateral exchange rate and Bn as a fully floating exchange rate. Finally, let Ci ∈[C1 ,…, Cn] represent the ith of n different stages of capital account liberalization. A strict interpretation of optim

15、al</p><p>　　That is to say, first, a domestic financial sector liberalization program must be developed and implemented, i.e. all n phases of A are completed. Once domestic financial sector liberalization is

16、 fully completed, only then should the degree of exchange rate flexibility be increased. Since it generally recommended that smaller degrees of flexibility should precede full floats, the exchange rate flexibility dimens

17、ion of financial liberalization is complete when all n degrees of B are permitted. Fi</p><p>　　In practice, sequencing is subject to considerable leakage. As markets grow and domestic financial sectors devel

18、op, there will be some degree of capital flow across borders even with the best of capital controls. But at the same time, the costs of capital controls enable disparities in productivity and competitiveness between glob

19、al and insular markets to persist. Global markets are fiercely competitive and offer the truest test of productivity. It is highly unlikely that domestic financial sect</p><p>　　2.2 Optimal Cascading </p&

20、gt;<p>　　In contrast to optimal sequencing, the conceptual framework of optimal cascading requires decisions regarding the extent of domestic financial liberalization, the degree of exchange rate flexibility and t

21、he extent of capital account liberalization are taken simultaneously. Let the ith phase of a liberalization program be given by (Ai , Bi , Ci), then the design of an optimal cascading program can be represented by the fo

22、llowing rubric: </p><p>　　During nascent stages of domestic financial development, rigid exchange rates and heavy capital controls are essential and will minimize the odds of boom-bust cycles and financial c

23、risis. However, as the domestic financial sector matures, countries should make attempts to increase exchange rate flexibility and allow for longer term and stable capital inflows that serve to increase productivity, tec

24、hnology transfer and competitiveness.</p><p>　　In latter stages, domestic financial sector liberalization will need both increased exchange rate flexibility, to help with risk management and price stability,

25、 as well as later-stage capital account liberalization, such as capital outflows for the purpose of portfolio diversification and the establishment of foreign banking branches and non-bank financial institutions. The int

26、ernationalization of financial services which opens the domestic sector to foreign financial institutions frequently res</p><p>　　Once such a liberalization program is fully mature, the degree of exchange ra

27、te flexibility can be increased further. Mature domestic financial systems will be able to utilize exchange rate volatility to help adjust to shocks, smooth consumption, and help maintain price stability. At the same tim

28、e, it is unrealistic to expect that domestic financial liberalization can ever fully mature without exposure to global financial markets and capital flows, particularly in countries without a long histor</p><p

29、>　　China’s liberalization program represents the classic case of optimal cascading. From 1994 until late 2005, the yuan was pegged to the US Dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28RMB to US$1. Citing underdeveloped domestic fi

30、nancial markets and legal institutions, the Chinese central bank argued unambiguously that its banking system was not ready to handle a flexible yuan. While the yuan remained fixed to the US dollar, China did not complet

31、ely restrict capital flows. China has been the recipient of consid</p><p>　　We identify the risks associated with the liberalization attempts of China—being an economically large and influential country—as r

32、epresenting the greatest challenge to the region. Even with successful financial liberalization in China, the massive capital flows that will be generated can destabilize the region. It is thus important for countries in

33、 East Asia, including China, to optimally cascade financial liberalization by simultaneously determining the extent of domestic financial liberalizat</p><p>　　金融自由化與貨幣政策東亞合作</p><p><b>　　作者

34、：周惠關(guān)等</b></p><p><b>　　國籍：新加坡</b></p><p>　　出處及類別：新加坡管理學院經(jīng)濟和統(tǒng)計工作文件系列, Http://unjobs.org</p><p>　　發(fā)表時間及頁碼：2007年5月 P2-3,5-7,21</p><p>　　人們都清楚地認識到，強有力的國內(nèi)金融

35、市場能夠在經(jīng)濟增長和發(fā)展中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。健全的金融機構(gòu)和運作良好的市場有利于儲蓄的調(diào)動和有效分配，從而提高生產(chǎn)率和促進經(jīng)濟增長（利文2004）。這一點對東亞高儲蓄率的區(qū)域國家尤其重要。有限發(fā)展當?shù)亟鹑谑袌龊托⌒头稚⒌男再|(zhì)也導致了很大一部分儲蓄流到亞洲以外的地區(qū)。盈余的儲蓄大多被輸送到美國，美國通過直接投資和證券投資又將資金返回亞洲。促進國內(nèi)金融市場和區(qū)域金融一體化是重要的，因為它不僅有利于亞洲區(qū)域內(nèi)的儲蓄調(diào)節(jié)，而且還吸引了外國以本國貨幣

36、的名義投資。這種替代資金來源將減少東亞的依賴外幣借款，與此同時，減少該區(qū)域?qū)Τ墒欤ń?jīng)濟體）和貨幣錯配的風險暴露。 然而，由于東亞國家的金融部門放松管制和發(fā)展其資本市場，決策者面臨的一個關(guān)鍵問題更加復雜的風險正在注入金融體系。特別是，資本帳戶自由化加劇了國際外溢速度和規(guī)模，且有可能增加個別國家面對外部金融沖擊的脆弱性。許多學者發(fā)現(xiàn)的實證表明，金融發(fā)展，特別是金融開放可以提高一個國家在危機中的脆弱性（見2005 拉詹和卡明斯、賴因

37、哈特2003）。事實上，過去金融貨幣危機相當程度上可以歸咎于次序不當?shù)淖杂苫?</p><p><b>　　2.1最優(yōu)序列 </b></p><p>　　根據(jù)最優(yōu)排序，自由化有序進行。Ai ∈[A1 ,…, An]代表第i個不同階段的國內(nèi)金融部門的自由化。讓Bi ∈[B1 ,…, Bn]代表第i個不同程度的匯率彈性。在這里，可以認為B1是雙邊匯率掛鉤和BN是一個

38、完全的浮動匯率。最后，用Ci ∈[C1 ,…, Cn]代表第i個不同階段的資本帳戶自由化。一個嚴格解釋的最優(yōu)序列表明了以下概念框架： </p><p>　　這就是說，第一，國內(nèi)金融部門自由化的方案必須制定和實施，即所有N個階段完成。一旦國內(nèi)金融部門自由化全面完成，然后匯率彈性程度才可以有所增加。因為一般建議較小程度的靈活性優(yōu)于完全浮動，當所有n個程度的B都被允許后，金融自由化的匯率靈活性才算完成。最后，當且僅當國

39、內(nèi)金融部門全部自由化（即已經(jīng)從A1到An）和匯率完全實現(xiàn)靈活（即B已經(jīng)從B1到Bn）時，才應(yīng)該逐步采取放寬資本帳戶C。隨著國內(nèi)金融部門的自由化，資本帳戶自由化有其嬰兒般的步伐（接近于C1 ）如外商直接投資或長期投資為了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施用途，更高級的有短期有價證券流動自由化達到最全面的自由化和最有爭議的階段，允許短期投機性資金流動，比如對沖基金（接近于Cn）。 在實踐中，排序受制于大量泄漏。隨著市場的增長和國內(nèi)金融部門的發(fā)展，即使有最好

40、的資本控制也將有一定程度的資本跨境流動。但與此同時，資本管制成本允許全球和孤立市場上的生產(chǎn)力和競爭力存在差異。全球市場具有激烈的競爭力，并提供最真實的效率測試。國內(nèi)金融部門依靠自身的發(fā)展絕不可能具有全球金融市場同樣的質(zhì)量和特點。</p><p>　　2.2最優(yōu)階梯式滲透</p><p>　　與最優(yōu)排序相反，最優(yōu)階梯式滲透的概念框架需要國內(nèi)金融自由化程度的決定，匯率的靈活度和同時采取的資本帳

41、戶自由化程度。用(Ai , Bi , Ci)來表示金融自由化方案中的第i個階段，然后最佳階梯式滲透方案的設(shè)計可以用下列注釋表示： </p><p>　　在國內(nèi)金融發(fā)展的萌芽階段，剛性的匯率和大量的資本管制是必要的，將盡量減少繁榮衰退周期和金融危機的幾率。然而，隨著國內(nèi)金融業(yè)的成熟，國家應(yīng)努力增加匯率彈性，并允許長遠和穩(wěn)定的資本流入，有助于提高生產(chǎn)力、技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓和競爭力。</p><p>　　

42、在后期，國內(nèi)金融部門自由化既需要增加匯率的靈活性，以幫助風險管理和價格穩(wěn)定，又要后期的資本帳戶自由化，比如以投資組合多樣化為目的的資本外流和建立外國銀行分支機構(gòu)和非銀行金融機構(gòu)。國際化的金融服務(wù)使國內(nèi)部門向外國金融機構(gòu)開放不斷形成能力的建設(shè)。重要的是，國外服務(wù)提供者的商業(yè)存在通常增加了監(jiān)督和管制框架的壓力。</p><p>　　一旦這種自由化方案完全成熟，匯率彈性的程度可進一步增加。成熟的國內(nèi)金融系統(tǒng)將能夠利用匯

43、率波動來幫助調(diào)整沖擊，平穩(wěn)消費，并幫助維持物價的穩(wěn)定。與此同時，期望國內(nèi)金融自由化能甚至不通過接觸全球金融市場和資本流動是不現(xiàn)實的，尤其是在沒有私人金融銀行悠久歷史，未設(shè)立進入離岸銀行的國家。此外，更深的資本帳戶自由化將需要增加匯率的靈活性和自由化國內(nèi)金融市場。 中國自由化方案是代表了典型的最優(yōu)階梯式滲透。從1994年到2005年底，人民幣以8.28元/美元的固定匯率與美元掛鉤。引用欠發(fā)達的國內(nèi)金融市場和法律體制，中國中央銀行

44、含糊地認為其銀行系統(tǒng)還沒有準備好來處理人民幣匯率彈性。當人民幣保持對美元的固定匯率，中國并沒有完全限制資本流動。中方一直在接受大量外國直接投資帶來的資本流動和通過大量存在的外國分公司和外包業(yè)務(wù)中泄露的大量的外國分公司和外包業(yè)務(wù)類型的資本流動。最近，中國央行已允許人民幣在緊湊的波段內(nèi)浮動，同時國內(nèi)金融部門改革和適度放松資本管制繼續(xù)（艾欽格林 2005）。這些同時和全面的政策選擇具有慎重的和逐步面對最優(yōu)階梯式滲透的特征。雖然說明中國頒布的特

45、定類型的資本帳戶自由化給予國內(nèi)部門</p><p>　　我們以中國—一個經(jīng)濟大國和有影響力的國家-自由化努力中相關(guān)的風險作為對區(qū)域最大挑戰(zhàn)的代表。即使中國有成功的金融自由化，大規(guī)模的資本流動將產(chǎn)生，會破壞該地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定。因此，對于東亞國家包括中國，在符合基本的國內(nèi)機構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的前提下，通過共同確定國內(nèi)金融自由化的程度，匯率的靈活性和一定范圍的資本帳戶自由化實現(xiàn)最優(yōu)階梯式滲透的金融自由化是重要的。此外，金融的穩(wěn)定能