6.開放的國際經濟

1、Chapter 13 A Macroeconomics Theory of the Open Economy,Open EconomiesAn open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world.,A Macroeconomics Theory

2、of the Open Economy,Key Macroeconomic Variables in an Open EconomyThe important macroeconomic variables of an open economy include:net exports net foreign investmentnominal exchange ratesreal exchange rates,A Macroe

3、conomics Theory of the Open Economy,Basic Assumptions of a Macroeconomic Model of an Open EconomyThe model takes the economy’s GDP as given.The model takes the economy’s price level as given.,SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LOAN

4、ABLE FUNDS AND FOR FOREIGN-CURRENCY EXCHANGE,The Market for Loanable FundsS = I + NCOAt the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of investment and net c

5、apital outflows.,The Market for Loanable Funds,The supply of loanable funds comes from national saving (S).The demand for loanable funds comes from domestic investment (I) and net capital outflows (NCO).,The Market for

6、Loanable Funds,The supply and demand for loanable funds depend on the real interest rate. A higher real interest rate encourages people to save and raises the quantity of loanable funds supplied.The interest rate adjus

7、ts to bring the supply and demand for loanable funds into balance.,Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Quantity of,Loanable Funds,Real,Interest,Rate,The Market for Loanable Funds,At the equilibrium intere

8、st rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net foreign investment.,The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,The two sides of the foreign-currency excha

9、nge market are represented by NCO and NX.NCO represents the imbalance between the purchases and sales of capital assets.NX represents the imbalance between exports and imports of goods and services.,The Market for Fore

10、ign-Currency Exchange,In the market for foreign-currency exchange, U.S. dollars are traded for foreign currencies.For an economy as a whole, NCO and NX must balance, or:NCO = NX,The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

11、,The price that balances the supply and demand for foreign-currency is the real exchange rate.,The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,The demand curve for foreign currency is downward sloping because a higher exchange

12、rate makes domestic goods more expensive.The supply curve is vertical because the quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow is unrelated to the real exchange rate.,Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exc

13、hange,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Quantity of Dollars Exchanged,into Foreign Currency,Real,Exchange,Rate,The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,The real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for dollars.At the equil

14、ibrium real exchange rate, the demand for dollars to buy net exports exactly balances the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency to buy assets abroad.,EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY,In the market for lo

15、anable funds, supply comes from national saving and demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow.In the market for foreign-currency exchange, supply comes from net capital outflow and demand comes from

16、net exports.,EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY,Net capital outflow links the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market.The key determinant of net capital outflow is the real interest rate.,Figure 3 Ho

17、w Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,Net Capital,Outflow,Real,Interest,Rate,Simultaneous Equilibrium in Two Markets,Prices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange mar

18、ket adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets.As they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net foreign investment, and net exports.,Figure

19、 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(a) The Market for Loanable Funds,(b) Net Capital Outflow,Real,Interest,Rate,Real,Interest,Rate,(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchan

20、ge,Quantity of,Dollars,Quantity of,Loanable Funds,Net Capital,Outflow,Real,Exchange,Rate,HOW POLICIES AND EVENTS AFFECT AN OPEN ECONOMY,The magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the follo

21、wing:Government budget deficitsTrade policiesPolitical and economic stability,Government Budget Deficits,In an open economy, government budget deficits . . . reduce the supply of loanable funds,drive up the interest

22、 rate,crowd out domestic investment,cause net foreign investment to fall.,Figure 5 The Effects of Government Budget Deficit,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(a) The Market for Loanable Funds,(b) Net Capi

23、tal Outflow,Real,Interest,Rate,Real,Interest,Rate,(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,Quantity of,Dollars,Quantity of,Loanable Funds,Net Capital,Outflow,Real,Exchange,Rate,Demand,Demand,NCO,S,,S,,Government Budg

24、et Deficits,Effect of Budget Deficits on the Loanable Funds MarketA government budget deficit reduces national saving, which . . .shifts the supply curve for loanable funds to the left, which . . .raises interest rate

25、s.,Government Budget Deficits,Effect of Budget Deficits on Net Foreign InvestmentHigher interest rates reduce net foreign investment. Effect on the Foreign-Currency Exchange MarketA decrease in net foreign investment

26、reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency.This causes the real exchange rate to appreciate.,Trade Policy,A trade policy is a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and

27、 services that a country imports or exports. Tariff: A tax on an imported good.Import quota: A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically.,Trade Policy,Because they do not change national sav

28、ing or domestic investment, trade policies do not affect the trade balance.For a given level of national saving and domestic investment, the real exchange rate adjusts to keep the trade balance the same.Trade policies

29、have a greater effect on microeconomic than on macroeconomic markets.,Trade Policy,Effect of an Import QuotaBecause foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports, there is an increased demand for dollars in the market

30、 for foreign-currency.This leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.,Trade Policy,Effect of an Import QuotaThere is no change in the interest rate because nothing happens in the loanable funds market.There w

31、ill be no change in net exports. There is no change in net foreign investment even though an import quota reduces imports.,Trade Policy,Effect of an Import QuotaAn appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange mar

32、ket encourages imports and discourages exports.This offsets the initial increase in net exports due to the import quota.,Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(a) Th

33、e Market for Loanable Funds,(b) Net Capital Outflow,Real,Interest,Rate,Real,Interest,Rate,(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,Quantity of,Dollars,Quantity of,Loanable Funds,Net Capital,Outflow,Real,Exchange,Rate

34、,r,,r,,Supply,Supply,Demand,NCO,D,,E,,Trade Policy,Effect of an Import QuotaTrade policies do not affect the trade balance.,Political Instability and Capital Flight,Capital flight is a large and sudden reduction in the

35、demand for assets located in a country.,Political Instability and Capital Flight,Capital flight has its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries.If investors b

36、ecome concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy.Interest rates increase and the domestic currency depreciates.,Political Instability and Capital Flight,When investors around t

37、he world observed political problems in Mexico in 1994, they sold some of their Mexican assets and used the proceeds to buy assets of other countries.This increased Mexican net capital outflow.The demand for loanable f

38、unds in the loanable funds market increased, which increased the interest rate.This increased the supply of pesos in the foreign-currency exchange market.,Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

39、,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico,(b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow,Real,Interest,Rate,Real,Interest,Rate,(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange,Quantity of,Pesos,Quantity of,Loa

40、nable Funds,Net Capital,Outflow,Real,Exchange,Rate,r1,r1,D1,,,E,,Demand,S,,Supply,NCO1,,To analyze the macroeconomics of open economies, two markets are central—the market for loanable funds and the market for foreign-cu

41、rrency exchange.In the market for loanable funds, the interest rate adjusts to balance supply for loanable funds (from national saving) and demand for loanable funds (from domestic investment and net capital outflow).,,

42、In the market for foreign-currency exchange, the real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply of dollars (for net capital outflow) and the demand for dollars (for net exports).Net capital outflow is the variable tha

43、t connects the two markets.,,A policy that reduces national saving, such as a government budget deficit, reduces the supply of loanable funds and drives up the interest rate.The higher interest rate reduces net capital

44、outflow, reducing the supply of dollars.The dollar appreciates, and net exports fall.,,A trade restriction increases net exports and increases the demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. As a r

45、esult, the dollar appreciates in value, making domestic goods more expensive relative to foreign goods.This appreciation offsets the initial impact of the trade restrictions on net exports.,,When investors change their

46、attitudes about holding assets of a country, the ramifications for the country’s economy can be profound.Political instability in a country can lead to capital flight.Capital flight tends to increase interest rates and