[教育]戰(zhàn)略咨詢?nèi)腴T—市場容量估算-業(yè)務(wù)

1、估算Guesstimation,,,,Jason Zhou,未經(jīng)CareerVenture許可，任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)不得用于商業(yè)目的,,Before classOur objective and methodology,1,Objective:Understand what Guesstimation isHow to get the answerHow to present the answerBe a masterOur

2、method:ConversationQuestion leadWe do it together,,IntroductionWhat is Guesstimation?,2,Guesstimation is more than market sizingGuesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common sense,,Rea

3、l work,3,Market sizing to drive business decisions,5_85,IntroductionHow to get the answer in real work?,Highest level: check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/ Retailers -End CustomersI

4、n real work without dataCold call or in-depth interviewsLit research,4,,IntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?,Back of the envelope questionNo data, no internet, no questions Will be given

5、 as:A single case or part of a caseBrain teaser questions,5,,IntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?,To test:Common senseBusiness senseAnalytical capability CalculationCommunication to describe an

6、d summarize Comfort in real work,6,,How to get the answerThe methodology,Have a try ?,7,,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,How to get the answerThe methodology,Clarify the question Landing/depa

7、rting Domestic/international Laying out the structure # of passengers=# of planes landing per day x # of passengers per planeDeep dive on each element # of planes landing per day = # of runways x # of planes landing

8、 on each runway per day# of planes landing on each runway per day = # of hours airport operates for landing per day / time taken for a plane to landProbe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense

9、zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions for sensitivity check,8,,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,How to get the answerTips,1. Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather y

10、our thoughts2. Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers3. When making assumptions, use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages (e.g. age groups 0-20 etc.) 4. Clearly label units5. Avoid numerical ranges as

11、 they complicate the solution6. Use a “sniff test” or “sanity-check” the validity of each calculation7. It’s ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer8. Interpret interviewer body language9. Communic

12、ate each step clearly and concisely, and your thinking process10. Don’t overcomplicate the solution – simple is super11. Try to offer multiple appraoches,9,,How to get the answerCase in group,10,,On average, how much

13、does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?,How to get the answerCase in group,How many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?,11,,How to get the answerCase in group,How

14、 many gas stations are there in Shanghai?,12,,How to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?,13,Top down / bottom upCommon segmentation dimensions Age, gender, income, season, penetration, utilizationYo

15、u can always further breakdown by thinking about Process, value chain, highly correlated variables …,,How to present the answerFace to face case,14,,Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?,How to pre

16、sent the answerFace to face case,15,,How many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?,16,,How to present the answ