財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及評(píng)價(jià)未來(lái)的會(huì)計(jì)【外文翻譯】

1、外文翻譯原文FinancialFecastingRiskValuation:AccountingftheFutureMaterialSource:AjournalofAccountingFinanceBusinessStudieAuth:STEPHENH.PENMANValuationinvolvesfecastingpayoffsdiscountingexpectedpayoffsfriskFecastingisoftenseenas

2、theprovinceofthestatisticianriskdeterminationtheprovinceofassetpricing.Thispaperelabatesontheideathatfinancialfecastingriskdeterminationvaluationareamatterofaccounting.Accountingnotonlyprovidesinfmationtofecastpayoffsbut

3、alsospecifiesthepayoffstobefecasted.Furtheraccountingdeterminesthetransitionfromthepresenttothefuturethusimplicitlytheevolutionaryparametersthatastatisticianmightestimateffecasting.Accountingalsobearsonriskdeterminationi

4、nthewayithlesuncertaintyaccdinglyaccountingisinvolvedinboththenumeratthedenominatofavaluationmodel.Indeedavaluationmodelisamodelofaccountingfthefuturetheeffectivenessofavaluationmodelridesontheaccountingprinciplesemploye

5、d.Thispaperelabatesononeidea:Financialfecastingriskdeterminationvaluationareamatterofaccounting.Fecastingisoftenseenastheprovinceofthestatistician.Thepapermakesthepointthatfecastingaccountingaresomuchlinkedthatonecansayt

6、hatfecastingisreallyamatterofaccountingfthefuture.Riskanalysis(fvaluation)hasbeentheprovinceof‘a(chǎn)ssetpricing’infinance.Thepaperarguesthataccountingalsobearsonriskdeterminationintroducingtheideathatassetpricingalsoinvolves

7、accountingfthefuture.Accdinglyaccountingisverymuchthefocusinvaluation.Indeedthepaperopensupthepossibilitythatallaspectsofvaluationcanbecarriedoutwithinanaccountingframewk.Fecastingriskdeterminationareverymuchattheheartof

8、practicalvaluation.Assetvalueisdeterminedbyfutureuncertainpayoffssovaluationrequiresfecastingunderuncertaintywithboththefecasttheuncertainty3.Componentsoffinancialstatementstietoearningsbookvaluesaccdingtofixedstructural

9、relationssuchthatfinancialstatementnumbersaggregatetoearningsbookvaluesinadeterministicway.Accountingfeature1impliesthatratherthanfecastingcashflowsfvaluationonecanequivalentlyfecastearningsbookvalues.Fecastingcanbeseena

10、samatterofaccountingfthefuturewiththataccountingdefinedbyhowearningsbookvaluesaremeasured.Fecastingcashflowsimplicitlyinvolvespurecashaccounting.Accrualaccountingmodifiesthefecasttotargetaparticularmeasurementofearningsb

11、ookvalues.Thefirstderinfecastingistospecifytheaccountingtheissueofhowoneaccountsfthefuture.Theimpliedresearchquestiontheniswhataccountingbestfacilitatesfecastingthevaluation.Cashaccountingaccrualaccountingcanbeencompared

12、ontheirutilityffecastingvaluationsocandifferentfmsofaccrualaccountingIFRSU.S.GAAPaccountingfexample.Accountingisamatterofdesignfutilitarianpurposes—inthiscasevaluation—sotheaccountingresearcher(ultimatelytheaccountingsta

13、rdsetter)asks:WhataccountingbestservesfecastingvaluationHisticalcostaccountingFairvalueaccountingAnewdesignIntheirconceptualframewkdocumentstheFASBIASBfirmlyembracetheideathataccountingservestofecastfuturecashflows.Butth

14、eissueismesubtle:Accountingnumbersarenotjustthepredictbutalsothetargetofthepredictionalbeitwiththepurposeoffecastingfuturecashflows.Accountingfeature2infmsthatthespecificationofaccountingfthefuturealsospecifiestheaccount

15、ingfthepresentaccountingallocatestoperiodstothepointallocatesbetweenthepresentthefuture.Accdinglyaccountingprinciplesdeterminethetransitionfromthepresenttothefuturesofecastingoffutureaccountingnumbersfromcurrentobservedn

16、umbersisalsoamatterofaccounting.Statisticalfecastingspecifiesthatevolutionwithparametersarisesfromaprocessestimatedusingthedatadictatedbynature.Accountingspecifiestheevolutionusingtheprocessdictatedbytheaccountingprincip

17、lesemployed.Accountingisselfreferentialwithfuturenumbersspecifiedasthetargetffecastingdeterminedinpartbytheaccountingfthecurrentnumbers.Thatselfreferencedirectsthefecasting.Accountingfeature3saysthatearningsbookvaluearec