海外保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)專(zhuān)題報(bào)告：美國(guó)健康險(xiǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展之路-20190217-興業(yè)證券-52頁(yè)

1、 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明 - 2 - 海外行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告 海外行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告 Overweight Overweight （Maintained） Finance Finance Contac ontact Bo Bo Zhang Zhang zhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cn SAC: S0190117050055 SFC: BMM189 Analyst Analy

2、st Zhang Yidong Zhang Yidong Deputy Head of Research at Industrial Securities Co. Ltd. General Manager of Overseas Market Research Center zhangyd@xyzq.com.cn SAC: S0190510110012 SFC: BIS749 A Brief Brief History Histo

3、ry of U of U.S. Health Insurance Industry S. Health Insurance Industry —1840s-1966: Early Stage of Development of U.S. Health Insurance The early stage of development of U.S. health insurance can be divided into four per

4、iods. 1).1840 1).1840-1990: 1990: featured by the combination of health insurance, charity and Medicaid; 2). 2). 1900 1900-1930: 1930: Workers’ Compensation bloomed; 3). 1930 3). 1930-1940: 1940: Commercial health ins

5、urance replaced Workers’ Compensation; 4). 1940 4). 1940-1966: 1966: Precedent and preferential policies in tax treatment encouraged employers to purchase group benefits. Commercial health insurance forged. —1966-2000:

6、Public Health Care Plan Established, Managed Care Rises In 1965, the U.S. government established Public Health Care Plan, which resulted in high medical expense and social insurance outlay. In the 1990s, managed care em

7、erged. The terminology was used to describe a group of activities ostensibly intended to reduce the cost of providing for profit health care and providing health insurance while improving the quality of that care. Chin

8、a’s hina’s Health Insurance Industry at Nascent Level Health Insurance Industry at Nascent Level —In 2016, China’s insurance penetration and density was 4.2% and $388 USD, respectively. As of 31st Dec., 2018, health in

9、surance constituted 26.3% of life insurance. The Thirteeth Five-Year Plan of Insurance Industry of China says that the proportion of commercial health insurance in social security system shall increase by 2020; that po

10、licies and intiviatives of commercial and public health care information-sharing should be instituted; that managed care should be studied. Health Management Corporations Health Management Corporations Thrive Thrived,

11、 China’s Insurance Companies Value the Opportunity , China’s Insurance Companies Value the Opportunity —Aetna’s PB valuation boosted after transforming to health management corporation. As of 31st Dec., 2017, the propor

12、tion of Insured and ASC member of the Company is 36% and 64%, respectively. Investment income contributed 1.6% to its revenue. —NCI: Transisting Business to Health Insurcance. As of 30th June 2018, health insurance con

13、stituted 32.8% of the Company’s business, higher than that of other listed insurance companies in Hongkong. 2018H1, health insurance constituted 55.5% of its initial premium. —Pingan: Fintech Builds the Great Healthcare

14、 Business Format. As of 30th June 2018, health insurance constituted 19.6% of the Company’s business. 2018H1, Pingan Good Doctor, the mobile platform of Pingan Health Cloud, severd approximately 230 million users and c

15、onsulted 300 million users, YoY of 122.2%. Pingan Healthcare And Technology Company has covered more than 200 cities and 2,300 hospitals in China. China’s China’s Life ife Insurance nsurance Industry ndustry is s

16、Worthy for orthy for Strategic trategic Allocation llocation —As of February 15, 2019, Hong Kong listed insurance companies had an average PEV of 0.96, while mainland insurance companies had an average PEV of 0.75. Ch

17、ina’s life insurance industry has controllable risk, a stable long-term development outlook, and is worthy for strategic allocation. Potential risks: Potential risks: 1). Fluctuations in capital markets caused by macr

18、o economy change; 2). Growth of premium income fall below expectation; 3). Policy changes in China’s insurance industry; 4). Operation risk of insurance companies. A Brief A Brief History History of U.S. f U.S. Healt

19、h Insurance Industry: Health Insurance Industry: Origin, Development and Significance rigin, Development and Significance 2/17/201 /2019 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明 - 4 - 海外行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告 海外行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告 圖 29、 1960-2000

20、 美國(guó)衛(wèi)生費(fèi)用支出構(gòu)成 ......................................................... - 19 - 圖 30、 1960-2000 美國(guó)衛(wèi)生費(fèi)用支出同比增速 ................................................. - 19 - 圖 31、 美國(guó) 1960-2000 年國(guó)家衛(wèi)生支出與 GDP 增速 ....................

21、.................. - 20 - 圖 32、 美國(guó) 1960-2000 年國(guó)家衛(wèi)生支出占 GDP 比重 ...................................... - 20 - 圖 33、 2005 年團(tuán)體健康險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)不同產(chǎn)品類(lèi)型占比........................................... - 23 - 圖 34、 2008 年商業(yè)健康險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)不同產(chǎn)品類(lèi)型占比.....

22、...................................... - 23 - 圖 35、 管理式醫(yī)療特點(diǎn) ....................................................................................... - 24 - 圖 36、 管理式醫(yī)療各參與主體簡(jiǎn)單管理 ..........................................

23、................. - 24 - 圖 37、 保險(xiǎn)公司參與衛(wèi)生醫(yī)療全過(guò)程 ............................................................... - 26 - 圖 38、 美國(guó) 2000-2016 年健康支出結(jié)構(gòu)按來(lái)源 ................................................ - 28 - 圖 39、 商業(yè)保險(xiǎn)支出占個(gè)人

24、健康支出比例（2000-2016） .............................. - 28 - 圖 40、 我國(guó)醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)量（1978-2017） .................................................. - 30 - 圖 41、 公立醫(yī)院及民營(yíng)醫(yī)院占比（2017 年）...................................................

25、 - 30 - 圖 42、 中國(guó)衛(wèi)生總費(fèi)用及 GDP 占比 ................................................................. - 31 - 圖 43、 2015 年中美德英日醫(yī)療費(fèi)用支出結(jié)構(gòu) .................................................. - 31 - 圖 44、 中國(guó) 65 歲以上人口及同比增速 .......

26、...................................................... - 32 - 圖 45、 中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)常住人口數(shù)及占比 ................................................................... - 32 - 圖 46、 全國(guó)健康險(xiǎn)原保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入及同比增速.......................................

27、......... - 32 - 圖 47、 全國(guó)健康險(xiǎn)原保費(fèi)收入占?jí)垭U(xiǎn)總保費(fèi)比例............................................ - 32 - 圖 48、 美國(guó)歷年壽險(xiǎn)密度及人均 GDP .............................................................. - 33 - 圖 49、 美國(guó)歷年壽險(xiǎn)深度及人均 GDP ..........

28、.................................................... - 33 - 圖 50、 美國(guó)歷年壽險(xiǎn)密度及人均 GDP 同比增速.............................................. - 33 - 圖 51、 美國(guó)歷年壽險(xiǎn)深度及密度同比增速 .......................................................

29、 - 33 - 圖 52、 中國(guó)歷年人身保險(xiǎn)密度及人均 GDP ...................................................... - 34 - 圖 53、 中國(guó)歷年人身保險(xiǎn)深度及人均 GDP ...................................................... - 34 - 圖 54、 2015 年各國(guó)保險(xiǎn)深度 ...................

30、........................................................... - 35 - 圖 55、 2015 年各國(guó)保險(xiǎn)密度 .............................................................................. - 35 - 圖 56、 S&P 500 及 S&P MHCI 指數(shù)走勢(shì) ........

31、................................................... - 35 - 圖 57、 2017 年健康福利管理公司主營(yíng)收入 ...................................................... - 35 - 圖 58、 健康福利管理公司股價(jià)（2012.1.3-2018.11.28） ..................................

32、 - 36 - 圖 59、 安泰 PB 走勢(shì)強(qiáng)于傳統(tǒng)壽險(xiǎn)公司 ............................................................. - 36 - 圖 60、 安泰來(lái)源于外部客戶的總營(yíng)業(yè)收入 ....................................................... - 36 - 圖 61、 安泰各業(yè)務(wù)板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入占比 ...........

33、.................................................... - 36 - 圖 62、 安泰發(fā)展歷史 ........................................................................................... - 37 - 圖 63、 安泰健康計(jì)劃會(huì)員總?cè)藬?shù) ............................

34、........................................... - 41 - 圖 64、 安泰市占率按會(huì)員人數(shù) ........................................................................... - 41 - 圖 65、 安泰會(huì)員人數(shù)按產(chǎn)品類(lèi)型 .................................................

35、...................... - 41 - 圖 66、 安泰會(huì)員人數(shù)占比按產(chǎn)品類(lèi)型 ............................................................... - 41 - 圖 67、 2017 年按地區(qū)各會(huì)員類(lèi)型占比 .............................................................. - 42 - 圖 6

36、8、 2017 年按產(chǎn)品各會(huì)員類(lèi)型占比 .............................................................. - 42 - 圖 69、 2016 年安泰盈利情況 .............................................................................. - 43 - 圖 70、 2017 年安泰盈利情況 ....

37、.......................................................................... - 43 - 圖 71、 安泰醫(yī)療福利邊際按保險(xiǎn)類(lèi)型 ............................................................... - 43 - 圖 72、 安泰扣費(fèi)前收入按業(yè)務(wù) ............................

38、............................................... - 43 - 圖 73、 安泰投資資產(chǎn)情況 ................................................................................... - 44 - 圖 74、 安泰投資資產(chǎn)分類(lèi) ..........................................

39、......................................... - 44 - 圖 75、 安泰投資資產(chǎn)情況 ................................................................................... - 44 - 圖 76、 安泰投資資產(chǎn)分類(lèi) ................................................

40、................................... - 44 - 圖 77、 公司保費(fèi)收入占比按險(xiǎn)種 ....................................................................... - 45 - 圖 78、 公司健康險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入及同比增速 .........................................................