社服及零售行業(yè)2019年度投資策略雙主線選股，cagr支撐價(jià)值成長(zhǎng)估值，超跌優(yōu)選彈性個(gè)股

1、證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可（20一、2018前三季度休閑服務(wù)行業(yè)概況....................................................................................................................6二、各細(xì)分行業(yè)概況................................................

2、..............................................................................................7三、重點(diǎn)公司2018前三季度經(jīng)營(yíng)情況...........................................................................................................

3、.........9（一）中國(guó)國(guó)旅：2018前三季度基本符合市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)未來持續(xù)較高增長(zhǎng)............................9（二）宋城演藝：主業(yè)增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健，業(yè)績(jī)符合預(yù)期....................................................11（三）廣州酒家：穩(wěn)健與擴(kuò)張并舉，餐飲共食品齊飛................................................

4、12（四）中青旅:景區(qū)內(nèi)容豐富客流適度優(yōu)化，客單提升明顯.........................................13四、2018年前三季度商貿(mào)零售板塊概況...............................................................................................................16五、零售行業(yè)宏觀數(shù)據(jù).......

5、.................................................................................................................................18六、雙十一電商銷售總結(jié)..............................................................................

6、.......................................................21（一）2018年雙11全網(wǎng)銷售增速放緩............................................................21（二）天貓雙11增速略超預(yù)期，阿里生態(tài)聯(lián)動(dòng)“Allin”......................................................

7、.....................................23七、零售行業(yè)重點(diǎn)標(biāo)的........................................................................................................................................25（一）天虹股份：內(nèi)生增效業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期，下沉外拓逆勢(shì)成長(zhǎng).......

8、...................................25八、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.......................................................................................................................................................26目錄證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證

9、監(jiān)許可（20圖表34零售行業(yè)歸母凈利潤(rùn)及同比（億元，%）....................................................16圖表35零售行業(yè)毛利率及凈利率情況（%）........................................................16圖表36零售行業(yè)三項(xiàng)費(fèi)用率情況（%）..........................................

10、..................16圖表37零售行業(yè)各板塊2018Q3業(yè)績(jī)狀況（億元，%）...............................................17圖表38百貨板塊單季度營(yíng)收及增速（億元，%）....................................................17圖表39百貨板塊單季度凈利潤(rùn)及增速（億元，%）.........................

11、.........................17圖表40超市板塊單季度營(yíng)收及增速（億元，%）....................................................17圖表41超市板塊單季度凈利潤(rùn)及增速（億元，%）..................................................17圖表42黃金珠寶板塊單季度營(yíng)收及增速（億元，%）..................

12、..............................18圖表43黃金珠寶板塊單季度凈利潤(rùn)及增速（億元，%）..............................................18圖表44社零當(dāng)月值及當(dāng)月同比....................................................................18圖表45CPI、食品CPI當(dāng)月同比增速............

13、.................................................18圖表46限額以上分品類當(dāng)月同比數(shù)據(jù)比較..........................................................19圖表47必選消費(fèi)當(dāng)月同比增速....................................................................19圖表48必選

14、消費(fèi)當(dāng)月同比增速....................................................................19圖表49地產(chǎn)后周期消費(fèi)品類當(dāng)月同比增速..........................................................20圖表50汽車石油類消費(fèi)當(dāng)月同比增速..............................................

15、................20圖表51全國(guó)網(wǎng)上零售額累計(jì)值及累計(jì)同比..........................................................20圖表52全國(guó)網(wǎng)上零售額累計(jì)值及累計(jì)同比..........................................................20圖表53網(wǎng)上零售額占社零總額比重............................

16、....................................21圖表54網(wǎng)上商品（吃穿用）零售額累計(jì)同比........................................................21圖表55歷年雙十一全網(wǎng)銷售額及增速..............................................................21圖表56歷年雙十一包裹數(shù)及增速........

17、..........................................................21圖表57歷年雙十一客單價(jià)及增速..................................................................22圖表582018年雙十一全網(wǎng)各電商平臺(tái)銷售額占比...................................................22

18、圖表5920162018年雙十一全網(wǎng)各平臺(tái)份額.........................................................22圖表602018年雙十一全網(wǎng)品類銷售Top10排名.....................................................23圖表61歷年天貓雙十一銷售額及增速.........................................

19、.....................23圖表62歷年天貓雙十一客單價(jià)....................................................................23圖表63天貓雙十一歷年實(shí)時(shí)交易數(shù)據(jù)..............................................................23圖表642018年阿里數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)體20個(gè)成員首次參加雙11....

20、..............................................................................................................................24圖表65三公里美好生活——阿里巴巴城市生活未來圖景..............................................25圖表66天虹股份營(yíng)收及yoy(億元，%

21、).....................................................................................................................25圖表67天虹股份歸母凈利潤(rùn)及相應(yīng)yoy(億元，%)...........................................................................