保險行業(yè)2019年投資策略估值底部負債端與資產(chǎn)端的探戈

1、目錄索引負債端壓力緩解，高質(zhì)量壽險持續(xù)發(fā)展...........................................5行業(yè)保費今年首次轉(zhuǎn)正，新單降幅持續(xù)收窄..................................5保費結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)調(diào)整向好....................................................6險種期限持續(xù)拉長..............................

2、..........................8財險龍頭地位穩(wěn)固，商車費改或提升綜合成本率..............................9長端利率下行壓力抬升，投資端或承壓..........................................11行業(yè)整體投資結(jié)構(gòu)平穩(wěn)...................................................11投資收益率受市場影響下滑.....

3、..........................................12長端利率下行，750均線仍有延遲.........................................132019展望：開門紅或持續(xù)調(diào)整，質(zhì)量發(fā)展仍是主調(diào)...............................14開門紅進入調(diào)整增速時期.................................................

4、14保費增長由粗放式增長模式向質(zhì)量式增長過度...............................15EV結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，利差占比持續(xù)縮小..........................................16剩余邊際持續(xù)積累，保險利潤釋放的新指標.................................17估值仍有潛力，關(guān)注反彈契機.......................................

5、......19投資建議....................................................................21風險提示....................................................................21表4：營運經(jīng)驗差異對EV溢利貢獻增加（%）...........................................