售電量預測及其相關(guān)決策的研究與應(yīng)用.pdf

1、東北大學碩士學位論文售電量預測及其相關(guān)決策的研究與應(yīng)用姓名：費江華申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：系統(tǒng)工程指導教師：許寶棟2003.1.1東北大學碩士學位論文AbstractTheResearchandApplicationofForecastanditsRelatedDecisionoftheQuantityofSoldElectricityAbstractItisthetrendofreformationfrommonopolytofree

2、competitionforelectricpowerindustryUndertheenvironmentofcomplicatedandchangefulelectricpowermarket，electricpowerenterpriseneedtohandleaffairsaccordingtotheobjectiveregulationofthepowermarket，shouldrealizethechangefromsub

3、jectivedecisiontoobjectivedecisionandfromqualitativedecisiontoquantitativedecisionTheforecastworkofelectricpowermarketingseemtobemoreandmoreimportant，particularlyforecastofquantityofsoldelectricityisthepreconditionandfou

4、ndationofmanydecisionproblemsofelectricpowermarketThisthesismainlystudiestheforecastmethodsanditsrelateddecisionofquantityofsoldelectricity，anddesignsthesystemofforecastanditsrelateddecisionofquantityofsoldelectricityFir

5、st，thisthesisconstructsthemodelsystemofforecastanditsrelateddecisionofquantityofsoldelectricitySecond，thisthesisbuildstheseasonalproportionmodel，theimprovedback—propagationnetworkmodel，themultiplefuzzylinearregressionmod

6、elandthecombinedforecastmodelaboutquantityofsoldelectricity，andthemethodsprovestobehighlyeffectiveandfeasiblebyexamplesThird，thisthesisbuildsasetofindicatorsystemforchoosingtargetmarketofelectricitymarketing，andappliesfu

7、zzysyntheticevaluationintoquantifyingindicatorsofelectricitysupplyingenterpriseandconsumer，thengetsoppositeimportance—degreebystandardizedcalculation，choosestargetmarketintermofoppositeimportancedegree，andacaseisappliedt