2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、investmentresearchThisrepthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLimited.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE45.UBSdoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthe

2、firmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.??GlobalResearch6March2018ChinaIntegratedNaturalGasIsgaspricerefmalivepi

3、pelineseparationdeadAnticonsensusviewsonChinanaturalgasOurinvestmentthesisincludesthreenonconsensusviews.Webelieve:1)realisedwellheadcitygategaspriceincreaseswillexceedexpectations(201820)2)Chinawillnotcreateanationalgas

4、pipelinecompany3)LNGimptscanstillsurprisetotheupsideupto2020EafterwhichweexpectcheaperalternativestoLNGtoregainmarketshare.OurbullishdemviewonChinascoaltogasconversionremainsintact.UBSEvidenceLabreptChinaAirQualityTracke

5、rsupptsourviewthatmuchcoaltogassubstitutionisstillrequiredtoimproveairquality.WeaddPetroChina(Buy)backtotheUBSKeyCalllistnewlyaddKunlunEnergy(Buy)tothelist.GaspricesexpectedtorisepipelineseparationanunlikelyeventInNovemb

6、er2017theNationalDevelopmentRefmCommission(NDRC)stateditsgoalofmemarketientedgaspricingby2020.Thefollowingelementsaresupptive:1)risingwellheadgaspriceshistically2)unfulfilleddem3)risingpricesofsubstitutefuels4)agrowingsh

7、areofgassupplywithunregulatedprices.Webelieveregulatswillpreferthirdpartyaccesstoexistingpipelineoperatsoverthefmationofanationalpipelinecompany.Ourvisitswithgaspolicyadvissexpertsprovidefurtherevidenceofourviews.PetroCh

8、ina(aUBSKeyCall)(Buy):realisedgaspriceswillbealongtermdriverWebelieveitsrecentsharepricereflectsthe2017profitwarningtheinoilpricesgasimptrisks.Ourinvestmentcaseisbasedon:1)itsstrongoperationalleveragetooilprices(robustEP

9、Sgrowthin2018E)2)upsiderisktomarketdividendexpectations3)longtermmoisationofitsupstreamgasassets(gaspricerefmstillalive)4)aderiskingofstreampipelineassets(pipelineseparationcouldbescrapped).Alongtermblueskyscenarioinwhic

10、hcitygatepricesfullyoffsetthemarginalcostofsupply(LNGimptcosts)wouldadd2535%toourlongtermearningsestimatesvaluation.Kunlun(anewUBSKeyCall)(Buy)ENNEnergy(Buy)arewellpositionedstreampipelinesmakeup40%ofKunlunsEPSvaluation.

11、Themarkethasbeenpricingintheriskofpipelineseparationat1.0xPBV.Aresolutecommitmenttothestatusquofpipelineownershipcouldseethemarketattributing1.5xPBVanadditional30%toKunlunsvaluation.OurtopgasutilitiespickisENNEnergy(Buy)

12、.WeseemultiplepositivecatalystsincludingpotentialincreasesinitspayoutratiothepotentialdisposalofitsNthAmericanassetslowergascostsviaLNGimpts.ChinanaturalgascompanyvaluationsShareSharePricePricePotent.Potent.Div.YieldDiv.

13、YieldPEPEPBVPBVROEROEPCEPSPCEPSEVICEVICROICROICRatingRatingpricepriceTargetTargetUpsideUpside18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E19E19EUpstreamstreamUpstreamstreamPetroChinaPetro

14、ChinaBuy5.246.9032%5.7%5.6%13x11x0.6x0.6x5%6%2.8x2.7x1.0x1.0x5%6%KunlunKunlunBuy6.959.8041%3.3%3.9%9x7x1.1x1.0x13%14%4.3x3.9x1.1x1.0x10%12%SinopecKantonsSinopecKantonsBuy4.575.7025%2.4%2.7%8x7x1.0x0.9x12%13%5.9x5.4x1.1x1

15、.1x6%7%Gasutilities:Gasutilities:ENNEnergyENNEnergyBuy58.8077.0031%3.3%4.1%12x10x2.6x2.2x23%24%9.4x7.9x3.0x2.9x32%40%CRGasCRGasBuy25.6534.0033%2.6%3.2%13x11x2.4x2.1x20%20%9.6x8.2x2.8x2.4x31%35%ChinaGasChinaGasSell23.2022

16、.503%2.2%2.6%16x13x3.7x3.0x26%25%14.3x11.7x3.3x2.9x19%21%HK&ChinaGasHK&ChinaGasSell15.3014.008%2.8%3.0%26x24x3.3x3.2x13%13%19.5x18.3x3.4x3.3x11%11%BeijingEnterpriseBeijingEnterpriseBuy41.6560.0044%2.8%3.0%8x7x0.8x0.7x10%

17、11%5.4x4.8x0.8x0.7x4%4%Note:Abovedataasof5March2018.Source:ReutersUBSestimatesEquitiesChinaEnergyPeterGastreichAnalystpeter.gastreich@85229716121KenLiuAnalystken.liu@85229717516BensonChenCFAAnalystbenson.chen@85237122597

18、SimonPowellAnalystsimon.powell@85229717772AlexXuAssociatealexa.xu@862138668841AbigailSunAssociateAnalystabigail.sun@85229717469ChinaIntegratedNaturalGas6March2018??3ChinaIntegratedNaturalGasUBSResearchP3OURTHESISINPICTUR

19、ESreturn?ChinagasdemgrowthbreakdownSource:UBSestimatesWebelievesignificantopptunitiesfcoaltogassubstitutionremainalthoughwebelievetherateoffcedconversionswillbememoderatethanin2017IncrementalgassupplyintoChina(bcm)Note:C

20、BM=Coalbedmethane.Source:ChinaCustomsNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)UBSestimatesLowercostsourcesofgasareexpectedtogainmarketshareafter2020Shanghaicitygatepricealternativefuels(US$mmbtu)Source:ReutersNDRCWINDUBSestimatesR

21、isesinthepriceofalternativefuelsstrongdemgasshtagestheNDRCstargetofmarketientedpricingrefmby2020appearconducivetorealisedgaspriceincreases(wellheadcitygate)PricecashEPSbsfrom2008Source:ReutersUBSestimatesWebelievethemark

22、etisnotpricinginthelongtermupsidepotentialfourtoppicks5%13%6%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%ganicgrowthImpactofcoaltogasswitchingImpactofoiltogasswitching201620ECAGR510152025303511A13A15A17E19E21E23E25EConventionalTightCoaltogasOf

23、fsheShalegasCBMPipelinegasLNG051015Jan15Jun15Nov15Apr16Sep16Feb17Jul17Dec17LPG(60%Butane40%Proane)BrentFueloilCitygateprice(Shanghai)024681012141620082009201020112012201320142015201620172018PTR(PriceCashEPS)Kunlun(PriceC

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