外文翻譯---是否杠桿、股利政策及盈利能力會影響公司未來的價值

1、<p><b>　　外文文獻翻譯譯文</b></p><p><b>　　一、外文原文</b></p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　Do Leverage, Dividend Policy and Profitability influence the Futur

2、e Value of Firm? Evidence from India</p><p>　　INTRODUCTION </p><p>　　With the ushering of economic liberalization in 1992, Indian stock market has undergone several changes over the last decade.

3、 These include introduction of new exchanges, massive computerization and electronic limit order book integrating the stock exchanges across the nation, establishing of clearing corporation and subsequent introduction of

4、 new derivative products in the market. Perhaps the most important among these changes was the establishment of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEB</p><p>　　Over the last decade corporate governance

5、has received considerable importance in Indian financial market. With the initiation of market for corporate control and activities in the merger and acquisition market, CEOs have assigned tremendous importance forcreat

6、ing value for their firms. Accordingly companies from different sectors (and/or ownership groups) have adopted different strategies to signal their earning and growth potential over the years and thereby influence their

7、stock prices. With</p><p>　　Background Literature</p><p>　　The well-developed and vibrant literature in modern corporate finance has its root in the seminal paper by Franco Modigliani and Merton

8、 Miller (1958,1963), (M-M henceforth). This branch of finance started with the assumption of perfect information and complete markets. It postulates that in a typical neoclassical market with perfect competition, absenc

9、e of agency costs, transaction and banking costs, the average cost of raising fund for any firm is completely independent of its capital structur</p><p>　　Academic literature over the last decade has documen

10、ted the effect of different strategic factors influencing the firm values for the developed countries.Rappaport (1981, 1987) has used value creation literature for corporate mergers and acquisition and underlined the im

11、portance of growth rate, operating profit, income tax rate and fixed capital investment as the major factor influencing the firms’ value. Recently some of the studies concentrated on emerging market to analyze the factor

12、s that i</p><p>　　In the modified M-M framework, literature has shown that firm’s performance depends on the capital structure (or financial policy).Ross (1977) argued that more leverage would signal the in

13、vestors about the improved firm prospect and influence the firm’s value in future. Increase in dividend payout increases the investors’ income at present and signal the expected future cash flow for the corporation. Prof

14、itability is undoubtedly one of the major factors determining the firm value. Ben Naceur an</p><p>　　India has one of the most developed stock markets in the world with large number of domestic and internati

15、onal players investing in Indian stock market. With maximum number of companies listed in the Indian stock exchanges from different industries and different ownership groups (e.g. business affiliated firms, Indian standa

16、lone, foreign standalone) and with the emphasis on corporate governance practices, India has become an important and interesting destination for such studies. Among the avail</p><p>　　This papers aims at det

17、ermining the factors influencing the probability of future firm value for Indian corporations after controlling for the industry and time specific effects. In particular this study attempts to answer the following questi

18、ons:（1）How the probability of future value creation is affected by firm’s profitability, financing pattern and the dividend pay-out policy?（2）Whether the firms belonging to business groups have different effect on probab

19、ility of value creation?</p><p><b>　　Data </b></p><p>　　The primary source of the data for this paper is PROWESS database, compiled by Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMI

20、E). This dataset is similar to the COMPUSTAT database in USA. We have selected the firms that are presently included in S&PCNX 500 index. The accounting and stock price data for these companies are extracted for the

21、year 1989-90 to 2001-02 from Prowess dataset for this study. So far we have done the univariate and bivariate analysis in the previous section.To examine the f</p><p>　　Variable Description</p><p&

22、gt;　　Market to book value ratio (MBVR) is defined as the ratio of closing price of the equity to book value of equity at the end of the financial year. MBVR is the dependent variable for the OLS regression. For the logit

23、 model the dependent variable is a binary series, which takes the value 1 if price to book value ratio is greater than one (i.e., market perceived that future value of the firm is going to increase) and zero otherwise.&l

24、t;/p><p>　　The other variables of interest include those representing Leverage Policy,Dividend Policy and Profitability that have key bearing on the firms’ future value creation. While the ratio of total amoun

25、t of long-term debt to total amount of equity capital (LEVERAGE) is included to proxy the leverage policy of the corporation, the ratio of total dividend to total earning of the firm (PAY_OUT)is included to capture the

26、dividend policy of the same. The profitability of a company, on the other hand, i</p><p>　　To control for the size of the firm we consider total assets (ASSET) of the firm as a proxy variable. To control for

27、 the differenced arising due to the firms belonging to different business groups this paper considers different dummy variables. If the firm is Among the large number of listed companies, those included in S&PCNX 500

28、 are often considered for empirical studies for their liquid nature and representative characteristics.</p><p>　　Private Indian standalone then the dummy,D_PVT_IND, take the value one and zero otherwise. If

29、, on the other hand, a firm is private foreign standalone then the dummy, D_PVT_FOR, take the value one and otherwise zero. Indian companies differ considerably access the industries. So industry dummies were used to con

30、trol for industry specific heterogeneity. Since 1990, Indian economy has undergone several changes, which have their influence on the corporate valuation. So time dummies were also inclu</p><p>　　(Insert Tab

31、le-1 here)</p><p>　　Table 1 shows the mean values and the standard deviations (in parenthesis) of the variables under consideration under six different cases (namely, all firms, large firms, small firms, gro

32、up-affiliated firms, Indian standalone firms and foreign standalone firms). The descriptive statistics reported in Table 1 shows that the value of a firm, in terms of MBVR, is higher for the small firms and the foreign s

33、tandalone firms. Large firms get more leverage than any other category of firms. Profitabilit</p><p>　　The coefficient of lagged value of leverage (-O.44) and its square term (0.007)imply that as the leverag

34、e of the firm increases, the probability of raise in future firm’s values declines at a decreasing rate. The negative influence of leverage on the probability of future value creation was observed across the ownership gr

35、oups and size. The profitability of the firm (as apparent from the coefficient of ROE) increases the probability of increase in future value creation. Point to note is, this in</p><p><b>　　Result</b

36、></p><p>　　This paper analyzed the accounting factor that influence the probability of increase in future market valuation of the firms’ listed in Indian stock exchange after controlling for the time and

37、industry specific effects. The empirical results indicate that the increase in leverage has a negative impact on the chance of future value increase of the firm. It could be because more reliance on credit increases the

38、conflict of interest between shareholders and creditors, giving more control to the man</p><p>　　Conclusion</p><p>　　This paper investigates the value creation process of the firms listed in the

39、 Indian stock market and their dependence on the accounting variables. It used an unbalanced logit model and found that the increase in profitability has a positive influence on the probability of creating future value a

40、nd the relation is stronger for foreign standalone firms as compared to private Indian standalone or business group owned firms. Leverage, one the other hand, has negative impact on the chances of increa</p><p

41、>　　Source: Saurabh Ghosh,2008“Do Leverage, Dividend Policy and Profitability Influence Future Value of Firm? Evidence from India”. Reserve Bank of India.July.pp.1-3.</p><p><b>　　翻譯文章</b></p

42、><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　是否杠桿、股利政策及盈利能力會影響公司未來的價值？介紹</p><p>　　隨著1992年以來的經濟自由化，印度股市在過去十年經歷了很多變化。這些措施包括引進新的交易所，大量電腦化及整合全國證券交易所電子限價指令書，建立票據(jù)交換結算公司和隨后在市場上引進新的衍生產品。也許這些變化中最重要的

43、是在1992年作為市場監(jiān)管的印度證券交易委員會的成立。自從它成立以來都在為縮小印度企業(yè)與投資者的信息差距方向而努力，通過指導方針、規(guī)則章程更好的實施公司日常工作管理，并通過公司控制權活躍市場，這標志著印度金融領域新時代的到來。投資者通過參與初級和二級市場沉浸在自信之中。大量新公司在1993-96進入初級市場同時S＆PCNX 500市場資本總額相比20世紀90年代有了相當大地增長。印度已漸漸浮現(xiàn)成為一個有著最大數(shù)量注冊公司的股票市場和發(fā)展

44、中國家的新興經濟體。</p><p>　　在過去十年中印度的金融市場公司在治理公司中得到了很大的重視。隨著市場對企業(yè)控制和市場并購收購活動的開始，公司行政總裁們已經在創(chuàng)造公司價值方面給予了極大的重視。根據(jù)不同的公司界別（或所有權組）公司已經采取了不同的策略，以傳遞他們多年來的收入和增長潛力的信號，從而影響其股票價格。在此背景下，本文試圖分析影響在印度股票上市的公司未來價值的因素，以及這些因素在不同類別的公司下是如

45、何作用的。</p><p><b>　　背景文獻</b></p><p>　　佛朗哥?莫迪利亞尼和默頓?米勒（1958，1963）開創(chuàng)了現(xiàn)代企業(yè)資本結構管理的新理論。這門學科的前提是完全信息和完全市場假設。即在一個完全競爭的市場中，提高公司任何代理成本、交易成本和銀行成本，其平均成本與資本結構是無關的。隨著MM理論的發(fā)展，佛朗哥?莫迪利亞尼和默頓?米勒（1963）提出

46、公司的價值是受股利政策影響的。然而，隨著時間的推移，這些簡化的假設和隨后的許多研究表明放寬資本結構確實存在問題，并有可能發(fā)現(xiàn)修改后MM理論的最佳股利政策框架。 在過去十年中，學術文獻記載了影響發(fā)達國家公司價值的不同戰(zhàn)略因素。拉帕波特（1981，1987）已提出企業(yè)兼并和收購創(chuàng)造價值的理論，并強調了企業(yè)增長速度的重要性、影響企業(yè)利潤價值的因素、所得稅率和固定資本投資。最近對新興市場影響因素的分析是對企業(yè)價值的一些集中性研究。本納克

47、爾和格里德（2002）為研究突尼斯證券交易所價值創(chuàng)造過程中使用了非平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)的隨機概率模型。它認為，如果股票市場價值超過該公司的賬面價值，則管理者成功的創(chuàng)造了價值，反之亦然。作者認為創(chuàng)造企業(yè)價值的三個主要因素是：財政政策，盈利能力和分紅政策。 印度股票市場有</p><p>　　此論文的主要數(shù)據(jù)來源是PROWESS數(shù)據(jù)庫，由印度經濟中心編制（CMIE）。這個數(shù)據(jù)集是類似于美國COMPUSTAT數(shù)據(jù)庫。我

48、們選擇的公司是目前在S＆PCNX 500指數(shù)包括在內的。這些公司的結算和股票價格數(shù)據(jù)，提取了PROWESS1989-90年度至2001-02年度的數(shù)據(jù)集。到目前為止，我們已經在前面的內容里做了一元和二元方程式。為了分析研究在印度證券交易所上市的公司未來創(chuàng)造價值的影響因素，我們研究在一個多元架構的公司的MBVR的前一年的杠桿、股利和盈利能力的影響力。</p><p><b>　　變量描述</b>

49、;</p><p>　　市場的賬面價值比率（MBVR）被定義為財政年度結束時股權價格與賬面價值最后價格的比率。MBVR是為OLS回歸因變量。對于因變量Logit模型是一個二進制序列，它的價值為1，如果價格與賬面價值比率大于一（即市場認為，該公司未來價值將增加），否則為0。</p><p>　　其他有關的因素包括代表充分利用政策，股利政策及獲利能力，對公司的未來價值創(chuàng)造的重點軸承。雖然長期債

50、務總額與總資本金額（杠桿）是包含在公司代理的杠桿政策，但就像總的股息公司（PAY_OUT）收益率是包含股利政策是一樣表現(xiàn)公司的盈利能力，另一方面，是捕捉到凈利潤比的能力，它也被稱為股東權益凈值回報率（ROE）。</p><p>　　為了控制該公司的規(guī)模，我們認為總資產是作為一個代理變量而衡量企業(yè)的規(guī)模。為了控制差分，因由于公司屬于不同的業(yè)務集團，所以本文認為則有不同的虛擬變量。如果公司是屬于上市公司企業(yè)，這些包括

51、在S&PCNX 500里的問題經常被認為是研究它的流動性和代表性特征而考慮。</p><p>　　印度私人獨立即，D_PVT_IND，取一個值，否則為0。如果，另一方面，外國私人公司是獨立的，那么，D_PVT_FOR，取一個值，否則為零。印度公司進入行業(yè)時的差異很大，所以行業(yè)人被用來控制特定行業(yè)的異質性。自1990年以來，印度經濟已經經歷了多次變化，有自己的公司估值的影響。所以時間趨勢還包括以控制時間虛擬

52、變量，以GDP平減指數(shù)平減，并以1987-88年的不變價格進行表示。</p><p>　?。ú迦氡? 1在這里）</p><p>　　表1顯示的平均值和標準偏差（括號內）根據(jù)審議六個不同的變量（即，所有的公司，大企業(yè)，小企業(yè)，集團下屬公司，印度的外國公司和獨立的獨立公司）不同的情況。描述性統(tǒng)計報告表1顯示，一個公司的價值在MBVR而言，比小企業(yè)和外國企業(yè)獨立更高。大公司獲得比任何其他類別的

53、公司更多的杠桿作用。該公司的盈利能力的凈資產收益率計算，比印度獨立的公司高。表2顯示了皮爾遜相關系數(shù)變量矩陣。它表明MBVR有顯著的具有杠桿和公司規(guī)模，并與股利政策與企業(yè)盈利能力正相關負相關。附錄中的圖1和圖4顯示，隨著經濟自由化迎來有一個MBVR和凈資產收益率。在1992年，已逐漸減少，多年來急劇上升的。圖2顯示了自由化時期后，已經顯示出增加的趨勢。不過，派息政策不描繪任何在此期間顯著的趨勢。</p><p>

54、　　滯后值的杠桿（- O.44）及其平方項（0.007）系數(shù)表明，由于該公司增加杠桿作用，在未來的堅定的價值觀下降提高利率的可能性在下降。杠桿對未來價值創(chuàng)造負面影響的概率。本公司（作為從凈資產收益率系數(shù)明顯）的盈利增加是在未來創(chuàng)造價值可能性的增加。需要注意一點的是，這一增長是對外國公司作為獨立的比較印度獨立或集團下屬公司，并非是較高的OLS模型，派息并沒有解釋未來創(chuàng)造價值的機會。無論是在匯集模型還是在規(guī)模和所有制集團的派息具體回歸系數(shù)顯

55、著異于百分之十水平。 結果</p><p>　　本文分析了在控制時間和行業(yè)的具體影響后會計要素對于印度證券交易所上市公司未來市場價值的可能影響。實證結果表明，杠桿作用的增加，對公司未來的價值增加有負面影響。這可能是因為對信貸的依賴更增加了股東和債權人之間的沖突，提供更多的控制權給出資人，這反過來又對未來估值產生負面影響。同樣Naceur和Goaied（2002），我們發(fā)現(xiàn)去年的盈利能力的正面影響未來公司的

56、價值，盈利能力持續(xù)上升，可能預示更好的管理質量。然而，放線并沒有影響MBVR在匯集模型和跨所有制集團大小的模型下未來盈利的概率。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)可能是因為一個事實，即分紅的未來表現(xiàn)各不相同在印度證券交易所上市公司相當。</p><p><b>　　結論</b></p><p>　　本文探討了在印度上市的公司的價值創(chuàng)造過程及其對會計變量的依賴。它使用一種不平衡Logit模型，發(fā)

57、現(xiàn)在盈利的增長對創(chuàng)造未來價值的可能產生積極的影響同時這種關系當是外國獨立公司與印度私人擁有的公司或企業(yè)集團的公司相比時更強。杠桿，在另一方面，對于公司未來價值的增長有負面作用，這種關系始終貫穿于管理和運行團隊中。這可能是由于股票持有人和債權人所得到的股票價格之間的利益沖突。但是，公司股息政策不能顯著影響，在印度股票上市的公司創(chuàng)造未來價值的可能性。</p><p>　　出處: Saurabh Ghosh. 是否杠桿