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1、U.S.EnergyInfmationAdministration|ShtTermEnergyOutlookJune20171June2017ShtTermEnergyOutlook(STEO)FecasthighlightsGloballiquidfuels?NthSeaBrentcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$50perbarrel(b)inMay$2blowerthantheAprilaverage.EIAf

2、ecastsBrentspotpricestoaverage$53bin2017$56bin2018.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricesarefecasttoaverage$2blessthanBrentpricesinboth20172018.NYMEXcontractvaluesfSeptember2017deliverythattradedduringthefivedayperiode

3、ndingJune1suggestthatarangeof$39bto$64bencompassesthemarketexpectationfWTIpricesinSeptember2017atthe95%confidencelevel.?TheganizationofthePetroleumExptingCountries(OPEC)metonMay25announcedanextensiontovoluntaryproduction

4、cutsthroughMarch2018thatwereiginallysettoendinJune2017.EIAfecastsOPECcrudeoilproductionwillaverage32.3millionbarrelsperday(bd)in201732.8millionbdin2018.?EIAfecaststhatimpliedglobalpetroleumliquidfuelsinventieswilldecline

5、byabout0.2millionbdin2017thenincreasebyanaverageof0.1millionbdin2018.?U.S.crudeoilproductionaveragedanestimated8.9millionbdin2016.U.S.crudeoilproductionisfecasttoaverage9.3millionbdin201710.0millionbdin2018.The2018fecast

6、exceedsthepreviousrecdlevelof9.6millionbdsetin1970.?Fthe2017summerdrivingseason(April–September)U.S.regulargasolineretailpricesarefecasttoaverage$2.46gallon(gal)comparedwith$2.23gallastsummer.Thehigherfecastgasolineprice

7、isprimarilytheresultofahigherfecastcrudeoilprice.Thefecastannualaveragepricefregulargasolinein2017is$2.38gal.Naturalgas?U.S.drynaturalgasproductionisfecasttoaverage73.3billioncubicfeetperday(Bcfd)in2017a1.0Bcfdincreasefr

8、omthe2016level.Thisfecastincreasewouldreversea2016productiondeclinewhichwasthefirstannualdeclinesince2005.Naturalgasproductionin2018isfecasttobe3.3Bcfdabovethe2017level.?InMaytheaverageHenryHubnaturalgasspotpricewas$3.15

9、permillionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)5centsMMBtuhigherthaninApril.NewnaturalgasexptU.S.EnergyInfmationAdministration|ShtTermEnergyOutlookJune20173PetroleumnaturalgasmarketsreviewCrudeoilPrices:Brentfrontmonthcrudeoilprice

10、sdeclinedby89centsperbarrel(b)sinceMay1settlingat$50.63bonJune1.TheWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)frontmonthcrudeoilpricedeclinedby48centsbduringthesameperiodsettlingat$48.36bonJune1(Figure1).MayBrentWTImonthlyaveragespotpric

11、eswere$1.98b$2.54blowerrespectivelythantheAprilaverages.TheganizationofthePetroleumExptingCountries(OPEC)metonMay25announcedanextensiontovoluntaryproductioncutsthatwereiginallysettoendthismonth.TheagreeduponOPECcrudeoilp

12、roductiontargetwillremainat32.5millionbarrelsperday(bd)throughtheendofthefirstquarterof2018.ThenonOPECcountriesthatparticipatedintheiginalsixmonthagreementmetwithOPECministersonthesamedaywithRussiabeingtheonlynonOPECmemb

13、erthathasfmallyagreedtoremainapartytotheextendedcuts.TheexpectationsofoilmarketparticipantsregardingtheOPECannouncementwerelikelyalreadysettledintheweeksleadinguptothemeetingasvariousOPECministersmadepubliccommentsaboute

14、xtendingthecuts.Althoughfrontmonthcrudeoilpricesdeclinedbyalmost5%onthedayoftheannouncementsuggestingmanyparticipantswereexpectingalargerlongercutpricescontinuedtradingwithinarangeestablishedoverthepast68monthsaroundthe$

15、50blevel.ConcernsregardingthehighlevelofgloballiquidfuelsinventiesrelativetotheirfiveyearaveragelevelappearedtobeasignificantconsiderationinOPEC’sdecisiontoextendproductioncutsthroughMarch2018.Commercialliquidfuelsinvent

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