barclays global traders guide - 13 july 2012

1、ECONOMICSRESEARCHGlobal|13July2012PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSIMPTANTDISCLOSURESSTARTINGAFTERPAGE9GLOBALTRADERSGUIDEKeydataeventsUS?InChairmanBernanke’ssemiannualmoarypolicyrepttoCongress(TuesdayWednesday)weexpecthimto

2、reinfcethemessagefromtheJuneFOMCstatementthatthecommitteeispreparedtotakefurthereasingactionasappropriatebuttogivenoindicationthatsuchactionisimminent.?Welookfa0.1%mmincreaseintheheadlineCPIinJune(Tuesdayconsensus:0.0%la

3、st:0.3%)a0.2%mmincreaseintheceCPI(consensus:0.2%last:0.2%).?Weconsensusfecasta0.2%mmincreaseinJuneretailsales(Mondaylast:0.2%)withareboundinvehiclesalesoffsetslightlybydeclinesingasolinesales.Withinthiswelookfanincreaseo

4、f0.2%mminceretailsales(consensus:0.0%last:0.4%).Europe?InEuropethemaineventnextweekwillbetheEurogroupmeeting(Friday).EuroareafinanceministerswillmeettofinalisesigntheMemumofUnderstingwithSpain.OncethishasbeensignedtheEFS

5、Fisexpectedtomakeavailable€30bnbytheendofJuly.HoweverdetailsoftherecapitalisationneedsfeachbankwillbegivenonlyafterindependentauditingstresstestingcompletethedetailedbottomupanalysisofSpanishbanks(secondhalfofSeptember).

6、?OnthedatasideonMondaywetheconsensusfecasttheeuroareafinalHICPfJunetobeunrevisedfromthepreliminaryestimateat2.4%yycepricestoremainunchangedat1.6%yyinJune.WelookftheeuroareaHICPxtoto115.31from115.38.WeexpecttheMayeuroarea

7、tradebalancetoremaininpositiveterrityreachingasurplusof€7.5bn(Mondaylast:6.2).?IntheUKonTuesdaywefecastJuneCPIinflation(consensus:2.7%)unchangedat2.8%yyRPIinflationalsounchangedat3.1%yy(consensus:3.0%).WeexpecttheJulyMPC

8、minutes(Wednesday)toshowthecommitteevotedunanimouslytoincreaseQEto￡375bntokeepBankRateunchangedat0.5%.OnWednesdaywefecastaverageearningsgrowthof1.5%3my(consensuslast:1.4%)theILOunemploymentrateunchangedat8.2%(consensus:8

9、.2%)inMay.WefecastJuneretailsalestohaveincreased0.4%mm(Thursdayconsensus:0.6%last:1.4%).WeexpectJunePSNBxat￡11.0bn(Fridayconsensus:13.6last:17.9)PSNCRat￡9.2bn(last:4.4).Asia?InJapanweestimatetheMayindexofallindustryactiv

10、itystayedflatmm(Thursdayconsensus:0.3%last:0.1%).WeexpectinflationinIndiatoremainstubbnlyhighat7.5%yy(Mondayconsensus:7.6%last:7.6%)Q2CPIinflationinNewZealtobeinlinewiththeRBNZ’sfecastof0.5%qq(Mondayconsensus:0.5%last:0.

11、5%).MarionLaboure33(0)144588936marion.laboure@ContentsGlobaleconomicscalendar2Globalkeyevents6Calendaroffthcomingcriticalevents7Fecastgrossissuancebycountries9Barclays|GlobalTradersGuide13July20123Thursday19JulyPeriodPre

12、v2Prev1LatestFecastConsensusSouthAfrica:Interestrateannouncement%Jul5.505.505.505.505.5007:00E17:ECBnonpolicymeeting11:00Turkey:Benchmarkreporate%Jul5.755.755.755.7512:00Germany:ChancellMerkelspeaksonaidtoSpainatBundesta

13、gdebate01:30Australia:BusinessconfidenceindexQ23.01.01.004:30Japan:Indexofallindustryactivity%mmMay0.10.30.10.00.306:00Swi:TradebalancebnJun1.51.32.507:30h:ConsumerconfidenceindexJul32384008:00E17:ECBcurrentaccount€bnsaM

14、ay1.210.34.608:00Italy:Industrialders%mm(yy)May0.3(13.2)3.5(14.3)1.9(12.3)08:30UK:Retailsales%mm(yy)Jun2.1(3.2)2.4(1.1)1.4(2.4)0.4(2.1)0.6(2.3)08:30UK:Retailsalesexl.fuel%mm(yy)Jun1.8(2.7)1.1(0.3)0.9(3.0)0.4(2.5)0.4(2.5)

15、12:30US:Initialjoblessclaimsk(4wma)14Jul388(387)376(386)350(377)370(371)13:00Belgium:ConsumerconfidenceindexJul1210101014:00US:Leadingindicatsindex%mmJun0.20.10.30.10.114:00US:PhiladelphiaFedmfgindexJul8.55.816.610.08.01

16、4:00US:ExistinghomesalesmnsaarJun4.474.624.554.584.6222:45NewZeal:migrationJun25080016002:00Japan:5yJGBAuction2500bn04:00Malaysia:182dNotesAuctionMYR0.1bn08:30Spain:2y5y&7ySPGBAuctions€3bn08:50France:3y4y&New5yBTANAuctio

17、ns€9bn09:30UK:2052GiltAuction￡1.75bn09:50France:7yOATiAuction€0.6bn09:50France:10y&28yOATeiAuctions€0.9bn17:00US:10yTIPsAuction$15bnFriday20JulyPeriodPrev2Prev1LatestFecastConsensusE17:EurogroupmeetingItaly:LowerHouseofP

18、arliamentgivesfinalapprovaltoESMFiscalPact(Tentative)Spain:EFSFreleasesnewschedulefSpainbailout14:00Mexico:Overnightrate%Jul4.504.504.504.5001:30Australia:Imptpriceindex%qqQ20.02.51.21.501:30Australia:Exptpriceindex%qqQ2

19、4.01.57.00.003:00NewZeal:Creditcardspending%mmJun0.40.20.406:00Germany:PPI%mm(yy)Jun0.6(3.3)0.2(2.4)0.3(2.1)0.2(1.8)08:00Taiwan:Exptders%yyJun1.63.53.008:30UK:PSNBx￡bnJun17.817.617.911.013.608:30UK:PSNB￡bnJun15.519.915.6

20、12.311.708:30UK:PSNCR￡bnJun16.523.24.49.212:00Pol:Ceinflation%yyJun2.42.72.32.412:00Brazil:IPCA15inflation%mmJul0.430.510.180.160.1619:00Argentina:Economicactivityindex%yyMay5.64.10.60.40.7Sunday22JulyPeriodPrev2Prev1Lat

21、estFecastConsensusGlobal:EUIMFofficialsvisitCyprusHSBCFlashChinaManufacturingPMI(to2507)Jul49.348.448.2Monday23JulyPeriodPrev2Prev1LatestFecastConsensusE17:FeignministersmeetinBrussels15:30Israel:Baserateannouncement%Jul

22、2.502.502.252.25Philippines:FiscalbalancePHPbn(to2707)Jun28.631.019.901:30Australia:Producerpriceindex%qq(yy)Q20.6(2.7)0.3(2.9)0.3(1.4)05:00Singape:CPI%yyJun5.25.45.007:00Swi:M3%yyJun6.66.36.208:00Taiwan:Industrialproduc

23、tion%yyJun3.41.80.214:00E17:FlashconsumerconfidenceindexJul19.919.319.8UK:New30yLinkerSyndication￡4bn02:30Kea:20yBondsAuctionKRW750bn09:00Germany:New12mBubill(24Jul13)€3bn12:50France:BTFauction€8.5bnTuesday24JulyPeriodPr

24、ev2Prev1LatestFecastConsensusE17:GeneralAffairsministersmeetinBrusselsFrance:UpperHouseofParliamentsupplementarytheamendedbudgetbill(to2607)02:30Australia:RBAGovernStevensspeakstoAnikaFoundationinSydney12:00Hungary:Baser

25、ateannouncement%Jul7.007.007.007.00Vietnam:CPI%yyJul10.548.346.9006:45France:BusinessclimateindexJul95939206:58France:“Flash“manufacturingPMIindexJul46.944.745.206:58France:“Flash“servicesPMIindexJul45.245.147.907:28Germ

26、any:“Flash“manufacturingPMIindexJul46.245.245.007:28Germany:“Flash“servicesPMIindexJul52.251.849.907:58E17:“Flash“manufacturingPMIindexJul45.945.145.107:58E17:“Flash“compositePMIindexJul46.746.046.407:58E17:“Flash“servic